Drought in Oklahoma, September 1 to 30, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 918 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

As of mid evening...showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon
had mostly dissipated or moved out of the forecast area. A few
remaining showers remained in a weakening state across Northeast
Oklahoma...with a few ongoing showers still in the terrain of far
Northwest Arkansas. However...cloud tops were continuing to
warm with decreasing lightning potential which suggests this
activity should continue to weaken through late evening.

Will continue to hold a slight chance of showers/storms overnight
as the main nearly stationary frontal boundary is expected to
remain over the CWA tonight. The greater potential for additional
development at this time looks to be in the hours leading up to
daybreak across Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas.

Also overnight...ample amounts of moisture over the region
combined with little to no flow at the surface and aloft could
create the potential for patchy areas of reduced visibility late
tonight into early Sunday morning. The greater potential for this
is forecast ahead/south of the front across far Eastern Oklahoma
and also far Northwest Arkansas. Thus...have inserted a mention of
patchy fog for these locations.

Temperatures this evening have cooled into the 70s from the
afternoon rains and the many outflow boundaries moving through
the region. Dewpoints tonight look to hold in the mid 60s to mid
70s for most locations...which should keep temps from cooling much
farther overnight. Forecast low temps in the 60s to mid 70s
continues to seam reasonable. For the evening update...have
adjusted PoP/Wx grids based on the mentioned above and also added
minor adjustments to the hourly temp/dewpoint trends to account
for latest trends and observations. The rest of the forecast seems
to be on track at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Scattered showers and storms will continue on Sunday as the frontal
boundary lingers across the area. The best chances of showers/storms
will be across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Strong gusty
winds and locally heavy rain will be possible with the strongest storms.

Drier air works into the region Sunday night into Monday in the wake of a
reinforcing cold front. This will keep any shower and storm activity on
Monday confined to southeast Oklahoma.

Low shower and storm chances continue Tuesday into Thursday, mainly across
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas as a weak upper level system wanders
across the area.

Temperatures will not stray a whole lot from normal during this time-frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024

TEMPO IFR conditions are expected to affect all terminals except
BVO in the next 6 to 8 hours, with both low ceilings and light
fog impacts forecast. The NW AR terminals should be most affected,
with the lowest ceilings and visibilities expected at those
sites. Conditions should improve toward midday, with concerns then
shifting to the potential for thunderstorm impacts. Will maintain
the VCTS mention from the earlier TAFs at MLC and FSM, and also
include one at FYV, which should be the northern-most terminal
potentially affected. Any lingering TSRA should be away from the
TAF sites by 02/00Z, with mainly mid and high cloud prevailing
thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  86  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   70  87  67  83 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   68  86  66  83 /  10  30  10  20
BVO   60  86  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   63  83  60  82 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   63  83  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   66  85  66  81 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   62  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
F10   65  86  65  82 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  83 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
924 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
924 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 1 AM.

POOR VISIBILITY.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Eastern Oklahoma and Also Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 1 AM.

DISCUSSION...
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain across
mainly southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas overnight tonight
as a nearly stationary frontal boundary holds over the region.

Ahead and south of the frontal boundary, ample amounts of moisture
combined with little to calm winds will combine to create the
potential for patchy areas of reduced visibility overnight into
early Sunday morning. The greater potential for this is across far
eastern Oklahoma and also far northwest Arkansas. These conditions
should improve by the mid morning hours Sunday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances persist through Sunday, becoming
increasingly confined to southeast Oklahoma. Most locations will
remain dry on Monday before low thunderstorm chances return
Tuesday through Friday, primarily across southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.