Damaging Winds and High Wind in Nevada, September 15 to 16, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
344 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Active period of weather thru at least mid week as
back to back dynamic weather systems move into Nevada, the first
today and the second on Wednesday. Accumulating rainfall and
strong winds are expected. Cool temperatures are also expected
with dry conditions by the weekend.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night

Long wave trof positioned along the coast this morning will
progress inland while concurrently deepening into a cutoff low.
Attendant cold front will move into Nevada from the northwest this
afternoon with showers and isolated thunderstorms present this
afternoon. Thunderstorms bring the usual hazards of erratic and
gusty outflow winds with the potential to gust 45+ mph, cloud to
ground lightning, and small hail. South-southwesterly prefrontal
winds gust 25 to 35 mph this afternoon with the strongest gusts
located across central Nevada. Rainfall totals thru tonight will
be modest, with around 0.10" or less expected for the valleys.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

By Monday morning, the upper trof and cutoff low will be
positioned over California, situated directly over Nevada in the
afternoon. Rain and isolated thunderstorms increase in coverage with
the majority of rainfall occurring Monday and Monday night.
Additional totals will be around an inch or more for portions of
northern Elko and Humboldt Counties, trending to around 0.10" or
less for the southern half of White Pine County and northeast Nye
County as the front stalls Monday night on a line from northeast
Elko County to northwest Nye County. Winds will again be breezy,
and given the position of the front, paired with jet energy thru
the base of the trof, strong southerly winds will be present in
and near White Pine and northeast Nye Counties with gusts 40 to 50
mph expected. Subsequently necessitating a wind advisory for
Monday afternoon. Winds ease Monday night but remain breezy.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the 60s with overnight lows
in the low 30s to low 40s.

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.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

A strong area of low pressure centered over northern CA will move
through the western U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Breezy conditions
are forecast for parts of northern and central NV from Monday
morning until Tuesday morning. Higher wind speeds are expected for
the southern part of the state starting Monday afternoon and
continuing through Tuesday morning due to a jet streak developing
on the southern edge of the low pressure system. Widespread
showers are forecast for the entire CWA for both days. Wind speeds
will decrease over NV on Tuesday morning as the low transitions
further west.

Breezy conditions will return for much of our CWA on Tuesday
afternoon as the low moves away from the region, and a low chance
of isolated showers will remain for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Afterwards, another trough will move through northern CA on
Wednesday and into our CWA on Thursday, resulting in widespread
rain showers and thunderstorms, as well as windy conditions, for
both days. Winds will die down over northern and central NV on
Thursday, while windy conditions will remain in the southern area
of the state through Friday. Calm and dry conditions forecast for
the weekend.

A deep trough of low pressure centered over northern CA will move
into the western U.S. Monday. A tightening surface pressure
gradient ahead the trough will bring breezy to windy conditions
across portions of central and north- central Nevada. South to
southwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-40
mph. Widespread showers and thunderstorms (15-25% chance) will
develop over the entire CWA. Most of the rainfall is expected
across central and north- central Nevada, with storm total amounts
through Tuesday afternoon ranging from half of an inch to an inch
of rain.

After a brief break in drier weather Tuesday, another trough of
low pressure will bring another round of widespread showers and
thunderstorms along with gusty winds Wednesday through Thursday.
Storm total amounts will range from 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain in
central NV. By early to mid next week, highs will cool into upper
50s to lower 60s with lows in the mid 30s. As the trough exits the
region, a zonal flow pattern and dry weather returns Friday
through the weekend.

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.AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight
conditions through Sunday. Stout winds will develop ahead of a
upper level trough that will be approaching Nevada Sunday
afternoon. For central Nevada, south to southwest winds of 15KT to
25K with gusts up to 40KT will be possible Sunday through Sunday
evening for KTPH and KELY. Northern Nevada terminals will see more
SW to W winds of 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT will be
possible. These winds could generate isolated areas of blowing
dust but probabilities of dust remain below 20%. Isolated showers
and thundershowers will be possible, after mid day mainly for
KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO. Probabilities start at 10% rising to 30% by
Sunday evening. Central Nevada including terminals KTPH and KELY
may see a low 15% chance at VCTS Sunday evening as well. Shower
and storm chances will increase to 50% to 80% Sunday night into
Monday, for all terminals as the upper trough moves in central
Nevada.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Period of active weather begins this afternoon as
a dynamic cold front moves in from the northwest. Rain along with
embedded isolated thunderstorms are expected thru Tuesday as the
system progresses east. Brief lull in activity Tuesday night as
the next weather producer moves in Wednesday. Wetting rains are
expected with most of the rain falling Monday and Monday night.
Greatest totals will be across northern Nevada zones with an inch
or more forecast for portions of zone 437, and the northern halves
of zones 438 and 469. Breezes and gusty winds produce elevated
fire weather concerns this afternoon with gusts 25 to 35 mph,
though minimum afternoon RH values reside near or above the
critical threshold of 15% as moisture moves in as noted. Winds
will be breezy and strong Monday, particularly in and near zones
426 and 425, where gusts 40 to 50 mph will be present. Though
minimum afternoon RH values again reside above critical
thresholds.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday Northeastern Nye
County...White Pine County.

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92/96/98/92