Abundant monsoonal moisture continued to be pulled northward into New Mexico on August 28th and 29th. This resulted in showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall developing over the recent burn scars by Ruidoso.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Abundant monsoonal moisture continued to be pulled northward into New Mexico on August 28th and 29th. This resulted in showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall developing over the recent burn scars by Ruidoso. The first round on August 28th resulted in flash flooding within the Cherokee Mobile Home Park down from the Salt burn scar, and within and near the South Fork burn scar. The second round on August 29th resulted in flash flooding from the South Fork and McBride burn scars. Thunderstorms producing heavy rain resulting in flash flooding also impacted parts of Portales, NM on August 29th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 28, 10:54 AM MST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1154 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Another active Monsoon day is forecast, with scattered to numerous showers and storms across central and western NM. Some storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and result in flash flooding on and near area burn scars. Drier air will overtake western and portions of central NM Thursday, leading to a downtick in thunderstorm coverage. A backdoor front will move through early Friday and replenish moisture, leading to an uptick in thunderstorm coverage by late day with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Chances for storms will persist through the weekend, but trend down some by Sunday. Temperatures will trend down and be below normal most areas by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 A broad upper level low pressure system tracking slowly eastward across the northern Rockies and a high pressure system over the southeast US will continue to draw rich monsoon moisture northward over the forecast area today and tonight. Satellite imagery early this morning depicts a disturbance in the monsoon flow over the southwest mountains inching northeastward toward Albuquerque and Santa Fe. Models are in good agreement on the disturbance passing northeastward over the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas this afternoon and evening, then slowly eastward across northeast NM on Thursday. As a result, scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening, except for dry weather on the far eastern plains until this evening when isolated showers and storms are forecast there. In the wake of the disturbance on Thursday, drier air is forecast to move into the forecast area from the northwest with dry weather forecast from the Albuquerque area northeastward to Farmington and Gallup. Elsewhere, scattered-to- numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday. PWATs generally around 1.0-1.2" in most places today should enable some storms to produce locally heavy rainfall with a risk of flash flooding mainly below recent burn scars, urban areas, areas with steep terrain, and other locations where the ground is already saturated from recent heavy rainfall. PWATs will trend downward as the drier air moves into central and northwest areas on Thursday, but remain in the 1.0-1.2" range along and east of the central mountain chain where the risk of locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will persist. With this forecast package we will issue a Flood Watch for flash flooding below the recent burn scars of the Jemez, Sangre de Cristo, and Sacramento Mountains from late this morning until mid evening. The rich moisture, precipitation, and cloud cover will hold high temperatures near to as much as 12 degrees below 1991-2020 averages this afternoon, except up to 4 degrees above the averages along the eastern border. As the drier air moves in on Thursday, high temperatures should climb within 3 degrees either side of 30-year averages areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Weak northwesterlies will continue to steer drier air into western and central NM Thursday night as an upper high builds up over the Great Basin. Convection will persist into the evening hours along/east of the central mountain chain before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. A backdoor front will slide southwest across the area Friday and replenish moisture west to the Continental Divide, setting the stage for a more active day relative to Thursday. A gusty east canyon/gap wind into the RGV is forecast Friday, but will likely remain well below advisory threshold. The potential for locally heavy rainfall and burn scar flooding will be back on the uptrend Friday afternoon/evening. The upper high is forecast to shift east to over CO this weekend, with deep easterly flow developing over NM. Above normal PWATs will reside across southern NM this weekend, but relative cooler temperatures may limit instability and rainfall amounts. Some drying of the atmosphere is forecast across northern NM where PWATs will fall to near/below normal, which will limit coverage of convection. The heavy rainfall signal for the weekend that was in the model data a few days ago is no longer there, so lower forecast confidence on any significant impacts over the weekend. Temperatures will continue to trend down most areas over the weekend and generally be below normal, with highs in the 70s and 80s. The upper high over CO is forecast to weaken somewhat early next week and shift east slightly, potentially allowing moisture to creep north into our area and resulting in an uptick in thunderstorm coverage. However, disagreement among the 00z medium range model solutions with the handling of the upper high beyond the weekend is resulting in lower forecast confidence at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 A complex weather scenario is at hand today with rich moisture over the area and several mesoscale convective vortices drifting toward the north from southern NM. A remnant area of rain from overnight near Socorro is still drifting northwest toward Grants. This cluster may develop into a larger cluster of storms across northwest NM later today between Cuba, Gallup, and Farmington. The areas with clearing skies late this morning will be favored for more vigorous storm development thru 2pm. Direct hits will be capable low MVFR vsbys in heavy