A strong upper level high pressure system that was over New Mexico the prior days moved east over Texas and Oklahoma on August 22nd. This allowed more monsoon moisture to enter New Mexico leading to the development of showers and storms across parts of the state.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A strong upper level high pressure system that was over New Mexico the prior days moved east over Texas and Oklahoma on August 22nd. This allowed more monsoon moisture to enter New Mexico leading to the development of showers and storms across parts of the state. One thunderstorm brought severe downburst winds to the Roswell Air Center briefly cooling temperatures in town before heating back up to around 100 degrees later in the afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 22, 10:46 AM MST, 3 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1146 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 254 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Record and near record warmth will continue over eastern areas through Saturday. Meanwhile, a stream of monsoon moisture will cross with a risk of locally heavy rainfall each day for the next seven days. Today and Friday the greatest coverage of thunderstorms will be over western areas, but the focus for storms with locally heavy rainfall will spread to include central areas as well Saturday through Sunday, then eastern areas as well early next week. There will be in increased risk of burn scar flash flooding starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 254 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 A pattern change commences today with the changes most noticeable across western and central NM. The abnormally strong upper high that has been over and baking most of New Mexico the last few days moves east over West Texas and the Texas Rolling Plains in response to an unseasonably deep upper low moving east into the Pacific NW. This will shift the monsoon plume of moisture that has largely been over Arizona and Utah more into western and parts of central NM. PWATS across western and central NM increase from 0.5 to 0.75 inches yesterday to 1 to 1.25 inches as a result. This added moisture along with a shortwave rotating north from northern Mexico and southeast Arizona will result in a greater coverage of showers and storms and cooler temperatures by around 6 to 10 degrees across western NM. Storms will fire up over the western high terrain midday moving northeast into surrounding lower elevations come the mid to late afternoon and evening hours. A storm motion of 10 to 20 mph will help to limit the flash flood threat for locations across northwest and west central NM. However, one exception will be for locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain from thunderstorms. For that reason, a slight risk for excessive rainfall is depicted by WPC across northwest and west central NM. QPF amounts generally range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches across this area, but as always, locally higher amounts will be likely. Outflow from the storm activity across western NM will reach the RGV come the late afternoon and early evening hours cooling afternoon high temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s and resulting in gusty and erratic wind gusts in ABQ, Santa Fe, Socorro, and Taos. These outflow boundaries could also result in additional storm development during the evening hours, but the bigger threat will be the strong erratic wind gusts. The monsoon plume will be oriented in such a way where some showers and storms could be possible across the HPCC burn scar, but the downsloping southwest winds and quicker storm motion to the northeast across the burn scar will help limit rainfall amounts. The Ruidoso burn scars will be southeast of the higher moisture from the monsoon plume. A stray afternoon and evening shower and storm can't be ruled out, but conditions down there are expected to remain fairly dry. Storms this evening and tonight will linger longest across northwest NM due to the aforementioned shortwave overhead. Meanwhile, it will be another very dry and very hot day across eastern NM. Even though upper level heights will be slightly lower compared to yesterday, upper level southwest flow between the Texas upper high and Pacific NW upper low will induce the development of a weak surface lee trough across this part of the state. Downsloping and drying southwest winds will help boost temperatures a degree to two compared to yesterday across the eastern plains and caprock with widespread low to mid 100s expected. Records are expected to be smashed at several locations across the eastern plains by as much as 4 to 6 degrees in some cases (Portales forecast high: 104; daily record: 101 and Roswell forecast high: 107; daily record: 102). The Chaves County Plains are the only zone expected to meet the Heat Advisory temperature criteria of 105 with locations in Quay, Curry, Roosevelt, and DeBaca County very close to the temperature criteria. However, with daily records expected to be smashed, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average for late August, and the experimental HeatRisk depicting a large area of major heat risk with some isolated patched of extreme heat risk (accounting for several