Damaging Winds in North Carolina, May 7, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
249 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A summerlike weather pattern lingers through mid-week with mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected.
Temperatures will trend well above normal through Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms will become more numerous ahead of a strong cold
front on Thursday. Activity may linger through early Friday as the
cold front pushes east of the western Carolinas. Drier conditions
and below normal temperatures return for the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 213 PM EDT Tuesday: An active period of weather will continue
through Wednesday with multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some of
which could be severe, expected. As of this writing, water vapor
imagery depicts a large negatively tilted trough draped across the
Great Plains into the Midwest with a closed upper low spinning over
the Northern Plains. Farther east, upper ridging over the
Appalachians will breakdown and shift offshore with a highly
perturbed southwest flow regime setting up shop from the Lower
Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians. This will send
multiple rounds of storms into the area through the near term
forecast period. Action starts this afternoon with several
convective towers noted on visible satellite imagery and radar
across the mountains and foothills. This activity is expected to
further deepen over the next several hours within a moderately
unstable and weakly sheared environment. A dry sub-cloud layer
supports 700-1000 J/kg of DCAPE, thus any deeper storms could result
in locally damaging winds and isolated large hail. The greatest
threat for isolated to scattered severe storms will be across the
mountains and along the I-40 corridor. Heading into tonight, any
afternoon storms should dissipate by this evening with generally
quiet conditions persisting overnight.

By the predawn hours, a batch of showers and perhaps a couple
thunderstorms will be possible across the mountains and portions of
the Upstate. Thereafter, a residual elevated mixed layer will advect
into the area and help to keep the atmosphere capped through the
early afternoon hours. However, with time, increasing forcing for
ascent and surface heating should erode the cap and allow for
thunderstorm development. Considerable spread was noted in the high-
resolution CAM guidance as to when/where storms will develop. The
greatest coverage is expected across the mountains initially with
scattered storms into the foothills. As the afternoon progresses,
activity will likely spread across much of the area along and north
of I-85. The atmosphere will be primed for severe weather with 3000-
4000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
and 30-40kts of deep-layer vertical wind shear. This would be
supportive of large hail and damaging winds with the wind threat
becoming dominant/more widespread should convection organize into
linear segments. As such, the expansion of the slight risk from SPC
would appear warranted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday: CAMs show the potential for a couple of
rounds of convection crossing the area Wednesday night. Moderate
shear and decent elevated instability could allow some of the storms
to become strong to severe. The severe threat could continue into
Thursday as another round of convection moves through. Moderate
shear is likely, with moderate instability possible, especially if
the cap can erode and LFCs become low enough. Any convection that
does develop should quickly move east early Thursday evening.

The GFS continues to be more aggressive with the next short wave
dropping into the area Friday, and the resulting cyclogenesis. It is
the wettest guidance, but there is some response from the other
guidance. Have gone with the model blend for PoP which favors the
mountains and CLT Metro. This is still in the chance range across
the entire area. QPF that does fall will be light. Temps will be
well above normal Thursday, dropping to around normal Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday: Not much change in the forecast this
period with short waves rotating through a low amplitude long wave
trough over the eastern CONUS. Weak surface features move over or
near the area in association with the short waves through Monday.
There may be enough moisture for isolated to low end scattered
showers across the mountains, but any QPF will be light with a dry
forecast elsewhere. Model differences develop Tuesday with a
stronger wave rotating through the upper trough producing
cyclogenesis along the Gulf Coast with the resulting low moving
south of the area. How far south is the question with a drier,
farther south track and wetter, farther north track. Have gone with
the guidance blend which has low end chance PoP developing. Temps
below normal Saturday slowly rise to slightly above normal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Afternoon cumulus field will continue to
build across the area over the next several hours. A few isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
mountains and foothills (KAVL/KHKY) with lesser confidence towards
KCLT. Mainly quiet conditions are expected overnight, but a batch of
showers could bring restrictions to KAVL/KGSP/KGMU during the
predawn hours. Thereafter, another afternoon cumulus field is
expected along with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
by the afternoon. Confidence as to when/where thunderstorms may be
tomorrow afternoon is too low to warrant mention in the TAFs just
yet. Otherwise, generally light winds are expected out of the
west/southwest.

Outlook: A cold front will approach out of the west on Thursday
before tracking over the terminals Thursday night into Friday
morning. This will lead to better convective chances, as well as
restrictions, towards the end of the workweek.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
507 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ008-009-014-101>106-108-080915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-
Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Chester-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-
507 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect portions of the
Carolina Piedmont this morning. The main threat from these storms
will be from occasional cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy
rainfall. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop across the area this afternoon and evening, mainly in areas
north of I-85. Additional storms may move into the area from east
Tennessee and north Georgia after midnight. In addition to lightning
and locally heavy rainfall, a few isolated storms will be possible
this afternoon through tonight, with locally damaging wind gusts and
large hail being the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periods of scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected through
Thursday and possibly into Friday. Conditions will remain favorable
for isolated severe thunderstorms throughout this time frame. While
storms will have primarily an afternoon and evening focus, overnight
and early morning storms will also be possible. The highest
potential for organized severe storms is expected Thursday
afternoon. In addition, the threat for locally excessive rainfall and
flash flooding will steadily increase for locations that receive
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the next 3 days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ010>013-019-107-109-080915-
Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Greenwood-
Southern Greenville-Southern Spartanburg-
507 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periods of scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected through
Thursday and possibly into Friday. Conditions will remain favorable
for isolated severe thunderstorms throughout this time frame. While
storms will have primarily an afternoon and evening focus, overnight
and early morning storms will also be possible. The highest
potential for organized severe storms is expected Thursday
afternoon. In addition, the threat for locally excessive rainfall and
flash flooding will steadily increase for locations that receive
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the next 3 days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
325 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

NCZ048-072000-
Madison NC-
325 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Marshall, or near Hot Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs, Walnut, and Spring Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8261 3571 8277 3582 8295 3584 8293
      3584 8292 3587 8292 3588 8291 3588 8290
      3589 8290 3592 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 289DEG 13KT 3585 8287

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
403 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

NCZ507-508-510-072030-
Greater Rutherford NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
403 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND
NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 402 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Rutherfordton, or near Lake Lure, moving east at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Lure, Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave,
Shingle Hollow, Green Hill, Thermal City, and Union Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8197 3553 8194 3528 8208 3537 8222
      3540 8220 3539 8226 3540 8227 3545 8228
      3547 8226 3546 8225 3547 8224 3550 8222
      3552 8223 3553 8217 3552 8214 3554 8207
      3554 8203 3555 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 283DEG 10KT 3544 8217

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
412 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

NCZ501-502-072045-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
412 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Blowing Rock, or 4 miles southeast of Blowing Rock
In Caldwell County, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blowing Rock In Caldwell County, Patterson, Upton, Kings Creek, and
Globe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8155 3610 8152 3610 8150 3609 8147
      3609 8145 3607 8144 3607 8141 3605 8139
      3604 8140 3604 8137 3600 8133 3593 8134
      3602 8172 3612 8170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 273DEG 15KT 3607 8162

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC