Drought in Illinois, September 10 to 30, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
626 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to warm to above average through
  Wednesday.

- Dry conditions persist early this week and bring heightened
  fire concerns through Wednesday.

- A tropical system is set to bring some beneficial rainfall
  Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Dry weather continues the next few days with increasing
temperatures. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s (pushing 90
a few places) tomorrow and in the upper 80s and lower 90s Wednesday.
Sfc high pressure begins to move off to the east today through
Wednesday following the departure of an upper level trof. In terms
of fire weather, RH Values are their lowest this afternoon with a
few places seeing 15-20%. They still remain fairly low tomorrow and
improve somewhat on Wednesday in the 20-30% range. NBM has been
running a bit too warm with dewpoints, so went with the NBM 10th
percentile for dewpoints through tomorrow. Also, the upper level
smoke that is around today should be gone by tomorrow afternoon as
the upper level pattern shifts.

Thursday onward the concern shifts to a tropical system currently in
the Bay of Campeche. Tropical storm Francine is forecast to be a
hurricane when it makes landfall in Louisiana Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Remnants of Francine are on course to head this
way and potentially bring some beneficial rainfall to the area
starting on Thursday. Any track deviations would result in
different potential amounts but as of now the total rainfall
expected has increased to 2-5" with the highest amounts being
over SEMO. The storm doesn't look to move too much once it gets
over us and so totals have trended higher, though the ongoing
drought conditions should help to minimize flooding concerns to
areas that see higher amounts. It's still a little too early to
tell but this could be a similar situation to Beryl back in July
and could also bring severe weather potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Vsby reductions with patchy fog are possible late night in
climatologically favored sites near water. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected with clear skies and winds around 5 kts
tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...ATL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
305 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101200-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
305 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024 /405 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

While winds are light today, dry conditions will present a
heightened risk of fire danger this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Dry conditions will continue to produce a heightened risk of fire
danger Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

A weakening tropical system may work its way through the region
late this week. While heavy rainfall is possible, flooding
potential should be limited due to the ongoing drought
conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.