A strong jet stream over the area, combined with tight surface pressure gradients, resulted in high wind gusts over the mountains and foothills, as well as some adjacent areas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
A strong jet stream over the area, combined with tight surface pressure gradients, resulted in high wind gusts over the mountains and foothills, as well as some adjacent areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 24, 2:40 AM MST, 5 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
240 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday Morning...
The main concern in the short term is the potential for very
strong winds across our western foothills and mountains. In
addition, warm and windy conditions will produce elevated grass
fire conditions, so people are urged to use caution today,
especially in the east where local humidity will be seasonally
low (25-30%) during the afternoon.
At this time, satellite imagery shows a W/NW flow over our region
with a weak short wave tracking southeastward through central MT.
Not much moisture is associated with this weak wave, but we may
see an isolated sprinkle or flurry early this morning, but
probably just some virga.
Main weather feature overnight was a tightening pressure gradient
across our foothills. The orientation turned to primarily favor
the gap locations of Livingston/Nye where gusts as high as 65 mph
have occurred overnight. Winds have also been elevated at Big
Timber (pk gust 46 mph) and somewhat at Harlowton (pk gust 35
mph). Models have overdone the nocturnal wind at Big
Timber/Harlowton, but underestimated Livingston as usual due to
lack of resolution in the vertical profiles and the terrain gap
features. We expect winds to increase at Big Timber and Harlowton
this morning due to mixing and steep lapse rates. Gusts to 60 mph
have around a 60% chance of occurring. Model trends all suggest
winds may back off at most foothill locations late today into the
early evening. We suspect winds will take off again after dark at
Livingston/Nye with a mountain-top level inversion set to develop
again.
Also for tonight, another weak short wave will track over
northeast Montana and may produce scattered rain/snow showers over
our eastern zones (20-30% PoP). We do not expect this to produce
much if any impacts.
For Sunday...Models bring in strong 700mb winds Sunday afternoon
(55-65 kts) and soundings indicate that strong mixing/steep lapse
rates kick in during the afternoon and remain overnight into early
Monday. Gusts 60-70 mph are still anticipated, and we may see a
few peak gusts exceed 70 mph (40% chance). Sunday night into
Monday model progs suggest wind in the higher mountains above Red
Lodge could reach 65+ kts (75 mph). This would make recreation
activities next to impossible in the high country.
Mountain Wave Threat?...Along with the potential for 65 kt winds
above 6500 ft and flow perpendicular to the mountain ranges, some
model soundings also indicate a critical layer (strong layer of
wind with weaker winds above and below). This all suggest a
mountain wave threat (damaging winds powerful enough to knock down
large trees) for the mountain/foothill locations including Red
Lodge. This could happen anytime Sunday night into Monday morning,
but cross sections from the HRRR suggest the most likely time
would be right before the cold front sweeps through, so Monday
morning. Keep in mind, mountain waves are very difficult to
forecast and a true well formed mountain wave does not happen
often, but the pattern for this event needs to be closely
monitored.
For now...we have not changed any wind highlights. A high wind
warning is in place from Big Timber to Harlowton through 5 pm. The
wind advisory remains for the Livingston to Nye corridor through
5 pm Monday. A high wind watch remains in effect for the
Absaroka/Beartooths and western foothills to Wheatland County
through noon Monday. BT
Monday Afternoon through Saturday...
Key Messages: The strong winds along the western foothills will
end Monday. A cold front will bring colder temperatures and
precipitation to the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The
Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes could be impacted.
Monday is the start of a pattern change as a strong cold front
drops through the region. This front will bring colder
temperatures, precipitation, and breezy conditions, while ending
the strongest winds along the western foothills. The exact timing
of the front is still uncertain, but the general timing looks to
be Monday afternoon into the evening. As far as temperatures go,
daytime temperatures will still be warm on Monday with highs in
the upper 40s to lower 60s. Once the front moves through,
temperatures will quickly drop below freezing across the area.
With this, precipitation is likely across the area (55-95%,
highest over the mountains and foothills). With warmer
temperatures ahead of the front, the precipitation over the lower
elevations will likely start out as rain or a rain/snow mix.
