A shortwave trough, crossing an environment with up to 2000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE and marginal shear, created a broken line of thunderstorms across eastern Ohio during the afternoon of July 23rd. The strongest of these storms created several instances of wind damage in Coshocton County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PBZ wrote it up.
A shortwave trough, crossing an environment with up to 2000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE and marginal shear, created a broken line of thunderstorms across eastern Ohio during the afternoon of July 23rd. The strongest of these storms created several instances of wind damage in Coshocton County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 1:18 PM EST, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 218 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperature in an unsettled pattern will continue until a Thursday cold front moves through. A warm-up is expected into the weekend with dry weather returning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon and evening; best chances across northern West Virginia. ______________________________________________________________ Upper troughing remains in place over the central CONUS to kick off the forecast, with the trough axis oriented roughly northeast-southwest from the Great Lakes into northern Texas. This feature remains generally unchanged over the next 24 hours, save for a series of weak embedded shortwaves that ripple their way through the flow. Just downstream from this trough, the local area remains firmly entrenched under a deep layer west- southwest flow, maintaining status quo with regard to the existing above-normal regional moisture and temperature trends. Two distinct features will drive rain chances today, both of which are weak shortwaves but coming in from different sources areas. One wave lifts quickly from AL/MS northeastward through WV and the mid-Atlantic coast. The other wave simultaneously rotates from the upper Midwest eastward across the Great Lakes to our north. The result is enhanced forcing to the south of the local area (central WV) and to the north of the local area (closer to Lake Erie). These will be the areas with the greatest chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, while the rest of us stuck between them (including most of southwest PA, eastern OH, and the northern WV panhandle) will see weaker forcing and thus a lesser coverage and lower chances. Rain chances generally taper everywhere overnight, with the exception being areas southeast of Pittsburgh over northeast WV where a weak 500mb jet continues to support scattered convection into Wednesday morning. Some fog is once again possible tonight with a fairly saturated boundary layer, most likely in the far northwest forecast area with the highest probability of clouds clearing. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Precipitation chances continue ahead of an approaching upper trough and attendant cold front. - Temperatures and moisture continue to trend above normal. _________________________________________________________________ The larger upper trough system that had remained in place over the central CONUS (mentioned above in the Near Term discussion) finally begins to advance eastward Wednesday and will be centered more over southern Ontario and the Ohio Valley by Thursday morning. Weak surface cyclogenesis occurs in southern Ontario and the resulting surface low lifts northeast across eastern Canada into Wednesday night, with a trailing cold front advancing southeastward across the Great Lakes. A weak pre- frontal trough that advances into the local area ahead of the approaching front could serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginal instability (HREF suggests SBCAPE ranging from roughly 500-1000 J/kg) and better organized flow aloft with the approaching trough could lead to a low-end threat for damaging winds, particularly if storms can organize into line segments as some of the CAMs might suggest. The Storm Prediction Center has areas northwest of Pittsburgh highlighted in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for this threat, in general agreement with machine learning damaging wind probabilities. Rain chances continue through Wednesday night in a moisture-rich environment under unsettled flow, though thunderstorm chances (and the associated severe threat) would diminish after dark with the loss of daytime heating and surface-based instability. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front will pass Thursday and provide the highest chance of rain this week. - Dry, warm weather is forecast for the weekend. ________________________________________________________________ The surface cold front mentioned above in the Short Term discussion is expected to pass through the local area during the daytime hours on Thursday. The front will serve as the best source of lift we will see this week and therefore brings with it the highest rain chances of the week. At this time, roughly half of ensembles continue to depict around 500 J/kg to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE and roughly 20kts of bulk shear, suggesting that storms that form along and ahead of the front may remain sub- severe, but worth monitoring. Temperatures on Thursday remain near-average, but are followed by seasonably cool temperatures Thursday night with fog potentially returning in areas that see skies clear out and that saw rain during the afternoon/evening. Ensemble clusters are in good agreement on a building ridge into the weekend and early next week that would signal high confidence in a return to a drier pattern with seasonably warm temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Largely VFR conditions are forecast through the evening hours, with a scattered-broken cumulus deck combined with a veil of high clouds. A passing disturbance and higher instability will lead to scattered showers and storms over eastern Ohio/areas north of I-80 this afternoon, while a second could provide a shower to the MGW region later this afternoon into this evening. Have included VCSH/VCTS at ZZV, FKL, and MGW as a result. Portions of southwest PA and the northern WV panhandle will be in a relative minimum of precipitation chance. Any convective activity will die off during the evening hours. Lingering mid and upper level clouds should help to suppress fog formation in many cases. Areas to the northwest of PIT have the best chance for sufficient clearing to allow formation. HREF probabilities peg eastern Ohio has having the best chance of restrictions. For now have included fog possibilities at ZZV and FKL. This is a relatively low-confidence portion of the forecast, and fog mention may need to be eventually expanded. Scattered to broken cumulus are again expected once mixing commences on Wednesday, with a mostly light southwest breeze. Most convective activity should hold off until after 18Z, but did include VCTS at PIT for that 30 hour TAF. .Outlook... Scattered showers and thunderstorms and restrictions during the afternoon and evening hours are expected Wednesday as shortwaves embedded in southwest flow cross the region. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday with the passage of a cold front. VFR returns Friday under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Milcarek NEAR TERM...Cermak/Milcarek SHORT TERM...Cermak LONG TERM...Cermak/Milcarek AVIATION...CL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 147 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029- 031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-241800- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland- Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana- Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- 147 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Milcarek
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
316 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
OHZ048-232000-
Coshocton OH-
316 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN COSHOCTON COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...
At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Gambier, or 10 miles southeast of Mount Vernon,
moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Coshocton, Warsaw, Nellie, Walhonding, Layland, Blissfield, New
Guilford, and Cooperdale.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4043 8218 4046 8211 4045 8210 4045 8186
4025 8183 4021 8218 4024 8218 4024 8220
4025 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 254DEG 22KT 4029 8231
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
RackleyThe Cleveland radar (KCLE), 129 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:46 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were blown down along Route 541.
Trees were downed along State Route 79.
A tree was downed on to Route 16.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1201281, 1201283, 1201279, 1201286.