Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in Arizona, June 22, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
138 PM MST Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Ample moisture will bring daily chances for thunderstorms to the
area through next week. Some thunderstorms will generate strong
outflow winds with locally heavy rain possible. This will also
knock several degrees off of the heat. Temperatures may climb up a
bit middle of next week as high pressure builds overhead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Anomalously moist precipitable water values (for this time of
year) were observed over southeastern Arizona on this morning's
upper air observation. While morning cloud cover prevented
developing instability in western Pima and much of Graham and
Greenlee Counties, adequate insolation over eastern Pima, Santa
Cruz, and Cochise Counties has allowed for convective development
this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly weak with the
near tropical atmospheric column, which should hamper today's
severe convection potential as thunderstorm updrafts should
struggle to push through the mid-levels. That said, with
precipitable water clearing 1.5 inches periods of heavy rainfall
rates are likely under any thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, and weak mean winds may lead to an isolated flooding
potential as storms will be slow to move.

Tomorrow, a bit of drying may lower convective chances in eastern
Cochise and Graham counties as the moisture axis nudges west.
Steeper mid-level lapse rates should intersect with the moisture
axis from the Santa Cruz area through central to eastern Pima
counties tomorrow afternoon, which may be the window for a few
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. 12Z HREF updraft
helicity and max wind speed probabilities highlight this area as
well. Uncertainty remain at this point however with questions
about how models handle how current convection's impact on the
atmosphere for tomorrow.

Looking at next week, atmospheric moisture should generally remain
in place as the upper high nudges slightly westward over our area
during the early portion of next week. Warmer mid-level
temperatures associated with this high may tamper the thunderstorm
severity threat at times, however ample moisture and surface
heating should allow for chances each day.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered TSRA with BKN ceilings around 6k feet KOLS-KTUS through
23/03Z. Possibly very isolated TSRA elsewhere this afternoon.
Briefly heavy rainfalls may significantly reduce visibilities at
times. East to southeast winds 10-15 kts. Stronger and erratic
outflows possible with any thunderstorms. Activity diminishes
after 23/03Z with just isolated
-SHRA possible overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong increase in moisture will bring better
relative humidity values along with a chance of thunderstorms
into next week. Some storms will generate strong and erratic
outflow winds. Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some
storms to generate locally heavy rain.

Temperatures may heat back up by mid week as high pressure builds
nearly overhead, however we should keep some storm chances around.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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