Flash Flooding and Damaging Wind in New Mexico, August 8 to 9, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1133 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

A moist front is currently backing into New Mexico from the
northeast, and this will produce much more shower and thunderstorm
activity today, especially in northern areas of the state where
some strong storms and heavy rain will be possible. East central
to southeastern areas of New Mexico will remain drier with fewer
storms and hotter temperatures today. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast again Friday, mainly over northern and
portions of western New Mexico. Less rain is forecast this
weekend, but scattered storms will still develop each day with a
focus over the northern and western mountains. More moisture will
then enter western New Mexico from the south by early next week
with storms increasing again and spreading into northern areas.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above average with eastern
plains areas reaching the upper 90’s and 100’s for much of the
first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

A complex weather pattern underway the next couple of days with a
high pressure system coincident with a wedge of fairly deep dry air
over southeast NM, a moist backdoor front pushing southwestward
through the forecast area, and disturbances embedded in the
periphery of the ridge crossing northern NM. Over northern and
western areas today PWATs are forecast to climb around 1-1.2", or
about 100-150% of normal (except 175% of normal on Raton pass),
and these areas run the risk of locally heavy rainfall. The QPF
forecast for this afternoon and evening shows a maximum near 2"
along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and across
the northeast highlands. Will expand the ongoing Flood Watch for
the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon Scar northeastward to Raton Pass
this afternoon and evening. Although we can't rule out rainfall
heavy enough to cause problems on the Sacramento Mountains burn
scars today, the dry air over southeast areas will probably limit
storm coverage to widely scattered in that area and result in
lighter rainfall if any develops. Also, the high pressure system
east of the scars should steer storms toward the northwest off
the high terrain, and away from the scars.

The backdoor front will push into the central valley with east
canyon wind gusts around 30-45 mph late this afternoon and
evening. This front will continue to serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development over western areas this evening and into
the late night hours, while disturbances passing eastward over
northern NM keep storms going near the CO border as well.

PWATs are forecast to remain around 100-150% of normal areawide on
Friday with the highest values along our borders with CO and AZ. As
a result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to favor northern and western areas on Friday, with
scattered to isolated activity elsewhere. There will be an ongoing
threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding along and just
east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Friday afternoon and evening.
In addition, thunderstorm chances and rainfall intensity are likely
to increase Friday over the burn scars of the Sacramento Mountains
due to increased low level moisture advection that finally works its
way over southern areas from the northeast tonight.

It will be hot again today over southern areas, where high
temperatures will again climb up to 10 degrees above 1991-2020
averages. However, northern areas will cool near to around 7
degrees below the averages today. High temperatures on Friday are
forecast to fall a few to around 10 degrees below 30-year averages
across northern and central areas, and within a few degrees of
the averages across the majority of the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Storms are modeled to carry on throughout the overnight hours
Friday night, concentrating mostly over northern zones, and some
convection could linger into the post-dawn hours Saturday. Debris
clouds could even linger into Saturday afternoon and may stunt
the next round of convection as the high begins to consolidate
more over NM and TX. Surface winds would be veering and gaining a
southerly to even a westerly (over western zones) component,
reducing the upslope potential of previous days. Blended guidance
still paints likely POPs over northern zones, but this could be
overdone if the boundary layer doesn’t destabilize as quickly as
modeled. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered POPs are expected with
temperatures starting to warm up more, particularly in the eastern
plains.

Into Sunday, the upper high will not alter or move much with
light southerly or westerly winds prevailing at the surface.
There is higher confidence in more widespread instability on
Sunday, and this should yield scattered storms over the
northwestern half of the CWA with more numerous cells over the
western and northern high terrain. Temperatures should keep
warming in the eastern plains with many locales reaching the upper
90’s to 100’s.

It still appears that the monsoon high will nudge a bit farther
east into Monday and Tuesday, setting up a southerly tap of
subtropical moisture. This fetch should largely be drawn up over
eastern AZ and western NM before curving into northern zones,
featuring higher PWATs of 0.8 to 1.0 inch on Monday and perhaps
increasing further into Tuesday. These western (and to some extent
the northern) NM zones will therefore see an increase in POPs
each day while scarce storms and hot temperatures persist in the
east central to southeastern zones.

Into Wednesday the moisture plume could possibly get spread
eastward if stronger southwesterly flow aloft works into the
inter-mountain west as the GFS (and to a lesser extent the GEFS)
indicates. The ECMWF is not as enthused. For now, a near
persistence forecast will carry over from Tuesday into Wednesday
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Scattered showers and storms from 18Z through 21Z will become more
numerous late in the afternoon, particularly north of I-40. A
backdoor front currently located along a line extending from
roughly KLVS to KCVN will continue surging south and westward this
afternoon, aided by convective outflows. The front will surge
through the gaps of the central mountain chain around 00Z this
evening, creating strong gap winds that will impact KABQ, KSAF,
and KAEG. Wind gusts will likely reach their peak at KABQ between
03Z and 08Z, but may persist through sunrise Friday.

