Damaging Winds in North Carolina, May 27, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms early this morning with another round
possible Monday afternoon with a cold front. Cooler and drier
conditions return Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 244 AM EDT Monday: As we await the arrival of the line of
thunderstorms coming off the Cumberland Plateau at 230 AM, some
renewed shower activity was noted over the NW Piedmont where some
residual lift was present, and over the SW upslope areas. Will
update the precip probs to account for this. Speaking of the
upstream convection, the current movement of the line would have
it reaching the NC/TN border right around 08Z. However, the line is
broken and is more parallel to the shear vector than the part of the
line in eastern KY, which suggests less of a threat for widespread
wind damage. It might actually be the rogue thunderstorms ahead
of the line in northern AL that could be more of a problem if they
get incorporated into the line and then reach southwest NC. As for
warnings, we will begin by taking our cues from the MRX office
and then go from there. Still no inkling of impending weather
watches, but that can change quickly. Available buoyancy is the
main limiting factor across the NC mountains, with maybe 1000-1500
J/kg of most-unstable CAPE and maybe 500-1000 J/kg of sfc-based
CAPE that was limited to the southern mountains. This is all to say
the trend is toward the underwhelming, but let's not let our guard
down until the line actually hits the mtns and falls apart in its
attempt to cross the divide. Precip probs were adjusted accordingly.

For today, the plan remains to gradually diminish the remnant of
the QLCS east of the mtns after daybreak, with the best thunder
chances and higher precip probs over northeast GA and the Savannah
R basin, where the deeper convection can reach without crossing the
mtns. In the wake of the QLCS remnants, expect widespread debris
cloudiness and lingering light rain. Indications are that the
precip and clouds will break up early enough in the day to allow
some air mass recovery. The RAP still shows muCAPE climbing back up
to the 2500-3000 J/kg range in the late afternoon, along with 30-35
kt of deep layer/cloud layer shear. If that is indeed the case,
then scattered thunderstorms could develop mainly east of the mtns,
and pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Coverage on
the CAMs is relatively widely scattered, but a few severe storms
will not be ruled out. Temps will top out maybe a few deg above
normal assuming the clouds break early enough in the day. The deep
convection should move off to the east by mid-evening or so.

For tonight, we should have more quiet weather. Can't rule out a few
showers in the westerly upslope areas along the TN border. Drying
aloft suggests some fog potential, also assuming some locations
get the rain late in the day. Low temps should cool off a bit,
but still above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Monday: Kicking off a quieter stretch Tuesday as the
surface cold front heads out to sea and drier air filters in behind.
The upper low continues to lift toward the NE. Meanwhile, an omega
blocking pattern emerges over the CONUS and keeps trough toward the
north of the CWA. The pressure gradient is not anticipated to be
tight, so some low-end wind gusts possible across the higher
elevations through the end of the period. Guidance from the GFS and
Euro does suggest a stray shower across the far northern NC
mountains Tuesday afternoon, but models have also been trending
drier over the past few forecast cycles. So confidence is very low.
Upper flow should start to turn more NW by Wednesday night as the
ridge axis over the central plains moves eastward. Will keep non-
zero PoPs at this point. Temps will be warmest Tuesday during the
short term and decrease closer to climo by Wednesday. Overnight
temps will also be on the decline Wednesday night as drier air
continues to move in and drop dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM Sunday: By Thursday, a semi-strong omega blocking
pattern continues over the CONUS, leaving the CWA in a weakening NW
flow regime. Thursday and Friday will remain dry as heights begin to
rise gradually as the ridge axis out west approaches the area. By
Saturday, the axis will be over the CWA and also dry. Guidance does
start to diverge on the next potential chance for showers. The Euro
develops a weak upper low and trough that approaches the area by
Sunday. However, the GFS keeps this weakened low from really forming
and prevents any rainfall from reaching the CWA through the end of
the forecast period. Either way, there's very little confidence in
this as we start to transition into a more summer like pattern. So
for now, consider the extended forecast dry and warm. Temperatures
should remain close to climo.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dealing with a few showers over the NW
Piedmont of NC, otherwise we are in the lull before the next line
of storms arrives from the west. There could be some brief fog
restrictions at any of the terminals prior to the arrival of the
line, but VFR should prevail with light/var wind. The guidance is
fairly consistent in bringing a line of strong/severe storms up to
the TN border around 09Z. Confidence is highest with KAVL thunder
probs this morning, but east of the mtns the situation is much less
certain, as a few of the CAMs show this really struggling to make it
east of the Blue Ridge. The line appears to be organized well enough
that discretion suggests keeping a TEMPO for all terminals for now,
until we are more certain that the line will actually diminish and
dissipate, which should happen in the mid/late morning at any rate
during the diurnal minimum. Wind should be SW. This afternoon is
also uncertain, but several of the CAMs still develop scattered
storms after sufficient air mass recovery happens. Will include
a PROB30 at most terminals to account for this. By nightfall,
the convection should be to the east. The passage of the front is
expected to happen in the late evening or early morning Tuesday,
bringing a shift to the NW. It remains to be seen how much fog
we get around daybreak Tuesday, but the guidance is keen on fog
development.

Outlook: Drier weather is expected by midweek with VFR conditions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
142 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-280545-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
142 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold front moves into the are overnight and brings a line of
thunderstorms before daybreak to the NC mountains. If the line can
stay together, areas east of the mountains could have damaging
winds, cloud- to- ground lightning and hail. An isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out. Another round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms is possible on Monday with a few strong to severe
storms east of the NC mountains. Main threats will be strong gusty
winds, cloud-to- ground lightning and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-280545-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
142 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold front moves into the area overnight and brings another chance
for thunderstorms before daybreak. The main threats will be damaging
winds, cloud-to-ground lightning and hail. An isolated tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. Another round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms is possible on Monday with a few strong thunderstorms
in the Western Carolina Mountains. Main threats will be strong gusty
winds, cloud- to- ground lightning and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

NCZ051-058-270830-
Graham NC-Swain NC-
401 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THROUGH
430 AM EDT...

At 401 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Gatlinburg to 16 miles
northwest of Bryson City to 17 miles northwest of Robbinsville.
Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Robbinsville, Bryson City, Town Of Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Deep
Creek, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area,
Lake Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Fontana Lake, and
Fontana Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3552 8388 3553 8382
      3556 8377 3558 8360 3556 8350 3561 8345
      3567 8334 3566 8330 3569 8326 3567 8318
      3564 8320 3563 8318 3560 8319 3557 8316
      3546 8335 3526 8401 3531 8404 3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 301DEG 37KT 3576 8341 3561 8364 3548 8404

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
432 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

NCZ051-058-059-062-270900-
Graham NC-Swain NC-Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
432 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MACON...NORTHWESTERN
JACKSON...SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 500 AM EDT...

At 432 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles east of Gatlinburg to 7 miles west of
Bryson City to 10 miles west of Robbinsville. Movement was east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sylva, Bryson City, Robbinsville, Cherokee, Dillsboro, Town Of
Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky Mountains-Fontana
Area, Lake Santeetlah, and Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8402 3550 8390 3556 8376 3556 8350
      3561 8345 3566 8330 3569 8326 3567 8319
      3557 8316 3551 8318 3543 8308 3534 8324
      3515 8373 3520 8373 3523 8369 3526 8371
      3525 8385 3522 8396 3523 8400 3531 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 289DEG 41KT 3566 8327 3547 8358 3529 8398

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MOORE