NWS Caribou, ME wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 10:42 AM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 10:42 AM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1042 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the region today. A strong
cold front crosses the region tonight. High pressure builds
across the region later Thursday into Friday. Low pressure will
remain south of the region Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Update...
No changes to any headlines. Strong low pressure will lift
north across Quebec province today drawing a warm front north of
the region, with a cold front starting to cross New England
late. An initial round of rain has now mostly exited the region,
leaving showers and patchy drizzle. Rain will increase in
coverage and intensity again this afternoon. A strong southerly
low level jet will begin to cross the region this afternoon.
Gusty south winds will persist through the afternoon,
increasing late. Record, or near record, high temperatures are
expected across the region today. High temperatures will range
from the upper 40s to around 50. Have updated to adjust for
current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures
and rain chances.
Previous Discussion...
A Complex Dynamic Storm System Impacts Maine Today into Tonight
Setup...A large powerful storm system over the Great Lakes that
produced tornadic supercells on Tuesday will track north into
Ontario and then Quebec today. A warm front is lifting north
this morning with a large surge of moisture. PWATs are
increasing to 1-1.2 inch which will potentially be an all time
record for CAR CWA for the month of February at over 0.75 inch
above normal climatology. This moisture is coming out of the
Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic seaboard transportation at
925-850mb. Strong warm air advection today is pushing north with
record high temperatures expected. A strong powerful low-level
jet will increase this morning and push into Downeast Maine. The
powerful cold front will push through Maine tonight with strong
cold air advection developing in its wake.
Rainfall...Warm front lifting north this morning will provide
light to moderate rain this morning as a stream of rainfall
continues a S to N track over the Gulf of Maine into Downeast
areas. As the strong cold front pushes east today expect a
general enhancement of surface lift with the strengthening
convergence over the area resulting in heavier rainfall rates
thanks to the near record PWATs. As the cold front this evening
approaches expect the embedded convective elements in the band
of rain associated with the front. This may produce brief
torrential downpours resulting in excessive runoff. WPC
highlights this with the "Marginal" risk of excessive rainfall
today into tonight. Rainfall will be heaviest along the Downeast
coast inland to the Route 9 corridor. Widespread 2-3 inches in
these Downeast locations with isolated higher amounts possible.
Widespread 1-1.5 inches across the Bangor area, Central
Highlands and up along I-95 to the Houlton area. North of here
expecting generally 0.5-0.75 inch with isolated higher amounts.
Upslope enhancements are possible due to the southerly flow
along the upslope southeast sides of the Longfellow Mtns from
the Baxter region back southwestward into Piscataquis County.
This heavy rainfall is falling on melting ripe snowpack with
frozen grounds due to deep frost. This will result in the
potential of significant runoff into area streams, creeks and
rivers. In addition, ice on these rivers is likely to break up
and move. See the Hydrology section below for more details.
Given this concern, have a Flood Watch in effect through
Thursday afternoon for rain on snow, snowmelt and ice jam
potential.
Winds...The 925mb LLJ is increasing this morning focused nearly
due SSW to NNE across much of Maine. Winds will be increasing
60-75kt along the Downeast coast into portions of interior
Downeast. Northward the LLJ looks to peak out around 45-55kt
based on the latest hi-res modeled soundings. Modeled soundings
show the mixing height peaking out at around 1.5-2kft which will
allow for a large portion of this LLJ to mix down. As FROPA
approaches this evening a rapid increase of winds is possible
especially with any convective elements ahead of the front.
Winds will likely gust 55-60mph across coastal Hancock and into
portions of Washington County. Based on the latest hi-res cams
there is a high likelihood interior Washington reaches High Wind
Warning criteria. Given this, opted to expand the High Wind
Warning from Coastal Hancock and Washington into Interior
Washington. Inland higher confidence in mixing of 40-45kt winds
to the surface has prompted a need to expand the Wind Advisory
northward to the Longfellow Mtns of Piscataquis and Penobscot
Counties along with the higher terrain of Southern Aroostook
County with gusts up to 50mph. North of here into the North
Woods and the rest of the Crown gusts 40-45mph are not out of
the question. In the High Wind Warning expect scattered to
numerous power outages with potentially widespread issues.
Across the Wind Advisory expecting isolated to scattered power
outages.
Temperatures...Record high temperatures are expected today with
the strong powerful warm air advection. See the Climate section
below for more details. Tonight, powerful FROPA will result in
rapid temperature falls likely resulting in a Flash Freeze that
will make untreated surfaces extremely slippery in many
locations from west to east after midnight. Timing of FROPA
looks to be 11PM-1AM in Greenville, 1AM-3AM in Caribou, 1-3AM in
Bangor and 2-4AM in Calais. Today's rainfall will likely wash
away much of the salt residue on the roadways. Given that precip
will still be ongoing, the strong wind gusts will unlikely to
dry roads and this makes Flash Freeze a serious concern.
Temperatures will be falling 5-7 degrees an hour behind the
front.
Snowfall...As the front crashes east the boundary layer will
rapidly cool and expecting rain to mix and change to snow
quickly after FROPA. Much of the model guidance is in good
agreement of a few hours of steady precip before tapering to
showers. This means a chance of accumulating snows looks good
and have trended the forecast in that direction. In addition to
flash freeze potential a quick 1-2 inches of snow will fall on
that icy surface making things potentially very slick. Lastly
snowfall ratios will be rapidly increasing to 18-20:1 across the
north so in the open fields of Aroostook and Northern Penobscot
County we can expect some blowing and drifting of snow
especially if any of the existing snowpack survives with the
light fluffy snow landing on a smooth "icy" surface.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With strong cold air advection behind the recent FROPA,
temperatures will continue to drop through the day on Thursday,
with the warmest temperatures occurring early Thursday morning.
The pressure gradient aloft will slowly relax through the end of
the week, but gusty winds 30 to 35 mph are still expected
through Thursday afternoon. Snow showers will quickly exit the
region to the east, and though as any recent snowfall ages it
will be harder to blow around, patchy drifting snow is still
possible into Thursday afternoon. Strong cold air advection will
also drop wind chills, with wind chills dropping towards the
teens below zero across the north into Thursday evening.
Overnight Thursday night, temperatures will continue to drop
amid breezy winds, with lows falling to around zero across the
north and into the mid single digits above zero Downeast. Wind
chills Thursday night will fall into the teens below zero across
the north and single digits below zero Downeast. Use caution if
venturing outside Thursday into Thursday night by wearing
multiple layers. If power has gone out, remember to never run a
generator indoors and use caution when dealing with alternate
heat sources.
Winds will continue to diminish into the day on Friday, and
shift southwesterly in direction as the ridge of high pressure
shifts eastward, leading to a return of warm air advection for
the area. High temperatures on Friday will rebound to just above
freezing Downeast and into the mid 20s across the north. Friday
night will be more mild as well with lows only dropping into the
20s across the forecast area with continued warm air advection
and increasing cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A shortwave will pass south of the Gulf of Maine this weekend,
with most precipitation missing our forecast area, though some
rain showers may make it into the Coastal Downeast region
through Saturday night.
Temperatures will continue to increase with warm air advection
through the long term, as high temperatures return to around 50
degrees across the entire CWA, and lows only fall to around
freezing throughout the forecast area.
As for precipitation chances, several quick moving shortwaves
are modeled to approach the area through the long term, but the
timing and placement of these features vary greatly between
various models and from run to run.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Northern Terms...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, today
with rain and patchy fog. S winds 15-25kt with gusts up to
35kt. Southerly LLWS up to 55kt likely. Tonight, IFR cigs/vsby
through 06z with RA likely. RA changes to SN after 06z. IFR/LIFR
cigs/vsby likely. LLWS likely. S winds 20-25kt with gusts to
40kts before 06z shifting W 20-25kt with gusts up to 35kt after
06z.
Southern Terms...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, today with rain and
patchy fog. S winds 20-30kt with gusts up to 45kt. Southerly
LLWS up to 60kt likely. IFR/LIFR cigs/vsby tonight before 06z
with +RA. S winds 20-30kt with gusts up to 50kt before 06z,
possible >50kt gusts with convection before the approx 06z
FROPA. Winds shift SW-W after 06z 15-25kt with gusts up to 45kt.
RA changes to SN after 06z. IFR/LIFR vsby with SN possible.
LLWS possible after 06z.
SHORT TERM:
Thurs...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers early Thurs
morning, then VFR. W winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30
kts.
Thurs night through Fri...VFR. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kts
gusting to 25 kts Thurs night. Winds shifting SW 10 to 15 kts
Fri with gusts to 20 kts.
Fri night through Sat. VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. S to SW
winds around 10 kts.
Sat night through Sun...VFR. Slight chance of a rain shower
along the coast Sat night. Winds light and variable.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Storm Warning remains in effect for all the waters
from 1 PM this afternoon through 4 AM Thursday. S winds
increase 30-40kt with gusts up to 50 to 55 kt into late tonight.
Seas building 15-20ft over the Coastal Waters and 8-13ft on the
intra-coastal waterways. Tonight winds will shift rapidly
westward after midnight with FROPA. Westerly Gales are expected
into tomorrow morning. Seas will remain 15-19ft over the Coastal
Waters and 7-12ft over the intra- coastal waterways. Wave
period generally 8 seconds today becoming 10-11 seconds tonight.
Rain will reduce vsby today, rain will change to snow late
tonight into tomorrow morning before tapering to snow showers.
There will be a storm surge around the time of high tide tonight
depending on the timing of the front. For more details see the
coastal flooding section below. Sea surface water temperatures
are in the mid to upper 30s from the Downeast coast out 25nm and
east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay. Light
freezing spray will be possible by daybreak tomorrow.
SHORT TERM: Gale force winds expected to last Thursday through
Thursday night, decreasing towards small craft advisory
conditions on Friday. Small craft advisory conditions likely to
last into the weekend. Light freezing spray on Thursday, likely
becoming moderate freezing spray Thursday night. Seas 8 to 11 ft
on the coastal waters Thursday, decreasing to 3 to 5 ft on
Friday. Seas may increase once more into the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect from this afternoon into
Thursday afternoon for the Moosehead Region, Baxter Region and
Southern Aroostook County southward to the Downeast coast. An
extended warm spell is expected to last through early Thursday
morning until cold front passage. Many hours of temperatures +
dew points above freezing continues through late tonight.
Temperature + Dew Point thawing degree hours are generally
700-1000 from Northeast Aroostook County southward into Interior
Downeast Maine. Thawing degree hours greater than 700 are an
indication of potential ice movement expected with >1000
indicating ice movement likely. In addition, rainfall is falling
on top of a ripe snow pack. Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch
across the north with 1-2+ inches across the Central Highlands,
with 2 to 3 inches Downeast. Latest snow water equivalent
analysis from NOHRSC indicates SWEs generally 1-3 inches across
interior Downeast and Central Highlands with 2-4 inches across
the North. Along the Downeast coast SWEs are a trace or zero
thanks to bare grounds. Also, strong gusty warm winds will aid
in the rapid melting of the snow pack. Significant snow pack
loss is expected across the entire area through Thursday AM.
Many locations from the Moosehead Region, Baxter Region to
Houlton southward will see complete snow pack loss. The ground
frost is generally 9-15 inches across much of the CWA so any
melt will be running off with the deep frozen grounds.
Snowpack melt + rainfall may cause rises on area rivers that
will result in ice decay and rot in the rivers likely resulting
in ice movement especially in the Piscataquis, Penobscot,
Mattawamkeag and Downeast basins. The Aroostook and St. John
Basins will see some movement of the ice due to rot and gradual
river rises from runoff, however widespread movement isn't
expected. River ice thickness is generally 4-9 inches across
southern and central areas with 8-18 inches across the north.
This is significantly less compared to typical years thanks to
the above normal temperatures this winter. This could result in
ice movement earlier than typical years. Those living along
rivers prone to ice jam flooding should continue to monitor the
forecast.
Lastly, along the Downeast coast inland to the southern Central
Highlands rain is falling on frozen ground. In the absence of
snow this will likely result in significant rises of smaller
creeks and streams which could cause potential flooding. In
addition with frozen grounds expect possible urban poor drainage
flooding issues in the Greater Bangor area. Typical with these
setups there may be embedded convective elements which could
result in isolated flash flooding given the frozen grounds which
has been noted by WPC in their latest D1 ERO placing all of
Maine in "Marginal Risk" for excessive rainfall.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High tides today and tonight will be less than the monthly
highest with Bar Harbor high tides around 10.5 ft. That said,
the timing of the high tide tonight is around 1:19 AM, and the
front (which will shift onshore winds to out of the west,
lessening any coastal impacts) is expected to cross the coast
sometime between midnight and 3 AM. So there is a slight chance
(30%) that the front will not completely clear the coast prior
to high tide, such that high tide coincides with onshore winds
gusting 50 to 60 mph and seas 8 to 11 ft. All of these factors
together could result in storm surge up to 1 ft, and this surge
would be most likely to occur over low-lying areas along coastal
Washington county, where the front will be last to pass
through.
What little coastal flooding impacts that are forecast will be
highly dependent on the timing of the front, and a shift by an
hour or two earlier could lead to little to no coastal flood
threat.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record or near record max minimum temperature are possible
today, February 28...
Caribou: 35 set in 2000. Forecast low is 38.
Bangor: 36 set in 2000. Forecast low is 40.
Millinocket: 40 set in 1903. Forecast low is 37.
Houlton: 35 degrees set in 2000. Forecast low is 39.
Record or near record high temperatures are possible on today.
Here are the records for today, February 28...
Caribou: 45 set in 2000. Forecast high is 49.
Bangor: 51 set in 2017. Forecast high is 50.
Millinocket: 55 set in 1903. Forecast high is 50.
Houlton: 49 degrees set in 2000. Forecast high is 50.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday
for MEZ003>006-010-011-015-016-031-032.
Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon for MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Thursday for MEZ017-029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ050>052.
&&
Near Term...Norcross/Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Norcross/Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Norcross/Sinko/AStrauser
Hydrology...Sinko
Tides/Coastal Flooding...AStrauser
Climate...AStrauser