NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 4, 8:06 AM EST, 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 4, 8:06 AM EST, 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
906 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Decreasing winds and lingering rain and snow today as the low
pressure center weakens and moves north. Mainly dry and cold
tonight. Unsettled conditions may linger into this weekend as
the storm will be slow to depart.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
855 am update...
overall current conditions are tracking pretty close to the
forecast, so not anticipating to make any major updates. Core of
the strongest easterly LLJ is slowly moving north and we are
seeing the winds starting to diminish across the Cape and
Islands. Will likely pull down parts of the High Wind Warning in
the near future. Still some gusty winds as far inland as Central
MA, especially the western side of the Worcester Hills thanks to
some downsloping of those easterly winds coming down the higher
terrain. Winds aren't necessarily very strong, but with some wet
snow in the trees, it's probably leading to additional to limbs
coming down and thus a bit more power outages in that area.
Strong winds will continue for several more hours across the
Boston and North Shore hours as the core of the LLJ is over that
area now.
On the coastal flooding aspect, we are just passing high tide
right now. Nearly 4ft surge in Boston which is very impressive.
Luckily astro tides aren't super high, so it looks like total
water levels in Boston topped out about 13.3ft. Solid minor
category. However with the strong east winds and very high/rough
seas, that's given an added boost to the coastal flooding and
causing some additional erosion and putting us into moderate
impact level in some locations. However conditions will be
improving the next couple of hours as we move away from high
tide.
Still seeing a mix of precipitation across the forecast area.
Could be another 1-2" of wet snow to come across the higher
elevations of the Berks and Worcester Hills, but for most of the
area where we are seeing snow (which is northern CT across
central MA), air temperatures are 33-36F and even though there
are thick clouds, there is some solar insolation making its way
through which will mitigate any accumulation. In fact, I'd
expect the snow that did accumulate will do a good amount of
melting. Will evaluate conditions as we go through the day, but
I expect we will be able to pull down the Winter headlines a
little later in the day.
Previous Discussion...
Key Points
* Decreasing winds this afternoon
* Lingering rain and snow
Decreasing winds today as the center of the low pressure system
weakens as it move northeast. Winds remain strong this morning
gusting 30-50mph, then decreasing this afternoon to 20-30mph,
while shifting NW. Will allow the High Wind Warning to expire
across the south shore at 5am, with the remaining wind headlines
still set to expire at 2pm this afternoon.
The core of the closed upper level low moves overhead today.
This will provide enough energy to continue light rain and
snow showers esspically across NE MA. Expecting precip to be
mainly snow away from the immediate coasts. Near the coasts,
precip will likely fall as a rain snow mix. Additional
accumulations of 3-6 inches is possible in the high terrain
above 1000ft. Below 1000ft, a coating to 1in is possible where
winter headlines remain in effect. Will allow the winter
headlines to continue through this morning, with the advisory
across NE MA continuing int&&o this evening.
High temps today stay on the cooler side only topping out in the
low to mid 30s, except over the Cape and Islands where highs
will reach the mid 40s. With gusty winds today, the feels like
temperature will drop into the mid 20s, making it feel more like
early February then early April.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Key Point
* Mainly dry and cold
The center of the surface low moves NE into northern New England
while the upper low continues to spin over the region. Winds
continues diminish overnight possibly decoupling and going calm
as the pressure gradient weakens. Overnight temps will be quite
chilly in the upper 20s to low 30s with cold air being dragged
down behind the departing low. Skies remain mostly cloudy which
should help overnight lows from bottoming out in the mid to low
20s. Dry air continues to work in behind the surface low brining
an end to the rain/snow showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights:
* Cloudy and cool Fri through Sat with intermittent showers
(flurries or light snow showers across the higher terrain).
* Decreasing cloud cover Sunday with moderating temperatures.
* Drying out for Monday and Tuesday, but another storm system
from the Great Lakes could arrive later Wednesday.
This forecast is still dominated by a blocky mid level pattern
into early next week. Fortunately, it does appear that southern
New England should get out from beneath the easternmost trough
of the omega block towards Sunday. Now looking like our region
will have the benefit of a mid level ridge for early next week.