However, with temperatures rapidly cooling, rain looks to
quickly transition over to all snow as the heavier precipitation
moves in. As far as snow amounts go, uncertainty still remains.
However, the best accumulation chances continue to remain along
the foothills and mountains during this time as northeasterly
upslope flow moves in behind the front (see specific percentages
in the table below this discussion). The main impact with the
precipitation will be wet surfaces freezing and creating icy
surfaces on roads and sidewalks, and then these icy surfaces
becoming snow covered. These hazardous conditions could be in
place by the Monday evening commute, and will likely linger
through the Tuesday morning commute as well. Start planning ahead
if you need to travel during these times. Aside from this, breezy
30 to 45 mph northerly winds will accompany the front over the
lower elevations. This may help to reduce visibilities at times
with falling snow being blown around.
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday night will be in the single
digits and teens across the region, with daytime highs in the
teens to 20s Tuesday. This cold will not last long, as a warming
trend returns Wednesday. By late next week into the weekend,
another pattern change to cooler and wetter is possible, but a lot
of uncertainty remains at this time.
Probabilities of snow exceeding XX" of Snow Late Monday - Tuesday Morning
| 2" | 4"
-----------------------------
Billings | 60% | 30%
Livingston | 75% | 10%
Red Lodge | >95% | 90%
Sheridan | 85% | 70%
Miles City | 10% | 0%
Arends
&&
.AVIATION...
Strong winds will continue across the western foothills today and
tonight with peak gusts around 50 kts at KLVM, K6S0, and K3HT.
Across the rest of the area, winds have decreased early this
morning but will increase again late this afternoon with 25 to 35
kt gusts common. These winds will decrease again tonight outside
of the foothills. Outside of wind, partial mountain obscurations
in the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains will clear early this morning.
Isolated to scattered rain/snow may develop around KMLS and KBHK
this evening as well, creating localized MVFR conditions.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Arends
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057 038/060 041/058 010/025 013/045 031/055 035/055
1/N 10/N 08/R 83/S 11/B 11/B 23/O
LVM 050 039/053 041/048 010/026 017/042 030/050 035/049
0/N 11/N 19/O 73/S 12/S 12/R 45/O
HDN 057 034/061 038/059 007/025 009/047 026/058 030/058
1/N 20/B 08/R 83/S 11/B 11/B 12/R
MLS 052 033/056 038/052 005/018 009/042 026/055 030/054
1/N 30/B 05/R 51/E 01/B 10/B 11/B
4BQ 055 034/059 039/061 007/021 008/045 024/058 031/059
0/N 20/E 03/R 83/S 00/B 00/U 11/B
BHK 050 029/052 034/053 001/016 003/040 023/054 028/056
0/N 31/B 02/R 61/Q 00/B 00/U 11/B
SHR 055 030/059 036/058 005/021 004/043 021/054 028/056
0/U 10/B 05/R 96/S 10/B 10/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR
ZONES 63-141-172-228.
High Wind Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning FOR ZONES 63-67-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory in effect until 5 PM MST Monday FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...None.
&&
weather.gov/billingsPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
605 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0212 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 17 NE Wilsall 46.16N 110.38W
02/24/2024 M53.00 MPH Park MT Mesonet
0335 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SSW Big Timber 45.81N 109.98W
02/24/2024 M54.00 MPH Sweet Grass MT ASOS
0445 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 8 WSW Molt 45.82N 109.09W
02/24/2024 M54.00 MPH Stillwater MT Mesonet
0531 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 ENE Livingston 45.70N 110.45W
02/24/2024 M70.00 MPH Park MT ASOS
&&
LAThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds gusted 60+ mph across the area.
Winds gusted 69 to 77 mph across the area.
Winds gusted to 60 mph across the area.
Winds gusted from 60 to 66 mph across the area.
Winds gusted anywhere from 60 to 82 mph across the Red Lodge area.
Winds gusted 66 to 70 mph.
Winds gusted to 60 mph across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1158077, 1158081, 1158080, 1158084, 1158083, 1158082, 1158078, 1158079.