Blizzard and Hail in Nebraska, March 24 to 26, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1111 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and freezing rain (and a few rumbles of thunder)
  continue to slide across the area this morning. Areas near and
  north of Highway 92 could see slick roads this morning.

- Strong south/southeasterly winds are expected today,
  especially across portions of Kansas. Gusts of 40-50 MPH are
  likely in these areas.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
  evening, the main risk area southwest of a line from Cambridge
  to Beloit, and the main timeframe for severe is 4pm to
  midnight.

- Rain gradually changes to snow (possibly a brief wintry mix)
  late tonight into Monday.

- Strong northwest winds (gusts to 50 MPH) overspread the area
  through Monday. Blizzard conditions are expected for some
  locations through Monday night.

- Snow ends by Tuesday morning. After a cold day on Tuesday,
  temperatures trend warmer through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Currently, our first round of rain showers is moving across the
forecast area. Temperatures north of I-80 are near to below
freezing, but upstream we've seen temperatures increase by a few
degrees as precipitation moves in. That said, near term models
still favor freezing rain occurring near and north of Highway
92. Most (if not all) of the rain will move out by 7am, and any
ice should melt off by mid morning. If this plays out as
expected, the advisory will probably be cancelled early.

Most of the area will see a "lull" in precipitation this
morning into the early afternoon, but focus will then shift to
the potential for severe storms this afternoon. Moisture will
continue to surge northward ahead of a deepening surface low
over eastern CO, eventually resulting MLCAPE values in excess of
1000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon in southwest portions of the
area. This will be coupled with deep-layer shear on the order
of 20-40kts. These parameters are not super impressive, but
strong lift should help overcome some of these deficiencies. The
primary threats will be hail and isolated damaging wind. An
isolated/brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out
(especially with low LCLs), but the better potential for this
appears to be to our south with a better overlap of CAPE/shear.

Storm intensity should trend downward by late evening, but then
we will start seeing precipitation change from rain to snow as
colder air pushes in from the northwest. This will occur as
northwest winds continue to increase, with gusts of 45 to 55
MPH. Through Monday morning, the heaviest snow is favored to
occur along our northwestern periphery, with a pretty sharp
cutoff on the east side. Therefore, only a few counties (Valley,
Sherman, Dawson, Gosper) were put in the Blizzard Warning.

There is fairly high confidence that strong winds continue
overspread the entire area through Monday, but there is much
less certainty on the coverage and intensity of snowfall during
the day on Monday. Therefore, a Winter Storm Watch was
maintained/expanded in these areas. After the primary surface
low weakens, many models show another low deepening, potentially
producing another band of snow across. If this does occur,
blizzard conditions would be possible over a larger portion of
the area.

Precipitation winds down late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Subzero wind chills appear likely for much of Nebraska
to start the day on Tuesday. Some blowing snow could still
persist through midday Tuesday, but winds will gradually subside
through the afternoon.

Beyond Tuesday, things are looking much quieter (at least for a
while). The NBM has us dry from Tuesday through Saturday, with
temperatures returning to the 60s by Thursday. There are hints
at a system for the end of March, but confidence in any details
is extremely low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Models try to raise ceilings this afternoon to a MVFR ceiling.
Decided to raise to BKN010 this afternoon into the evening.
I don't have the highest of confidence this will happen, but
models have kept the trend so I kept it in. Expect showers into
the overnight hours. Early tomorrow morning I tried to time a
2-3hr window of potential freezing precipitation before it
changes over to -SN tomorrow morning. The winds will pickup
overnight and debating about upping the gusts a little more at
the end of the TAF period. Depending on how much snow we get
BLSN and DRSN could be an issue Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
     for NEZ040-047-061-062-073>075-082>084.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     NEZ039-046-060-072.
KS...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
     for KSZ005.

&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
247 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
252000-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
247 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Southerly wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are possible this afternoon
and evening, mainly southeast of a line from Phillipsburg to Red
Cloud to Geneva.

Chances for thunderstorms will increase late this afternoon and
evening, and a few of these storms could become severe, mainly
between 4pm and midnight. Threats include hail to the size of half
dollars and wind gusts up to 60 MPH. The highest risk is
across north central Kansas, but there is some chance for severe
storms to reach as far north as the Interstate 80 corridor.

After midnight, rain will start to change to snow from northwest
to southeast. Before the switchover to snow, a period freezing
rain will be possible, with a light glaze to around a tenth of an
inch of ice accumulation possible by daybreak west of Highway
281. In addition, northwest wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are also
possible by early Monday morning, mainly in areas northwest of a
line from Beaver City to Greeley, Nebraska, where a blizzard
warning goes into effect at 1 AM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Rain will continue to transition to snow from west to east across
the local area Monday morning, with a period of freezing rain
possible before a complete transition over to snow. This could
result in an additional light glaze to up to one tenth of an inch
of ice accumulation Monday morning, mainly for areas along and
west of a line from Osborne, Kansas to Fullerton, Nebraska. In
addition, strong northwest winds will spread across the area
Monday into Monday night, with wind gusts of 45 to 55 MPH
possible. This would result in in poor visibility and hazardous
travel in any bands of heavier snow that develop. As a result, a
winter weather advisory as well as a blizzard warning have been
issued for parts of the local area. Please see the latest winter
weather statements for additional information.

Finally, wind chill values will fall below zero across much of
Nebraska Tuesday morning with readings as low as 10 degrees below
zero possible in spots primarily north of Interstate 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail or damaging winds that
occur today, along with any wintry precipitation tonight through
Monday.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi