A very strong jet stream produced a mountain wave that descended to the surface which resulted in locally very high wind gusts at the Livingston Airport and nearby areas.
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The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
A very strong jet stream produced a mountain wave that descended to the surface which resulted in locally very high wind gusts at the Livingston Airport and nearby areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 2:23 AM MST, 4 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
223 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday Night...
Satellite imagery shows a trof over the high plains and a ridge
over the west coast placing our region under NW flow. A strong
pressure gradient has developed across our western foothills
thanks to lee side pressure falls. Winds were gusting well into
the 50's (mph) at Livingston and Nye during the early morning
hours. Visibility has dropped below two miles at times in blowing
snow near Livingston.
Heights will increase today as we transition to anticyclonic flow.
Aside from some light orographic snow over the Beartooth-
Absarokas, we should be mostly dry through the short term forecast
period. Temps should warm up with the ensuing downslope flow. Most
areas are expected to warm back into the 40s, but those locations
that received heavier snow in the foothills may struggle and only
see 30s today. Temps by Thursday should reach upper 40s to near
60 in a strongly mixed environment.
Main forecast remains the strong wind along the foothills and
potential for blowing/drifting snow where we have seen very recent
powdery accumulation. There are a few inches of fresh snow on the
ground from Livingston to Big Timber, Columbus, Red Lodge and
Billings. Pressure gradients and vertical profiles remain
conducive to high winds in our gap areas through the day. We will
certainly see gusts over 50 mph at Livingston/Nye and Big Timber
at times...and confidence is high we will see gusts over 60 mph at
times as well for Livingston and Nye today into tonight (75%
probability). We expect areas of blowing/drifting snow to impact
portions of I-90 from Livingston to Big Timber, and also to a
somewhat lesser extent US-191 from Big Timber north to Harlowton.
Our Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow remains in effect
until noon today. Other locations may see more localized blowing
snow, such as US-212 from Roberts to Laurel and the unsheltered
areas near Absarokee and Columbus, as well as Fort Smith.
The blowing snow threat will diminish as temps push into the 30s
late this morning. At that time, we will transition to simple
wind highlights in our foothills as strong cross winds will
continue at and near the gap locations through Thursday night.
As a matter of fact, we could see another high wind episode for
our foothills and mountains Thursday/Thursday night as mid level
winds back to the southwest and the nose of a 110 kt upper jet
pushes into SW MT and our mountains in a favorable orientation for
producing mountain waves. Progs suggest 700mb winds may reach 60
to near 70 kts around mountain top level. Our gap locations will
see gusts 60-70 mph Thursday night (95% probability for
Livingston/Nye over 60 mph), with 45-60 mph from Big Timber to
Harlowton possible (75% and 45% respectively to see over 50 mph).
Needless to say recreational activities in the foothills and
mountains may become very difficult to impossible Thursday.
A cold front will slide down the front range into our region
Friday morning bringing the wind threat to an end. (Please see
long term discussion below). BT
Friday through Wednesday...
A weak cold front passage Friday morning will end the strong wind
threat along the foothills and bring precipitation chances back
to the region. At this time, the best chances remain over the
mountains and foothills (60-90% chance), with chances decreasing
to the east (55% at Billings and 20% at Miles City). While this is
occuring, a trough will move into the Pacific Northwest. This
trough will slide through our region in some fashion Saturday into
Sunday, allowing precipitation chances to remain elevated through
the weekend (40 to 90% chance, highest over the mountains). How
this trough evolves through the region remains uncertain, but
ensembles are starting to come into more agreement on the trough
staying north through our area and developing into a low
downstream. Where the low develops is uncertain, but will have a
big impact on where we see precipitation. The GFS ensemble is
developing a low closer to our east, putting better precipitation
and breezy winds into our east Saturday evening into Sunday. The
ECMWF ensemble is keeping the trough open longer, and putting less
precipitation over the east. The latest ECMWF trended a bit
towards the GFS ensemble though, with the GFS ensemble staying
consistent. With this, the coldest air looks to come on Sunday
when precipitation type is expected to be snow. Before Sunday, a
rain/snow mix is expected (Friday into Saturday), with all snow
still in the mountains. The higher hills would see more snow, with
lower elevations and river valleys seeing more rain.
By Monday, the trough looks to move east with a brief period of
ridging moving into the area. Cluster analysis suggest another
trough moving into the west coast Tuesday, keeping temperatures
moderated through mid next week.
Temperatures Friday and Saturday look to be in the 40s to low 50s
behind Friday's front, with upper 20s to lower 30s Sunday. Monday
will likely see gradual warming back into the 30s to low 40s.
Tuesday and Wednesday look to have temperatures near normal in the
low to mid 40s. Arends
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwest winds will increase along the western foothills early
this morning, especially at KLVM where wind gusts are expected to
reach 50 knots. These strong winds will continue through the day
today. With these winds, the potential for visibility reductions
with blowing and drifting snow will increase from KLVM to K6S0.
The potential will decrease by midday with warming temperatures.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the region. Arends
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 033/056 033/046 030/047 021/031 017/041 022/045
0/Q 00/N 16/O 45/O 75/S 32/S 11/B
LVM 044 033/052 033/042 027/043 017/032 016/036 020/040
0/Q 00/N 68/S 57/S 65/S 21/B 11/B
HDN 045 028/059 030/048 028/050 018/032 013/041 019/047
0/U 00/B 04/O 44/O 75/S 32/S 11/B
MLS 044 025/057 031/046 029/045 017/025 009/029 015/040
0/U 00/U 01/B 22/O 54/S 21/B 11/B
4BQ 046 025/060 035/052 030/054 020/033 013/037 019/046
0/U 00/U 01/B 22/O 44/S 32/S 11/B
BHK 041 025/058 030/048 025/045 018/029 007/028 012/039
0/U 00/U 00/B 32/O 44/S 22/S 11/B
SHR 041 023/057 031/050 026/051 018/032 012/038 016/045
0/U 00/U 03/R 54/O 65/S 42/S 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until noon MST today FOR
ZONES 65-66-141.
WY...None.
&&
weather.gov/billingsPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
513 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1212 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 17 NE Wilsall 46.16N 110.38W
02/28/2024 M54.00 MPH Park MT Mesonet
0138 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 ENE Livingston 45.70N 110.45W
02/28/2024 M69.00 MPH Park MT ASOS
0218 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 17 S Fort Smith 45.07N 107.89W
02/28/2024 M54.00 MPH Big Horn MT Mesonet
&&
LAPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
623 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0547 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 ENE Livingston 45.70N 110.45W
02/28/2024 M74.00 MPH Park MT ASOS
&&
LAThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds gusted anywhere from 77 to 92 mph at the Livingston Airport and nearby areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1158086.