Montana, 2024High Wind in Montana, December 2, 2024
December 2, 2024 · NWS TFX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones
Although upper level ridging was building in from the west across the Northern Rockies, a strong pressure gradient and a ridgetop inversion supportive of mountain wave activity resulted in strong winds and gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Although upper level ridging was building in from the west across the Northern Rockies, a strong pressure gradient and a ridgetop inversion supportive of mountain wave activity resulted in strong winds and gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 2, 6:19 PM MST, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- High winds along the Rocky Mountain Front through late Tuesday morning, with the strongest period of winds from this evening through the mid-morning hours on Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures will occur for most locations through Saturday, with the exception of locations northeast of a Cut Bank, to Great Falls, to Lewistown line where temperatures will fluctuate between below normal to near normal from Tuesday through Thursday.
- Dry conditions expected through the middle of the work week.
- Potential exists for a more widespread wind event from Friday night through Saturday night.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 2, 6:19 PM MST, 1 hour 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
619 PM MST Mon Dec 2 2024
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High winds along the Rocky Mountain Front through late Tuesday
morning, with the strongest period of winds from this evening
through the mid-morning hours on Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures will occur for most locations through
Saturday, with the exception of locations northeast of a Cut
Bank, to Great Falls, to Lewistown line where temperatures will
fluctuate between below normal to near normal from Tuesday
through Thursday.
- Dry conditions expected through the middle of the work week.
- Potential exists for a more widespread wind event from Friday
night through Saturday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 150 PM MST Mon Dec 2 2024/
- Meteorological Overview:
H500 ridge axis over the western seaboard will gradually shift
eastward and towards the Northern Rockies through the middle to
end of the work week; however, as the ridge shifts eastward it
will see decreasing heights as a series of shortwaves crest the
ridge axis and dive southeast over the Northern Rockies and High
Plains. The first of these series of shortwaves will move over
North Central Montana tonight through Tuesday night, with the
main impacts being increasing southwest to west surface winds,
especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. The second shortwave
will then begin to approach the Northern Rockies on Thursday
morning before exiting the region Friday morning. This
disturbance will bring another period of strong and gusty winds
to portions of the Central and North Central Montana plains and
north-south valleys of Southwest Montana, in addition to light
precipitation to the Continental Divide. Finally, the third and
overall strongest disturbance will begin to approach the Northern
Rockies from the Pacific Northwest Saturday morning before moving
over the region from Saturday evening through Sunday morning.
This disturbance will not only have the best opportunity to
produce widespread strong, if not high, winds, but also
precipitation mainly in the form of snow, especially in the
mountains. - Moldan
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
High Winds from this afternoon through Tuesday :
Confidence remains high in High Winds materializing along the
Rocky Mountain Front this afternoon and persisting through
Tuesday morning, with the strongest winds occurring between 10
and 30 miles of the Continental Divide north of the MT HWy 200
corridor, especially near the East Glacier Park Area. BUFKIT
sounding continue to support a favorable thermal profile near
ridgetops with wind speeds of 35-55kts within this stable layer
to support mountain wave activity. Additionally, and more
importantly in the case of this event, the pressure gradient
between Cut Bank and Kalispell will increase from between 6mb to
8mb late this afternoon/early this evening to 10mb by midnight
tonight, and then peak at between 10mb to 12mb early Tuesday
morning. This strong pressure gradient alone will likely support
wind gusts of 50-70 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front and over
the adjacent plains, with any mountain wave activity supporting
additional speed increases. The High Wind Warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent foothills and plains, and Eastern
Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera Counties will
therefore continue, with the only adjustment being to move the
start time forward for the East Glacier Park Region and Northern
High Plains given the potential earlier onset of High Winds here.
- Moldan
Temperatures:
Milder temperatures are already in place across much of Southwest
and Central Montana valleys. This more mild airmass will make
inroads on the plains into Tuesday, though will take its time
making it across the entirety of the plains. Areas like Havre
that are notorious for holding on to the cooler temperatures will
once again be slow to warm up this week.
After a brief cooldown across the plains Wednesday an even milder
airmass makes another push into the region Thursday into
Saturday.
This weekend:
Cluster guidance still favors ridging in some capacity this
weekend, though there are an increasing number of members that
are favoring at least a partial breakdown of the ridge. Scenarios
that favor this breakdown would result in a period of gusty winds
and would increase chances for precipitation across the region.
The chance for a 58 mph gust around Cut Bank Saturday is around
75%, increasing to around 85% in Browning. -AM
&&
.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF Period
The main concern for this period will be winds over North Central
and Central Montana. Strong northwest winds aloft will continue
mountain wave turbulence with periods of low-level wind shear.
Surface winds will be strongest along the Rocky Mountain Front
and adjacent plains, where gusts are forecast to exceed 45 kt at
times, with gusts in excess of 60 kt possible closer to the Rocky
Mountain Front. Winds will start to decrease after 15Z.
Overall, though, VFR conditions are forecast to continue across
North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana through at least
04/00Z. Mainly high-level cloudiness will pass over the area for
much of the period, but mid-level cloudiness will start to
increase over the plains after 15Z. Patchy fog is possible north
and east of KHVR and in some Southwest MT valleys, but the
probability that fog will directly impact any of the terminals is
low. -Coulston
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 32 46 23 41 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 27 42 19 33 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 24 48 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 19 47 20 46 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 6 38 6 39 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 23 48 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 7 35 16 27 / 0 0 10 10
LWT 28 47 25 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Tuesday for East Glacier Park
Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-
Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.
&&
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
High Wind, Northern High Plains
- When
- December 2, 7:45 PM MST to 11:55 PM MST
- Where
- Northern High Plains forecast zone
- Measured
- 59 kt (68 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
- Coordinates
- 48.467, -112.610 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Montana Mesonet station Dog Gun Lake E (acedoggu) measured a 68 mph gust. Additionally, mesonet station MTBWG Browning (MT DOT) measured multiple 58 mph gusts.
High Wind, Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera
- When
- December 2, 10:25 PM MST to 11:25 PM MST
- Where
- Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera forecast zone
- Measured
- 36 kt (41 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- Mesonet
- Coordinates
- 48.529, -112.306 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Montana mesonet station Mission Lake S (acemissi) measured sustained winds, averaged over an hour, of 41 mph.
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Winter Weather in Kentucky, December 2, 20242 deaths · $50,000 · 19 events
- Winter Weather in Missouri, December 2, 20241 death · 1 injured · $30,000 · 3 events
- Cold in Wisconsin, December 2, 20241 death · 1 event
- Winter Weather in Indiana, December 2, 2024$700,000 · 1 event
- Winter Weather in Illinois, December 2, 20247 injured · 4 events
- Winter Weather in Illinois, December 2, 202419 events
- Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in Tennessee, December 2 to 3, 202412 events
- Dense Fog in California, December 2, 20247 events
- Winter Weather in Indiana, December 2, 20246 events
- Winter Weather in North Carolina, December 2 to 3, 20246 events
- Winter Weather in North Carolina, December 2 to 3, 20245 events
- Lake-Effect Snow in Pennsylvania, December 2 to 4, 20243 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1219410, 1219409.