The timing of this blocky pattern may change with later
forecasts, as often happens with these scenarios.
With the colder air still lingering aloft into Saturday, still a
risk for some showers, mainly across northern and eastern MA.
Expecting mainly rain as the precipitation type, but could see
some snow across the higher terrain during the night. Should not
amount to much accumulation given the duration and scattered
nature of these showers.
Drier conditions with a warming trend anticipated Sunday into at
least Tuesday. A backdoor cold front could trigger some showers
Wednesday, but since this is the end of this forecast, do not
have very high confidence in those sorts of details.
While dry conditions are likely for the eclipse on Monday, not
expecting skies to be completely clear. Those with an interest
in the eclipse should monitor later forecasts through this
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Today...High Confidence
Scattered rain/snow showers linger this morning, along with
periods of light drizzle. IFR/LIFR CIGS for most terminals,
with the greatest chance for LIFR over the Cape and Islands.
Farther west, CIGS will hang around the IFR/MVFR line most of
the day. Winds begin to diminish tomorrow but turn NE then NW in
the afternoon, still gusting 20-40 knots.
Tonight... Moderate confidence
CIGS improve to MVFR/VFR from south to north. Mainly dry with
west winds at 10-15 knots
Tomorrow... Moderate confidence
VFR/MVFR with scattered rain/snow mainly north of the Mass Pike.
Winds turn WNW gusting 15-20 knots.
KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence
IFR/LIFR today. Precip lightens up with only scattered showers
for much of the day. Should see improvements to MVFR/VFR
tonight, however uncertainty is moderate.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF trends
IFR. Rain lightens up after 12z and snow could mix in at times.
CIGS improve MVFR/VFR this afternoon, but uncertainty is
moderate.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt.
Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today:
Storm Warnings remain in effect for the northern waters. Will
allow Storm Warnings to transition to Gale Warnings this
morning across the southern waters. Winds will decrease from
south to north today, but remaining elevated at 20-40 knots.
Seas remain very rough with 7-14 feet waves in the southern
water and 10-18 foot waves in the northern waters.
Tonight:
Winds continue to diminish overnight dropping below gale force
by 00z. Winds turn westerly at 10-20 knots. Seas decrease to
4-8 feet.
Tomorrow:
Winds pick up slightly gusting 15-25 knots while turning WNW.
Seas remain 4-8 feet.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of liquid precipitation has fallen
across southern New England and will renew river flooding for
area rivers in Rhode Island and eastern MA tonight into
tomorrow. River flood warnings have been renewed along the
Pawcatuck, Pawtuxet and Wood Rivers in Rhode Island and the
Charles and Taunton Rivers in Massachusetts. Latest forecasts
from The Northeast River Forecast Center suggest crests to take
place late tomorrow night or on Friday. These forecasts are
subject to change based on how the precipitation forecast
unfolds. River Flood Statements (FLS) will be issued as new
forecast information becomes available.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Widespread minor flooding is expected along both the south and
east coasts during the morning high tide, with a risk for
moderate flooding for portions of the eastern MA coast.
Along the east coast, the greatest risk is from Scituate to the
north shore as the core of the low level jet will coincide with
the high tide around 8 AM. Latest guidance and observations
indicate a 2.5-3.5 ft surge along the south coast, with a 3.0-4.5 ft
surge along the east coast of MA. With 20+ ft seas just offshore,
this will be enough for widespread minor coastal flooding with
pockets of moderate coastal flooding. The greatest risk for moderate
flooding will be along the North Shore, including Plum Island.
Significant beach erosion is also possible for vulnerable areas from
the ocean side of the Cape to northeast MA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MAZ002-
008.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ003.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ004-
026.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MAZ005-006-013-
014.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for MAZ005-006-
012.
Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for MAZ007-
015-016-019-022>024.
High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MAZ007-015-
016-019-022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
MAZ009.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230-233-234.
Storm Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ231-254.
Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232-255-256.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ235>237.
Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250-251.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP
NEAR TERM...Belk/KP/Nash
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...Belk/KP
HYDROLOGY...Belk
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Belk