days in a row of extreme heat this week), have opted to include these group of counties in southeast NM along with the Chaves County Plains to the Heat Advisory for this afternoon. More of the same is expected for the forecast area of Friday as the overall synoptic setup remains the same. Showers and storms favoring western NM, with storm outflow moving into the RGV come the late afternoon and early evening. Shower and storm chances tick up a little across the central mountain chain, but once again faster storm motion to the northeast along with higher moisture remaining west will limit rainfall amounts across the HPCC and Ruidoso burn scars. Still very hot across eastern NM due to the downsloping and drying southwest winds, but about 1 to 3 degrees cooler than Thursday. Roswell, Clovis and Portales are expected to break records by around 1 to 3 degrees still (Roswell forecast high: 105; daily record 104 Portales forecast high: 102; daily record: 100). With this and another day of major to locally extreme heat risk, one more round of Heat Advisories might be needed for the southeast plains Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 254 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 There is fairly strong model agreement on the stream of monsoon moisture spreading from western areas to include central areas Saturday and especially Sunday as an upper level low pressure system tracks eastward over the western US. PWATS around 1" Saturday and around 1-1.25" Sunday will enable some thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rainfall both days (especially Sunday). Storms should move northeastward around 15-30 mph Saturday, and around 15-25 mph Sunday, so training will play an important role in the development of flash flooding with two notable exceptions: (1) Locations with high antecedent moisture may flood even without training cells; (2) Recent burn scars may flood without training cells due to their sensitivity to a single heavy burst of rainfall. There is also a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over the northwest third of the forecast area on Saturday due to bulk shear (0-6 KM) around 25-40 KT, CAPE locally up to around 1800 J/KG, and steep lapse rates. Meanwhile, areas from the Caprock to around Roswell will continue to have record and near record high temperatures on Saturday afternoon. On Saturday, Roswell should tie fourth place record for consecutive days >= 100 F (13) with June 7-19, 2011. They are only forecast to reach 99 F for a high on Sunday in Roswell. Model differences decrease forecast confidence some for the first half of the coming work week, but the potential exists for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The operational run of the GFS is shallower and more progressive with the weather system crossing the northern Rockies than the operational runs of the both the ECMWF and Canadian Models. This will make a difference in how quickly and how much dry air filters into NM from the northwest, as well as how much progress a moist backdoor front makes it into the state Sunday night and Monday. The potential exists for fairly widespread coverage of heavy rainfall Monday through Tuesday due to a combination of factors including the moist backdoor front, the lingering stream of monsoon moisture spanning from the southwest to northeast corners of the forecast area, and increasing southeasterly return flow ahead of a warm core low heading up the TX/Mexico border from the Gulf of Mexico. The storm track in the westerlies should also shift northward some early in the coming week making storm motion more slow and erratic over the forecast area. At the very least it looks like there will be a high risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Overall, VFR should prevail over the next 24 hours. Forecast challenge remains timing of thunderstorms and associated gusty outflow winds at the terminals. Mainly retained timing of previous TAF set. One adjustment was to push timing of thunderstorm initiation an hour or two later for KFMN and KGUP. Confidence has also increased, per recent HRRR runs and HREF guidance, of outflow winds reaching KABQ/KAEG and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms, so TEMPO groups were introduced there. A few weak showers may develop on the eastern plains until a surface trough moves through this afternoon, but with very hot temperatures and dry low levels, unlikely to see wetting rain with these at KROW/KTCC. Density altitude concerns continue at those terminals as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days. Chances for wetting storms will increase across western and central NM beginning today through next week as a typical monsoon flow enters this part of the state. Eastern NM remains dry and very hot for the rest of the week due to being closer to the upper high over the Great Plains, but cooler and wetter weather looks to move in early next week ahead of a easterly wave over the Texas Big Bend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 85 62 86 61 / 40 60 40 60 Dulce........................... 85 52 83 49 / 50 70 60 60 Cuba............................ 85 56 84 55 / 60 60 60 50 Gallup.......................... 83 54 84 55 / 60 50 50 30 El Morro........................ 79 54 82 54 / 80 60 80 50 Grants.......................... 