rainfall. Gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes are also expected. Storms may then develop into a larger area of rain this evening as one of the more organized convective vortices moves slowly northeast thru central NM. This may lead to several hours of low VFR rain with embedded TSRA between roughly 6pm and midnight. SHRA may linger until sunrise Thursday within central NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days. Rich monsoon moisture will remain in place with Scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms favoring central and western areas today, then mainly southern and eastern areas on Thursday. Thursday night and Friday a moist backdoor front will push through eastern then central areas invigorating thunderstorm activity areawide, except locally near the Four Corners. Models depict a mid-level high pressure system building over UT and CO Friday through the weekend, then migrating over the fire weather forecast area early in the coming work week; although, there are still significant model differences on what will happen early next week. As a result, thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity should trend downward over the weekend, except over the southern fringe of the fire weather forecast area where an easterly wave passing over southern NM should produce the best storm coverage. After mostly below normal temperatures for the remainder of this week, readings should trend upward early next week, especially if the high pressure system does move overhead. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 86 60 88 57 / 5 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 80 49 84 43 / 20 20 20 5 Cuba............................ 77 54 83 51 / 50 40 20 5 Gallup.......................... 79 52 85 47 / 50 20 10 0 El Morro........................ 73 52 80 50 / 70 40 30 5 Grants.......................... 76 52 85 51 / 60 40 20 5 Quemado......................... 72 52 81 53 / 70 40 40 10 Magdalena....................... 73 56 81 58 / 70 50 30 10 Datil........................... 70 51 79 51 / 70 40 50 5 Reserve......................... 75 52 86 48 / 70 30 40 10 Glenwood........................ 79 60 90 62 / 70 30 40 5 Chama........................... 73 48 76 44 / 30 30 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 75 57 80 55 / 50 50 50 10 Pecos........................... 75 54 79 54 / 60 60 70 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 74 51 76 40 / 40 30 50 20 Red River....................... 66 47 66 42 / 40 30 60 20 Angel Fire...................... 71 43 70 34 / 50 40 60 20 Taos............................ 78 51 80 46 / 40 40 50 10 Mora............................ 74 51 75 47 / 60 50 70 20 Espanola........................ 83 59 88 53 / 50 50 40 10 Santa Fe........................ 77 56 81 56 / 50 60 50 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 80 57 84 54 / 50 60 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 62 86 61 / 60 70 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 82 61 88 61 / 60 60 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 83 61 90 59 / 60 60 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 62 89 61 / 60 60 20 10 Belen........................... 83 60 90 58 / 60 60 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 84 61 90 59 / 50 60 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 83 59 90 56 / 60 60 20 10 Corrales........................ 83 62 90 60 / 60 60 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 82 60 90 58 / 60 60 20 10 Placitas........................ 80 59 86 58 / 60 60 30 20 Rio Rancho...................... 83 62 89 61 / 50 60 20 10 Socorro......................... 82 62 91 61 / 60 50 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 75 54 81 54 / 60 70 40 20 Tijeras......................... 78 56 84 57 / 60 70 30 20 Edgewood........................ 77 54 83 51 / 60 70 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 51 84 48 / 60 60 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 75 52 78 51 / 60 50 50 30 Mountainair..................... 75 54 82 53 / 60 50 40 20 Gran Quivira.................... 76 54 81 53 / 60 50 50 20 Carrizozo....................... 79 60 83 59 / 60 50 50 30 Ruidoso......................... 71 55 75 53 / 70 40 60 30 Capulin......................... 79 55 79 51 / 20 30 60 30 Raton........................... 83 55 83 52 / 20 30 50 20 Springer........................ 84 56 83 53 / 30 40 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 77 53 80 50 / 50 50 60 20 Clayton......................... 86 63 86 59 / 5 20 50 50 Roy............................. 82 59 82 56 / 20 30 60 40 Conchas......................... 89 64 90 60 / 20 30 50 50 Santa Rosa...................... 86 62 86 58 / 20 30 50 50 Tucumcari....................... 90 64 89 59 / 5 20 40 70 Clovis.......................... 90 65 90 64 / 5 20 60 70 Portales........................ 91 65 91 63 / 5 20 60 70 Fort Sumner..................... 90 65 90 62 / 10 20 40 60 Roswell......................... 92 70 93 68 / 10 20 40 40 Picacho......................... 82 62 84 59 / 50 30 60 30 Elk............................. 79 58 82 55 / 50 30 70 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ211-214-215-226- 229. && SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...42
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:16 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Locally heavy rainfall on the Salt burn scar resulted in flash flooding on secondary roads off U.S. Highway 70 and within the Cherokee Mobile Home Park. There were no reports of injuries, casualties or damage.
Brief heavy rainfall of 0.20 over the South Fork burn scar resulted in flash flooding and road closures over portions of Brady Canyon Road from South Oak Drive to Mechem Drive.
A fast moving storm developed over the South Fork burn scar, quickly moving east and producing 0.84 of rainfall over the McBride burn scar. Flash flooding was reported over roadways at University Dr. and Mechem Dr., Gavilan Canyon Rd. at several locations from Eagle Creek to east of Warrior Dr., and on Paradise Road. Debris was reported over the road at Prospect Rd. and Gavilan Canyon Road. While road closures were reported there were no reports of damage, injuries or casualties.
Intersection flooded and closed at East 3rd Street and Kilgore Avenue.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1199155, 1199156, 1199163, 1199166.