Heavy Snow in Nevada, March 30, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
220 AM PDT Sat Mar 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow will overspread the region from west
to east today, with areas of gusty south to southwest winds
occurring ahead of the rain band. Showers and a few thunderstorms
are expected Sunday, with chances ending from west to east Sunday
night and Monday. Dry weather and a warming trend are expected
Tuesday and Wednesday before the next storm system begins to affect
the region with increasing winds Thursday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Early morning loop of satellite
and area radars showed the main precipitation band located from Los
Angeles to Mammoth and moving east. As has been advertised, this
band will sweep across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin
today, bringing widespread rain and mountain snow, with gusty south
to southwest winds ahead of it. As far as precipitation goes, rain
amounts in the deserts should primarily be half an inch or less,
with amounts up to an inch in higher terrain areas below the snow
level, which should be 5500 to 6500 feet as the band passes through
before falling several hundred feet after its passage. These amounts
should be primarily beneficial, although localized issues in poorly
drained areas cannot be ruled out. The snow is more complex, as
forecast amounts keep creeping up with each passing day. The Winter
Storm Warning for the Spring Mountains still looks good. Less
confident in the Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern Sierra,
where sites such as Aspendell will be close to, or perhaps a little
over, warning criteria. The Advisory for the White Mountains of Inyo
County looks better thanks to some shadowing from the Sierra.
Elsewhere, amounts on Lida Summit in Esmeralda County and on higher
elevations of the Nevada National Security Site in Nye County have
increased from previous runs, and reasonable worst-case scenarios
(90th percentile) now show these spots hitting warning criteria.
Factors working against this include relatively warm air (and thus
ground temperatures) ahead of the snow band, which will also be
occurring in an area of warm advection, as well as relatively short
duration of the snow as the band moves east. On the flip side,
temperatures and snow levels will drop after the warm conveyor belt
passes, and snow showers, locally heavy, look like a decent bet
Sunday under the cold trough axis. Went for the middle ground and
hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for these areas valid from early
this morning through Sunday afternoon, matching WFO LKN's start and
end times for their Advisory covering Tonopah. Farther east, Lincoln
County poses a similar dilemma, and chose to hoist an Advisory there
as well, valid from this afternoon through Sunday evening. Lincoln
County should see a better chance of heavy snow showers and possibly
thundersnow on Sunday than Esmeralda and Nye counties, as lifted
indices fall to near zero. Sunday night, as the trough axis inches
slowly east and heights begin to creep upward, precipitation chances
should decrease from northwest to southeast. Now, to talk about the
wind. Lake Wind Advisory for the Colorado River Valley and Wind
Advisory for the rest of Mohave County look good. These areas are
mostly clear to partly cloudy on early morning satellite, and
haven't cooled off much overnight as steady breezes have held
temperatures up, so strong late March sun will quickly couple the
boundary layer to the free air above, allowing stronger winds aloft
to mix down to the surface. The winds should settle down as the rain
band moves in due to both precipitation drag and stabilization of
the boundary layer.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

The trough responsible for this weekend's dreary weather and colder
than normal temperatures will continue to move through the region on
Monday. As this trough moves through the area on Monday, there is a
25% to 50% chance for isolated showers south and east of Interstate
15. By Tuesday the trough will have cleared out of the area and an
upper-level ridge will have begun pushing into the Southwestern US.
This ridge will give us a brief reprieve from cool and wet weather.
Temperatures will warm to near normal values on Tuesday, with above
normal temperatures expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Our brief
reprieve won't last long as we will see gusty southwesterly winds
return to the region on Thursday as another system approaches the
region. We will see temperatures drop 10 to 15 degrees from Thursday
into Friday as the system moves into the area. In addition to cooler
temperatures, gusty southwesterly winds will linger across the
Mojave Desert on Friday. Outside of strong winds and cooler
temperatures, we will also see increased precipitation chances
accompany this trough. However, current guidance suggests that
precipitable water will only peak between 100% to 125% of normal
with this system which is less than the 150% to 200% of normal we
are expecting with this Easter Weekend system.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy south winds expected continue
throughout the day. Some indications of a SE component between 12z-
18z, but should be solidly S-SW by the afternoon when gusts of 15-25
knots kick in. Probably more impactful will be the low clouds and
precipitation that move in after daybreak. High (60-80%) likelihood
of CIGs less than 6kft from 16z - 05z, with a 30-40% chance of CIGs
below 3kft during this time. Precipitation chances exceed 40% from
17z - 04z. Expect several hours of persistent, light rain with
periods of moderate rain rates possible. Should see a fairly quick
improvement in sky conditions once precipitation exits the valley,
with CIGs rising to 8+ kft or scattering out between 04z-07z. Light
south or variable winds overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South winds persist at most of the area TAF sites
today, strongest in the Colorado River Valley where gusts of 25-35
knots are expected. Elsewhere, gusts of 15-25 knots are forecast.
The bigger story today will be a band of light-to-moderate
precipitation and low clouds moving across the area. Worst
conditions expected at KBIH, where there's a 70% chance of MVFR and
a 35% chance of IFR conditions this morning. Between 15z-18z,
precipitation and low clouds are expected to spread east to KDAG and
the Las Vegas Valley sites, not reaching KEED and KIFP until the
afternoon hours. Outside of KBIH, probabilities of MVFR and IFR
conditions are roughly 30-50% and 10-20%, respectively. Sky
conditions should improve fairly quickly in the late afternoon and
evening as the band pushes east. Light winds overnight.
&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature within 5 degrees of the daily record low max (the
coolest high temperature recorded on the date).

The table below shows the daily record low maximum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 5 degrees of the forecast).

Note: The temperature at Las Vegas was above 57 degrees at midnight
standard time (1 AM PDT), so today's record cannot be broken or tied.

LOW MAX         SAT, MAR 30    SUN, MAR 31
                Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas        57(2023)*      48(1948)
Bishop           44(1977)       48(1999)
Needles          61(1938)       61(1949)
Barstow-Daggett  60(2023)*      58(1967)*
Kingman          48(1975)       55(1967)*
Desert Rock      53(2023)*      55(1999)*
Death Valley     67(1998)*      68(1949)*
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Stessman
CLIMATE...Varian
AVIATION...Woods

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