83 56 85 55 / 80 50 70 40 Quemado......................... 81 55 84 55 / 80 50 70 40 Magdalena....................... 86 61 85 60 / 50 30 70 30 Datil........................... 82 55 82 55 / 70 30 80 30 Reserve......................... 87 55 88 54 / 60 40 70 40 Glenwood........................ 91 64 92 64 / 50 20 60 40 Chama........................... 79 49 76 47 / 50 60 60 50 Los Alamos...................... 86 60 84 60 / 30 30 60 30 Pecos........................... 86 58 84 58 / 30 20 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 53 81 52 / 30 40 40 20 Red River....................... 75 48 71 48 / 30 30 40 10 Angel Fire...................... 78 45 76 45 / 30 30 40 10 Taos............................ 88 54 84 53 / 30 30 30 20 Mora............................ 84 54 82 53 / 20 10 50 10 Espanola........................ 94 61 91 59 / 30 30 40 30 Santa Fe........................ 87 61 85 60 / 30 20 40 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 61 89 59 / 20 20 40 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 93 66 92 66 / 30 30 40 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 65 93 65 / 30 40 40 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 65 95 64 / 30 40 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 66 94 65 / 30 40 40 40 Belen........................... 96 63 95 62 / 30 30 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 97 64 95 64 / 30 40 40 30 Bosque Farms.................... 97 62 94 61 / 30 30 30 30 Corrales........................ 97 65 95 65 / 30 30 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 97 63 95 63 / 30 30 30 30 Placitas........................ 93 64 92 63 / 20 30 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 95 65 94 65 / 30 30 40 40 Socorro......................... 98 66 97 65 / 30 20 40 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 58 85 58 / 20 30 50 30 Tijeras......................... 89 61 88 60 / 30 30 50 30 Edgewood........................ 90 57 89 55 / 20 30 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 55 90 53 / 20 20 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 87 57 84 55 / 5 10 30 20 Mountainair..................... 89 58 88 57 / 20 10 40 20 Gran Quivira.................... 88 59 89 58 / 10 10 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 93 66 92 65 / 10 10 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 85 60 85 60 / 10 5 30 20 Capulin......................... 89 57 86 58 / 10 10 10 0 Raton........................... 92 56 89 55 / 10 10 10 0 Springer........................ 94 58 92 56 / 10 5 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 88 57 86 56 / 10 10 30 10 Clayton......................... 99 64 96 68 / 0 10 0 0 Roy............................. 93 61 90 61 / 5 10 5 5 Conchas......................... 101 67 98 65 / 5 10 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 96 65 93 63 / 5 10 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 104 67 100 67 / 0 5 0 5 Clovis.......................... 104 71 102 70 / 0 5 0 0 Portales........................ 104 71 102 71 / 0 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 103 68 100 67 / 0 10 0 10 Roswell......................... 107 73 105 73 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 97 65 96 64 / 10 5 10 5 Elk............................. 95 63 95 62 / 10 5 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234>238. && SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...53
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
136 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024
NMZ215-228-222000-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
136 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY
THROUGH 200 PM MDT...
At 136 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cimarron, or 19 miles northwest of Springer, moving northeast at 10
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cimarron and Philmont Scout Ranch.
This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 303 and 317.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.
&&
LAT...LON 3638 10490 3647 10505 3665 10493 3652 10472
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 222DEG 7KT 3653 10489
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
GuyerSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
229 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024
NMZ205-222100-
West Central Plateau-
229 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CIBOLA AND
NORTHWESTERN CATRON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM MDT...
At 229 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Salt Lake, or 35 miles south of Zuni Pueblo,
moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Salt Lake and Fence Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 10904 3472 10863 3471 10863 3463 10865
3435 10880 3436 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 193DEG 17KT 3455 10885
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
GuyerThe Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 153 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:28 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust of 69 mph from a thunderstorm downburst was observed at the Roswell Air Center.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1195477.