Tornado and Hail in Missouri, March 14, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
642 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through mid morning,
  mainly along and north of I-70. A few of these storms over
  central and northeast Missouri into west central Missouri could
  produce large hail and damaging winds.

-Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
 and evening (60 to 90 percent chance) over much of the area. The
 strongest of these storms will have the potential to produce hail
 larger than golfballs, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The latest surface analysis is showing a surface low just west of
Kansas City with a warm front extending east-northeastward across
northern Missouri into central Illinois.  A cold front extended
southwest into Oklahoma.   Latest regional radar is showing a train
of thunderstorms moving across northern Missouri with an additional
line of thunderstorms moving northeast out of Kansas into southwest
Missouri.  The latest runs of the CAMS including the HRRR are
showing the first line moving quickly across the CWA before sunrise,
while the second line will move across the central CWA between 11-
15Z posing an additional threat for wind and hail.  All of this
convection will likely push a outflow boundary into the southern
part of the CWA this morning, which may push a bit back to the north
by this afternoon in response to the strong southwesterly low level
flow.  Do still expect thunderstorm development along the this
boundary by mid afternoon as RAP/NAM are showing MLCAPEs near 2000
J/kg under a weakening cap underneath a right entrance region of a
upper level jet streak.  The convective mode looks thunderstorms
will likely start out as supercells which quickly become severe
capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and possible
tornadoes.  There will likely then be a quick transition to mixed
modes by late afternoon and evening as the shear vector becomes
aligned with the boundary. The HRRR is showing convection becoming
more numerous from around the metro and south and east before
shifting into the southern and eastern parts of the CWA overnight.

Another warm day is expected, though temperatures may be tempered
early today by the clouds and thunderstorms before there is some
recovery early this afternoon.  Temperatures will start to drop late
tonight behind the front with highs 15-20 degrees cooler tomorrow.

Britt

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Looks like a dry weekend, but a secondary front will make Sunday
cooler than Saturday.  Both Sunday night and Monday night look like
they will have lows in the 20s over much of the area.  Temperatures
will warm back above normal by the middle next week with the next
chance of rain holding off until Wednesday night and Thursday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible through
this evening with the most likely times to affect each terminal
to be at UIN through 14Z and again 17-22Z, at COU/JEF between
through 14Z and again 21-01Z, and the St. Louis metro sites
between 13-15Z and 22-02Z. The strongest storms will have the
potential to have MVFR and possible IFR visibilities and ceilings
in brief heavy downpours and well as possible hail and wind gusts
over 35 knots. These windows may still shift depending on when
the thunderstorms develop again later today. In addition, a cold
front will move through the terminals tonight causing winds to
turn out of the north late in the period. Ceilings will also fall
into the low MVFR range tonight at UIN and the St. Louis metro TAF
sites.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
458 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151000-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
458 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely through tonight. Some of these
thunderstorms could be severe capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this evening.

Britt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
401 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW La Grange          40.04N 91.51W
03/14/2024                   Lewis              MO   911 Call Center

            Large tree down. Diameter unknown.

&&

Pfahler