Flash Flooding and Hail in Alabama, May 27, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1218 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(rest of Tonight)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

We're are sending this out earlier than normal, given high chances
of severe weather as we go into the overnight. As of this writing,
severe storms were raging from SW Illinois, western Kentucky, and
SE Missouri. Tornado Watch #326 has recently been issued for our
Tennessee counties (Lincoln, Moore, Franklin) until 5 AM. The
latest model trends has a Quasi-Linear Convective System (squall
line) nearing far NW Alabama around midnight. Some of the models
were hinting at cellular development before the main line arrives.

In either case, all modes of severe weather (wind gusts greater
than 60 mph, hail larger than 1", tornadoes) are possible.
Discrete cells preceding the line will be be more tornado prone in
our sheared and unstable environment. The line should rapidly
move across the area in a NW-SE orientation in the overnight. New
guidance has slowed down the progress of the QLCS to the SE, now
hinting 1AM-4AM timeframe. The latter time, especially if
tornadoes occurs could become more of an issue given the very late
hour of occurrence.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Given severe weather, only minor changes made this period.
Shower and thunderstorm activity should wind down Memorial Day
Monday, as a line of convection heads further to the south and
east. A cold front should move across the area during the course
of the day from NW-SE, with shower activity winding down.

Dry and slightly cooler conditions will return Mon evening and
continue into the midweek. Highs in the mid 80s on Mon/Tue will
only rise to near 80 on Wed. Lows will range in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Dry air continues through the end of the week as upper level
ridging moves into the Tennessee Valley from the west. On Friday
evening, an upper level shortwave allows low-medium rain chances
to return to the area and continue through the weekend. During the
long term period, highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s/80s
with overnight lows in the 50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

As of TAF issuance, t-storms were forming over NW AL moving east
around 20kt. Additional development is possible early in the TAF.
A stronger line of convection extending from SW of Memphis, to
Jackson TN and Nashville heading to the ESE. This convection
should reach NW AL ~07-08Z, and NE AL 10-12Z. Storms could become
severe with damaging winds and hail, torrential rain, and a
tornado risk. Have noted variable gusty winds for the stronger
storms in the overnight. Shower activity should end from NW to SE
later today, as a cold front sweeps across the area. SW winds of
5-10kt overnight should veer to the west, then WNW by Mon evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB