The dryline pushed to the Rio Grande Valley at the same time an upper trough was moving into the Great Basin. Ample instability and shear allowed for severe thunderstorms to develop across northern Dona Ana county.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
The dryline pushed to the Rio Grande Valley at the same time an upper trough was moving into the Great Basin. Ample instability and shear allowed for severe thunderstorms to develop across northern Dona Ana county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 19, 10:44 AM MST, 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1144 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024
An east push of moisture will bring storm chances to eastern
portions of the CWA this afternoon. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds and hail will be possible with storms. This strong east push
will also bring windy conditions to locations along the
International Border late tonight and into the early morning hours
tomorrow. Breezy winds will be seen again Thursday and Friday with
continued rain chances areawide. Lower chances for thunderstorms
exist over the weekend and early next week with gradual warming of
temperatures. El Paso could see triple digits again as early as
Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024
An east push of moisture will continue to press westward
throughout the day today allowing for chances of thunderstorms
where very gusty and erratic outflow winds and hail are possible.
Best chances for thunderstorms will be in Otero and Hudspeth
counties. In addition, this push of moisture will bring windy
conditions to locations along the Intl Border and especially for
west facing slopes. Thus issued a wind advisory for El Paso
county, southern Dona Ana, and portions of Hudspeth county.
Uncertainty remains for western locations bordering AZ. Wind
speeds may reach to just under the 35MPH sustained wind speed
threshold but uncertain at this time if these locations warrant a
wind advisory at this time. A flood watch has been issued for the
Sacramento Mtns today as this is a very sensitive area due to
wildfires. Any good rain producing thunderstorms that falls over
the burn scar area could bring debris flows and flash flooding.
As an inverted trough pushes closer to the area this will allow
areawide rain chances to persist through Friday before rain shuts
off east to west late Friday. Very little instability expected
Thursday and into Friday which may mean more clouds with light
showery activity for the most part. However, bulk shear values of
around 30-40kts looks to be present west of the RGV on Thursday
allowing the potential for some stronger storms if they can get
going. Otherwise, we can expect a mostly cloudy day on Thursday
which will help alleviate the Borderland from the hot temperatures
we've been seeing. The NBM went with a value of 87F for the El
Paso airport on Thursday. The 25th percentile would be a value of
around 77F and the 75th percentile is around 83F. Clouds and
possible rain/thunderstorms expected but it does seem like the
25th percentile would be too low of a high temperature on
Thursday. Little confidence in high temperatures right now, so
just stayed with 87F. Either way, we can expect cooler
temperatures than what we'll see today.
Lingering rain chances possible over the weekend and through early
next week as an upper high pressure parks itself over the
Borderland. This also means a gradual warm up Thursday and onward.
We may see our next triple digit day in El Paso on Sunday where
triple digits will continue through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW050-OVC250. Currently the winds are light;
however, they will become breezy to low end windy 15 to 25 kts
with gust up to 35 kts and generally out from the southeast after
19Z across all of the terminals. There will be a brief decrease
in the winds 5 to 10 kts while out from the southeast between 07
and 13Z. There will be a few TS far east of terminals later this
afternoon and this evening that will not affect operations. There
will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024
Elevated fire conditions expected this afternoon for the Rio
Grande Valley and westward. Min RH values in this location will
be 10-13% and higher RH values will be seen to the east (20-35%).
An east push of moisture will continue to press westward today and
will bring breezy to windy conditions for locations along the
International Border early this evening lasting through Thursday
morning. However this should alleviate some fire concerns the
winds will be coupled with increasing moisture. Thunderstorms
possible this afternoon generally for the Rio Grande Valley and
eastward. Thunderstorms will be capable of very gusty and erratic
outflow winds and hail. This will make it quite dangerous near the
fire line of ongoing wildfires if thunderstorms pops in the
vicinity. Low chances of thunderstorms popping west of the Rio
Grande but if storms do form, storms will be capable of dry
lightning and gusty outflow winds.
A shift in the weather is expected Thursday as we can expect
mostly cloudy skies, cooler temperatures, and areawide rain
chances Thursday and Friday. Breezy southeast winds expected Thu
and Friday but min RH values stay out of critical thresholds
Thursday through Sunday lowering fire concerns. However, fire
concerns return as early as Monday as very warm temperatures and
mostly dry weather will be seen early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 105 76 87 75 / 40 40 50 60
Sierra Blanca 95 66 76 66 / 40 40 70 50
Las Cruces 103 72 88 69 / 20 20 40 60
Alamogordo 100 65 87 67 / 30 40 50 60
Cloudcroft 77 50 61 51 / 40 50 70 70
Truth or Consequences 99 71 87 68 / 0 30 30 60
Silver City 92 65 82 64 / 0 20 30 50
Deming 101 70 89 68 / 0 20 30 60
Lordsburg 99 70 90 68 / 0 20 20 40
West El Paso Metro 101 73 85 72 / 30 40 40 60
Dell City 98 67 79 66 / 30 40 60 50
Fort Hancock 103 68 84 68 / 40 50 60 50
Loma Linda 95 65 76 65 / 40 40 60 60
Fabens 103 72 86 71 / 40 40 50 50
Santa Teresa 100 70 85 69 / 30 30 40 60
White Sands HQ 100 74 83 74 / 30 40 50 60
Jornada Range 100 66 85 66 / 20 30 40 60
Hatch 103 68 88 67 / 10 30 40 60
Columbus 100 72 88 70 / 0 20 30 60
Orogrande 100 70 82 69 / 30 40 50 50
Mayhill 85 54 66 54 / 50 50 80 60
Mescalero 87 54 72 54 / 40 40 70 70
Timberon 85 51 67 51 / 40 50 70 60
Winston 90 56 79 56 / 0 30 40 60
Hillsboro 96 65 83 64 / 0 30 40 60
Spaceport 99 65 86 63 / 10 20 40 60
Lake Roberts 92 60 83 60 / 10 20 30 60
Hurley 95 64 85 62 / 0 20 30 50
Cliff 100 63 93 64 / 0 10 20 40
Mule Creek 93 66 89 67 / 0 10 10 30
Faywood 95 65 82 64 / 0 20 30 60
Animas 99 69 91 68 / 0 10 20 30
Hachita 99 68 89 66 / 0 20 20 50
Antelope Wells 98 68 90 67 / 0 20 20 40
Cloverdale 93 68 87 67 / 0 10 10 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
TXZ418>420.
Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.
NM...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
NMZ411.
Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight
for NMZ415-416.
&&
FORECASTER...36-TexeiraThe Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:01 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Mesonet station at Jornada USDA Headquarters reported a peak gust of 62 mph.
The Condron Field Mesonet station on the White Sands Missile Range reported a peak gust of 58 mph.
The San Augustin Pass Mesonet station reported a peak gust of 94 mph at 515PM MST with gusts ranging from 64-94 mph between 5-530PM MST.
The Dripping Springs RAWS recorded a peak gust of 61 mph.
The Delta Clipper Mesonet station on the White Sands Missile Range recorded a peak gust of 72 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1193338, 1193339, 1193340, 1193341, 1193342.