Satellite imagery shows that low clouds associated with a
backdoor front have stalled out in the northeast corner of the
state. These MVFR/IFR cigs will remain there before eventually
surging south and westward after sunset. At least MVFR cigs are
expected at KLVS, KRTN, and KTCC and may progress as far west as
the east slopes of the central mountain chain. IFR to LIFR
conditions are possible early tomorrow morning in the northeast
highlands and northeast plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7
days. There will be an uptick in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms areawide today and Friday, as a backdoor front
replenishes low level moisture. As high pressure aloft tries to
recenter over TX Saturday, a ridge axis is projected to extend
westward across NM with a downtick in thunderstorm coverage and
warming temperatures after cooling today and Friday. The upper
high is projected to remain east or southeast of NM next week,
while an active storm track over the Pacific Northwest draws a
more traditional plume of monsoon moisture north and northeastward
across NM with increased thunderstorm coverage and a greater risk
of locally heavy rainfall across much of the forecast area daily
starting Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  66  87  65 /  30  50  60  50
Dulce...........................  91  51  81  54 /  70  70  90  70
Cuba............................  86  57  82  57 /  80  70  70  60
Gallup..........................  89  57  86  57 /  70  60  60  40
El Morro........................  84  57  81  55 /  80  60  70  50
Grants..........................  88  61  86  60 /  80  70  70  50
Quemado.........................  87  57  84  56 /  70  40  70  40
Magdalena.......................  89  60  86  64 /  40  40  40  20
Datil...........................  85  56  83  55 /  50  40  50  30
Reserve.........................  91  56  88  56 /  70  50  50  30
Glenwood........................  94  65  94  65 /  70  40  50  30
Chama...........................  82  49  73  51 /  80  60 100  70
Los Alamos......................  83  60  80  61 /  90  70  80  60
Pecos...........................  82  57  79  55 /  80  70  70  50
Cerro/Questa....................  81  51  76  53 /  90  80  90  70
Red River.......................  69  46  67  46 /  90  80  90  70
Angel Fire......................  72  43  70  48 /  90  70  80  60
Taos............................  84  54  80  54 /  80  70  70  60
Mora............................  77  51  76  52 /  90  70  80  60
Espanola........................  91  60  88  62 /  80  70  60  50
Santa Fe........................  85  60  82  63 /  80  70  70  60
Santa Fe Airport................  89  60  86  61 /  70  60  50  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  65  90  67 /  50  50  50  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  66  92  68 /  40  50  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  66  94  62 /  40  50  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  66  92  67 /  50  50  20  50
Belen...........................  97  64  94  66 /  30  40  20  30
Bernalillo......................  96  66  94  65 /  50  50  30  50
Bosque Farms....................  96  64  94  62 /  30  50  20  30
Corrales........................  96  66  94  63 /  50  50  30  50
Los Lunas.......................  96  64  94  62 /  30  40  20  30
Placitas........................  91  63  89  65 /  50  50  40  50
Rio Rancho......................  94  66  92  66 /  50  50  30  50
Socorro.........................  99  66  96  68 /  20  40  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  57  83  61 /  70  50  50  40
Tijeras.........................  88  60  86  63 /  60  50  50  40
Edgewood........................  89  56  85  61 /  60  40  40  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  55  86  56 /  60  40  40  30
Clines Corners..................  84  54  81  56 /  60  40  40  40
Mountainair.....................  89  56  86  60 /  40  40  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  89  57  86  59 /  40  40  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  94  64  90  64 /  30  20  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  86  56  81  56 /  30  20  50  20
Capulin.........................  76  54  73  53 /  80  80  70  70
Raton...........................  82  55  77  55 /  80  80  70  60
Springer........................  84  57  79  57 /  80  70  60  60
Las Vegas.......................  81  54  78  54 /  80  60  70  50
Clayton.........................  81  59  78  60 /  50  60  40  60
Roy.............................  84  58  78  59 /  70  70  40  60
Conchas.........................  93  63  86  64 /  30  50  20  50
Santa Rosa......................  91  61  83  63 /  30  40  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  92  61  86  63 /  20  40  20  40
Clovis..........................  99  65  91  66 /  20  20  20  40
Portales........................ 101  66  91  65 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  99  64  91  66 /  20  30  20  30
Roswell......................... 104  72  97  72 /   5  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  97  63  91  65 /   5  10  20  20
Elk.............................  94  58  89  60 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ214-215-227>229.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16