leading to rainfall rates near two and a half inches per hour at times. Storm total rainfall by the next morning was largely between 1 and locally as high as 4-6 inches.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Unusually moist airmass ahead of an approaching mesolow and lake breezes led to development of efficient rain-producing showers and storms in the late afternoon...leading to rainfall rates near two and a half inches per hour at times. Storm total rainfall by the next morning was largely between 1 and locally as high as 4-6 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 1:42 PM EST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 242 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Shower and storm chances this afternoon and tonight. Primary concern will be heavy rainfall that may lead to some localized instances of ponding and flooding of prone areas. -Additional showers and storms expected at various times throughout much of the week. -Warmth and humidity continues through the forecast period, with highs well into the 80s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 242 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Very humid airmass currently in place across all of the APX footprint, as evidenced by current surface dewpoints hovering anywhere from 65 in Bellaire to an impressive 76 in Manistee as of 18z. Moisture advection in part supplied by slow moving mesolow currently visible over southern Lake Michigan on both visible and water vapor imagery will continue its slow trek eastward through mid Michigan before finally moving off the Lake Huron shore some time tomorrow morning into the early afternoon. We are dealing with an atmosphere primed for bouts of heavy rain if convection can develop, as evidenced by not only the 12z sounding observed here at the office, which was already showcasing saturation well through the profile, boosting PWATs to near 1.70... but also Pellston observing 0.2" of rain in about 5 minutes (almost 2.5"/hr rainfall rate) from a quick- hitting thunderstorm in the last hour. Expectation is that continued moisture feed should sustain, if not, enhance PWATs this evening into tonight, and with a little bit of surface warming, should be enough to generate instability to produce slow moving thunderstorms bringing localized outbursts of torrential rainfall. Eventually, the mesolow will move through as well, and with the loss of daytime heating, much of the activity overnight will be focused on the north end of that particular feature, and with the atmosphere as primed for efficient rain as it is, may produce a more widespread area of heavier rainfall favoring the Saginaw Bay region into portions of northeast lower into Tuesday morning before that activity finally shifts offshore with the departing mesolow. Net westerly flow in the wake of the mesolow will lead to potential for redevelopment along lake breezes near Lake Huron and especially the eastern Yoop, where convergence will be maximized. Primary Forecast Concerns: Storm Coverage: Shower and storm coverage has been largely isolated, but efficient in rainfall nonetheless. Expectation is that as differential heating continues, lake breezes will continue their march inland amid a mean southerly to south-southwesterly flow, leading to a favorable convergence axis across interior northern lower. Expecting shower and storm coverage to quickly increase as we head closer to the evening and instability peaks with diurnal heating. Best shower and storm coverage will favor areas generally between US 131 and M-33 later this afternoon, eventually tapering to some lingering stratiform rain as we progress into the evening and overnight. As far as severe storms go, not an overly active day in terms of severe... perhaps the most prolific of storms may be capable of stronger winds upon the collapse of their updrafts, but at this juncture, still looks like the primary concern from activity today will be the heavy rain.The most widespread coverage and favorable locales for heavy rain overnight will be favoring generally south of a Cadillac to Harrisville line. Rainfall Amounts: Given the slow moving nature of afternoon and evening storms across the interior, there is certainly potential for some impressive rainfall amounts on a localized basis. Depending on which poison one picks (guidance, that is), it is not impossible for select areas that manage to observe repeated torrential rainfall outbursts may see in excess of 3.00" of rainfall, all in a very short period of time. Certainly potential for disruptions in the form of ponding / flooding of poorly draining / low lying areas with those kinds of rainfall rates / amounts, especially if the higher end of guidance hits, which has some localized 5"+ amounts by 03z tonight... which admittedly is a touch on the extreme side, but enough guidance is on board with this to leave it in the realm of possibility. Looking at rainfall associated with mesolow... this would actually be where the greatest flooding concerns may arise tonight into tomorrow. A more widespread footprint of efficient rainfall is anticipated across select headwaters regions of basins draining into Saginaw Bay, with rainfall also bleeding into the lowlands closer to the lake. Latest guidance is painting a general 1.00-2.00" of rainfall across this particular region, with some guidance spiking localized maxima as high as 4.00"+ through Tuesday morning. It is paramount to note that this will be quite the narrow, but nonetheless, intense corridor of rainfall, and will be heavily dependent on the exact track of the mesolow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 242 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 The upper level pattern will continue to feature nearly zonal with embedded disturbances moving through the flow from time to time over the next few days. Heights will remain high and low level moisture will remain at elevated levels. Therefore, more very warm temperatures and moderately high humidity levels look to continue for a few more days yet before likely slowly abating this weekend and especially early next week. Perhaps a break in shower and storm chances Wednesday (though can't totally rule out a couple of pop up storms, especially south of M-72). Better shower and storm chances return Thursday into Friday as the next short wave moves through the flow. Highs generally in the 80s to near 90 through Saturday with the upper 70s to low 80s more common by early next week. Still rather muggy through Saturday with lows generally in the 60s through Saturday night then some 50s to low 60s starting to enter into the forecast Sunday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 TSRA will be prevalent across the board today, with potential for reduced visibilities and heightened wind gusts in and near showers and storms... with lowered ceilings leading to temporary MVFR conditions at times through the evening. Additional showers expected tonight, particularly for MBL through about 06z and APN as well through at least 14z Tuesday. In addition, lowered ceilings will become prevalent across the board, with potential for IFR conditions to develop as FG and BR commence before scouring out into some lingering CU through the morning into the afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...HAD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 257 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-301900- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 257 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop today. Localized torrential rainfall and some gusty winds are primary concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Additional showers and storms will be possible again Tuesday and at various times throughout the remainder of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-301900- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 257 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop today. Localized torrential rainfall and some gusty winds are primary concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Additional showers and storms will be possible again Tuesday and at various times throughout the remainder of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
NWS Employee reported flooding of underpass at I-75 and M-32 in Gaylord, along with several other instances of street flooding in the city. KGLR ASOS reported 1.30 inches of rain in approximately 20 minutes; 24 hour total of 2.07 inches ending 7am EST July 30th.
Three to six inches of rain fell in the Elmira area in a few hours resulting in flooding in yards and farm fields. A photo of a washout in a gravel driveway showed the rear end of an extended cab pickup partially engulfed by the washout, up to the depth of the top of the rear tires.
Broadcast media shared a photo of street flooding in Indian River. Water was up to the bottom of the body on a Volkswagen sedan.
Broadcast media showed photos of minor flooding in the Mancelona area. 2.31 inches of rain was reported at an automated mesonet station in Mancelona as of 820pm, with a storm total of over 3 inches reported by a CoCoRaHS observer the next morning.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1205481, 1205482, 1205497, 1205499.