Similar to the day before, strong to severe thunderstorms developed along a frontal boundary draped across the forecast area, south of Lake Ontario. Storms also developed along and east of the Lake Erie lake breeze, and then tracked east-northeast to the Northern Finger Lakes and to Oswego County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
Similar to the day before, strong to severe thunderstorms developed along a frontal boundary draped across the forecast area, south of Lake Ontario. Storms also developed along and east of the Lake Erie lake breeze, and then tracked east-northeast to the Northern Finger Lakes and to Oswego County. Areas south of the frontal boundary had plentiful surface based CAPE values of over 2,000 J/kg, allowing the storms to develop along the different boundaries.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 22, 2:50 PM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid weather will continue this weekend. An oscillating frontal boundary will support showers and thunderstorms this weekend with the risk of torrential downpours and severe weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A surface boundary was positioned just south of Lake Ontario this afternoon. North of the boundary plenty of clouds along with lingering scattered showers. South of the boundary within the warm sector, dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s with a few near 90 degree readings. SPC meso analysis showing surface based CAPES have increased to over 2000 J/KG with convection starting to fire along the Lake Erie lake breeze from northwest Pennsylvania into the western southern Tier. Lastest HRRR/HREF suggesting convection will continue to develop across the Southern Tier before growing northeast into the Finger Lakes through the rest of the afternoon. Shear profiles are less than favorable, so think this activity stays below severe limits, but will likely see tropical downpours along with some gusty winds and perhaps some small hail. Convection should die off this evening as diurnal instability wanes. The surface boundary will gradually lift north tonight as a surface low strengthens over the central Great lakes. This will place more of the region within the warm sector. Some scattered showers may continue close to the boundary over northern portions of the area. Isolated convection is possible within the warm sector. Some patchy fog may occur in areas which received rain during the day. Overnight temperatures will be muggy and generally in the lower to mid 70s, with some upper 60s across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. An active weather day is expected on Sunday, especially during the afternoon. A potent upper shortwave and associated deepening surface cyclone tracking from the central Great Lakes along the international border. A pre-frontal trough will work into the region early in the day ahead of the main of the cold front which tracks into the region late in the day. There may be two rounds of convection, first with the pre-frontal trough and then ahead of the cold front later in the afternoon. Surface instability will certainly be present with SBCAPES forecast to be near 2000 J/KG. Shear profiles become increasingly favorable with around 35 knots of flow at 850 mb and near 50 knots at 500 mb, with some turning with height allowing hodographs to lengthen with time. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for severe storms for much of the area inland from the lakes. Main threat looks to be damaging winds, with a lesser threat of large hail, but with the lengthening hodographs could see an isolated supercell. Heavy rain potential is there with high atmospheric moisture content, but the convection should be progressive making the flash flood threat more limited. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A fairly fast quasi-zonal flow will be in place for the upcoming work week, as the strong upper level ridge that brought the oppressive heat and humidity to the region this past week is suppressed over the southern half of the CONUS. Overall, there looks to be bouts of comfortable temperatures along with periods of more typical mid summer warmth ahead of a couple cold frontal passages...one mid week and the second toward next weekend. This will also translate to periods of dry time, with storm chances ramping up along and ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundaries. The details... A few strong storms (gusty winds/heavy rain) will remain possible into Sunday evening, mainly east of the Genesee Valley, as the lead shortwave and accompanying surface cold front push into eastern NY. However, a trailing shortwave will strengthen as it digs across the central Great Lakes first half of Sunday night, then crosses the lower Great Lakes later Sunday night and Monday. This will keep the threat for at least scattered showers/isolated non-severe thunderstorms in the forecast through the start of the new work week. Likelihood for showers will be greatest east of Lake Ontario closer to the better dynamics/lift and moisture associated with this feature. Some gusty NW winds will also be possible on Monday as boundary layer flow increases with the passage of the trough. There is still some good news for those looking for a break from the oppressive heat and humidity as a cooler and less humid airmass moves into the region. Lows Sunday night will drop back into the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the area. Highs Monday will range mainly from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with dew points dropping into a more comfortable range, mainly in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure is then slated to cross the area Monday night and Tuesday bringing a brief period of well deserved quiet weather. A comfortable Monday night with lows generally in the 50s, with some low 60s closer to the lakeshores. Flow will then shift back to the southwest on Tuesday as a return flow sets up on the back side of the surface high as it slides southeast of the area. This will boost high temperatures back into the low to mid 80s for the majority of the region, although humidity levels will remain tolerable. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As mentioned above, the quasi-zonal flow will continue with a similar weather pattern to the Short Term expected through this period. The details... A weak mid level ripple will move across the area Tuesday night, while a low level warm frontal segment moves northeast across the region. PWATs increase to near 1.5 inches, however lack of forcing, not expecting much more then some scattered showers/isolated rumble of thunder overnight. Next round of more significant weather looks to be centered around the Wednesday timeframe as showers and storms accompany the next cold frontal passage. Way to early to get into severe weather probs, but will need to be monitored. Timing/etc still a bit in question as well. Of more certainty is the return of mid summer warmth and humidity. Highs will be upper 70s to mid 80s, with dew points climbing into the mid and upper 60s. High pressure then looks to build in bringing another much more refreshing airmass back into western and northcentral NY for the latter part of the work week. This should result in mainly dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs low to mid 70s Thursday, then tacking on several degrees for Friday as airmass starts to modify with surface high moving east of our area. Dew points in the 50s will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June. Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances then look to return as we head toward the first half of next weekend as the next frontal system approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A frontal boundary across northern portions of the area will waver northward through tonight. While CIGS today north of the boundary (KART) will be mainly MVFR, all other terminals will be VFR south of the boundary. The main impact through this evening will be the threat for convection, particularly across the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. Low confidence in overall coverage, so left out of airfield forecasts, except for KJHW where the proximity to the Lake Erie lake breeze places a bit more confidence at that location for at least a VCTS mention. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight inland from the lakes. Patchy fog is also possible where rain occurred during the day, but low confidence where restrictions will occur. Outlook... Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes. Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions. Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Light winds and minimal wave action is expected to continue across the lower lakes through tonight. A cold front will approach the region Sunday with increasing southwest winds which will likely bring a period of small craft conditions, especially on the east end of Lake Erie. A round or two of thunderstorms Sunday will bring the potential for locally strong winds and waves. Northerly flow behind the cold front will then bring continued choppy conditions to the lakes through Monday. High pressure builds in late Monday with diminishing winds and waves for Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...EAJ/TMA MARINE...AR/EAJ/Thomas/TMA
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 526 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 NYZ012>014-019>021-085-230930- Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- 526 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday. Some of the storms could become severe with damaging winds as the main threat. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001>008-010-011-230930- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee- 526 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday. Some of the storms could become severe with damaging winds as the main threat. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-230930- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 526 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-230930- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 526 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
149 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024
NYZ019-221845-
Chautauqua NY-
149 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
THROUGH 245 PM EDT...
At 148 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waterford, or 8 miles southeast of Erie, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Westfield, Lakewood, Mayville, Findley Lake, Long Point State Park,
Chautauqua Institution, Chautauqua, Mina, French Creek, Sherman,
Panama, Bemus Point, Stedman Corners, Stow, and Ashville.
This includes Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 10.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4221 7976 4232 7954 4210 7932 4200 7974
4200 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 236DEG 23KT 4204 7997
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
TMASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
254 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024
NYZ020-221930-
Cattaraugus NY-
254 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 253 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Allegany, or 7 miles east of Salamanca, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Olean, Allegany, Weston Mills, St. Bonaventure, Hinsdale, Great
Valley, Carrollton, Ischua, Humphrey, Vandalia, and Haskell Flats.
This includes Interstate 86 between exits 23 and 27.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4209 7866 4222 7869 4229 7831 4204 7831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 272DEG 15KT 4213 7859
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
PPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
457 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024
NYZ020-222130-
Cattaraugus NY-
457 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...
At 457 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Franklinville, or 19 miles northeast of Salamanca, moving east at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Farmersville Station and Lime Lake-Machias.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4235 7859 4244 7860 4251 7831 4235 7831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 261DEG 17KT 4240 7850
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
PPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
520 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024
NYZ012-020-021-222145-
Cattaraugus NY-Allegany NY-Wyoming NY-
520 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...
NORTHEASTERN CATTARAUGUS AND NORTHWESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES THROUGH
545 PM EDT...
At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rushford, or 23 miles north of Olean, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Arcade, Belfast, Rushford, Houghton, Caneadea, Eagle, Pike,
Farmersville Station, Hardy Corners, Fillmore, Bliss, and Sandusky.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4235 7842 4255 7846 4262 7814 4234 7800
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 262DEG 13KT 4242 7837
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
PPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
529 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024
NYZ012-013-222200-
Livingston NY-Wyoming NY-
529 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...
At 528 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Portageville, or 9 miles southwest of Letchworth State Park, moving
east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Letchworth State Park, Portageville, Nunda, Pike, Castile, Hunt, and
Dalton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4252 7803 4253 7816 4260 7819 4270 7795
4252 7785
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 261DEG 16KT 4257 7812
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
PPThe Binghamton radar (KBGM), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:10 UTC.
17 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple reports of wires downed on Jay Street in Geneva, including a tree that fell onto wires.
Tree downed, partially blocking White Springs Road in Geneva.
Tree downed completely blocking the intersection at Saint Clair Street and South Main Street.
Two trees downed, completely blocking Toll Road between Griffith Road and Case Road.
Tree downed, blocking the road on Thompson Station Road.
Tree downed in the southbound lane on State Route 14 at Gifford Road.
Tree down blocking the road near the intersection of Outlet Road and Curran Road.
Numerous trees and powerlines downed in the Town of Clyde.
Two trees downed in the Town of Newark.
Trees downed in the Town of Savannah.
Trees downed in the Town of Lyons.
Multiple trees downed in the town of Conquest.
Multiple trees and wires downed in the town of Victory.
Multiple trees and wires downed in the Town of Cato.
Multiple trees and wires downed in Granby.
Multiple trees and wires downed in Fulton.
Picture of ping pong ball sized hail in Fulton sent via social media.
Half dollar size hail reported in Fulton.
Trees and wires downed in the City of Oswego.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1192971, 1192972, 1192974, 1192981, 1192983, 1192984, 1192987, 1192991, 1192993, 1192994, 1192996, 1192988, 1192989, 1192990, 1192976, 1192977, 1192999, 1193001, 1192978.