Marginal mixed-layer instability and effective bulk shear around 30 knots led to weak organization of scattered storms during the late afternoon and evening hours from eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota. The strongest cells produced up to quarter size hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
Marginal mixed-layer instability and effective bulk shear around 30 knots led to weak organization of scattered storms during the late afternoon and evening hours from eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota. The strongest cells produced up to quarter size hail. A deeper sub-cloud dry layer supported spotty stronger wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 4:58 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 558 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon to mid evening, diminishing again by midnight tonight. A few strong to severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. - Patchy fog again possible tonight-early Sunday. Widespread dense fog is not expected, but isolated visibility below a mile is possible. - Unsettled weather continues early next week with spotty afternoon to early evening showers/storms Sunday-Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected. - Cooler than normal temperatures for early July through the early part of next week, but trending closer to normal by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Afternoon/Evening: Focus will be on the wave currently evident on WV imagery diving through the central Dakotas as of early afternoon. This will be entering an environment characterized by MLCAPE values of up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While deep layer shear is weighted south of I-90 away from the better dynamics, up to 30-35 kts of EBWD is progged north of I-90 and may allow for some organization of thunderstorms. Additionally, fairly straight hodographs may allow for splitting cells in any of this more organized activity. Large hail up to ping pong ball size appears to be the primary risk with wind gusts up to 60-65 mph possible with an occasional sounding showing a modest dry subcloud layer and DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. While an extremely low potential, a muddled low level wind profile can at times lend to a low end landspout potential with non-supercell parameter between 0.5-2 through the deeper convergence zones. In terms of rainfall, PWATS around 1.25 and 850 mb dewpoints exceeding 10C will likely allow for efficient rain rates in any healthier thunderstorms, although activity looks progressive enough to prevent any widespread issues. HREF PMM/LPMM do show the potential of localized pockets to around 2-2.5 inches with most locations less than that. While unwelcome in flood stricken areas, don't suspect we'll see any significant river rises from the more isolated amounts and instead focus for any problems will likely be in urban and poor drainage areas. Overnight: As has been the case the last couple of mornings, very well could see some patchy fog in low lying areas. Have introduced this mention into the forecast through the daybreak hours Sunday morning. Sunday: Another day where forecast soundings suggest the potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening hours as the cooler upper low swings overhead. Lack of a stronger wave likely keeps activity non-severe and less organized than today. Will keep chance level POPs in the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures again in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Monday thru Wednesday: No real significant changes for the early to mid work week as occasional weak waves slide down the backside of the upper trough lending to occasional afternoon/evening shower chances. At this time, the focus looks to be near and east of I-29. Thursday and Friday: West coast ridging tries to build eastward and should provide for drier conditions and warming temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 555 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area through the evening, and there will be a risk of isolated severe storms. Thunderstorms end from west to east by late evening, and with very light winds there will be a possibility of patchy fog. Additional shower and thunderstorm development will be possible on Sunday afternoon and evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && DISCUSSION...Kalin AVIATION...JM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-071745- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook- Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton- Union- 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening, with a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms. Isolated large hail up to ping pong ball size, along with damaging winds gusts to 65 mph are the primary threats. While unlikely, a landspout cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rain is also possible with stronger storms. The strongest storms are expected between 3 pm and 10 pm. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Chances for mainly afternoon to early evening showers and storms continue early next week, Sunday through Tuesday. While isolated lightning is a threat with any storm, severe weather is not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Any reports of severe weather are appreciated.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
523 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0520 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Tracy 44.24N 95.62W
07/06/2024 M54 MPH Lyon MN AWOS
A 54 mph wind gust was recorded at the Tracy
Municipal Airport.
&&
IGPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
558 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0548 PM Hail 3 NE Badger 44.51N 97.17W
07/06/2024 E1.00 Inch Kingsbury SD Public
Received a public report of quarter size.
Time was estimated using radar.
&&
IGThe Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 57 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:20 UTC.
3 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous 2 to 3 inch branches were downed by thunderstorm winds near downtown Edgerton.
Hail varied from pea to quarter size.
Quarter size hail produced considerable crop damage. Crop damage monetary losses are an estimate using data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1200010, 1200007, 1200008, 1200009.