During the day on September 23rd, a quasi-stationary front was draped across central Kentucky, with showers and thunderstorms moving along the boundary. South of the front across southern Kentucky, a humid, unstable air mass was present, as temperatures were able to rise into the low-to-mid 80s with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
During the day on September 23rd, a quasi-stationary front was draped across central Kentucky, with showers and thunderstorms moving along the boundary. South of the front across southern Kentucky, a humid, unstable air mass was present, as temperatures were able to rise into the low-to-mid 80s with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. While thunderstorms generally lacked organization as a result of modest wind shear, one or two stronger storms were able to develop in the afternoon, producing isolated wind damage in LaRue and Taylor County.
From the evening of September 23rd into the morning of September 24th, an approaching upper level disturbance caused the surface front to lift back to the north as a warm front, with surface low pressure developing and moving northeast across the mid-Mississippi Valley. By late morning on September 24th, the surface low was near the southern tip of Lake Michigan, with a stronger cold front extending southward into the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures were able to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, creating an unstable environment supportive of thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and early evening hours, waves of showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms moved across central Kentucky. Storms were better organized than on the 23rd, as wind shear was stronger given the approaching upper level disturbance. Scattered wind damage and a couple reports of severe hail were received across central Kentucky, with one particularly explosive cell producing golf ball sized hail in Clinton County. The cold front pushed through the region during the early evening hours on the 24th, bringing an end to the severe threat from west to east across the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 23, 2:39 PM EST, 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 339 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Waves of scattered showers and storms will continue this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms will be possible, particularly along and south of the Western KY/Bluegrass Parkways. * Strong to severe storms look increasingly likely Tuesday, especially along and east of I-65. Gusty winds will be the main severe threat, with small hail a secondary threat. * Drought-easing rainfall in the forecast as the remnants of a tropical system move into the region Friday. Stay tuned to latest updates from NHC on the forecast path/strength of this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 339 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 This afternoon and Tonight... The remnants of a cold front remain draped across the region this afternoon, with waves of showers and storms moving from west to east along the boundary. Widespread coverage of clouds and precipitation along and north of I-64 so far today has created a gradient in heating and instability which splits the FA in two. North of this gradient, stable conditions should suppress convection at least in the near term, while greater instability across south central and southeastern KY (up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will promote additional convective initiation over the next several hours. A few strong storms have already developed, and a continued risk for gusty winds and small hail will continue into the evening hours, primarily along and south of the western KY/Bluegrass Parkways. This evening into tonight, the 500 mb trough over the central Plains will move toward the Mississippi Valley and amplify, strengthening deep-layer flow over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. In response to the upper trough amplification, a LLJ core is expected to develop, with 35-40 kt SW winds progged over western KY late tonight into tomorrow morning. This SW LLJ should condition the atmosphere for additional waves of showers and thunderstorms as PW values maintain at around 1.6-1.9". Hi-res sounding progs show a stable layer near the sfc with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE aloft, so while the risk for strong to severe storms will be low, thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and lightning will continue to be possible overnight. With the rich moist air mass in place, diurnal temperature ranges will continue to be suppressed, with lows only expected to fall into the mid 60s to around 70 tonight. Tomorrow... Tomorrow, the upper trough will continue to shift eastward, with jet dynamics becoming more supportive for broad low-level rising motion as an area of upper diffluence moves into the Ohio Valley. As the coupled sfc/upper disturbance strengthens, a sfc low will develop across MO, moving northeast just north of the Wabash Valley during the day on Tuesday. The sfc front that is overhead today should be well north of the area by late tomorrow morning, placing the area within the warm unstable sector. At the same time, strong flow aloft for this time of year will allow for 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be supportive of organized clusters of convection. The main uncertainty lies in how unstable we can get tomorrow, especially if we have multiple waves of convection that move through late tonight into tomorrow morning. As an example of this, 12Z HREF mean SBCAPE tomorrow afternoon is around 1500 J/kg along and east of I-65. However, 10th percentile SBCAPE is less than 200 J/kg, while 90th percentile SBCAPE is around 2500 J/kg. As a result, tomorrow's severe risk definitely has a significant bust potential, but also has a relatively high ceiling as well. By the window of peak instability tomorrow afternoon, surface winds should be fairly veered across much of the area, so the main severe threat with any strong storms would be gusty or damaging straight-line winds, with a secondary threat being small hail. 12Z HRRR neural network probabilities indicate the greatest threat for damaging winds east of I-65 into eastern KY, with the peak timing between 18-22Z Tuesday (2-6 pm EDT). Multiple waves of convection are possible, continuing until sfc FROPA Tuesday evening. While antecedent conditions will allow us to receive quite a bit of water without significant issues, HREF localized probability-matched mean swaths of QPF greater than 2" do open up the possibility for localized flooding issues tomorrow afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 339 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Busy week ahead as we deal with first a cutoff upper low meandering across the mid-MS Valley and then what becomes of the remnants of a well-modelled and still not named tropical system! Tuesday evening, deterministic and ensemble guidance are in excellent agreement, placing the center of a 567 dm 500-mb low over northern Missouri. This location keeps our area in a southwesterly flow aloft at least for that evening, with a moist environment still in place. CAM's respond by keeping in widely scattered storms, mainly south of the I-64 corridor and east of I-65. As we get through the day Wednesday, the upper low sinks into the AR/MO border area, bringing some drier air briefly into our region. Cloud cover that day still should help limit any available instability, so that day stands the best chance to be low on pops and relatively cool high temperatures (near normal for late September). By "low" on pops I should say that still keeps in some likely-range chances (60-70%) in our southeastern counties, whereas southern IN and northern KY stay in the 20-30% range. For Thursday we see a transition, as the upper low continues its trek southward but interacts with the tropical system moving ashore somewhere along the NE Gulf Coast. The GEFS spreads for locations of the upper low are fairly high, whereas the Euro EPS and GEPS have more confidence. The latter two ensemble solutions allow more moisture to get pumped into our region, whereas the GEFS keeps more of it over the Deep South. That obviously has a big impact on how much precip we can get into our area, especially as we move into Friday! Latest NBM guidance looks in line with the grand ensemble data, both for the daytime period Thursday and getting into Thursday night. NBM PoP guidance looks pretty good for Friday/Friday night, given the current NHC forecast for this systems track...again in line with pops on the grand ensemble. A little concerned by 12Z GFS solution showing our area getting gapped...with the remnant center hung up in the Apalachians and the cutoff low much farther southwest, over the Arklatex. Again, in line with NHC forecast and 00Z EPS/GEPS and 12Z CMC/Euro solutions, think NBM guidance pops look pretty good. Will make an adjustment to wind and wind gusts up from NBM, based on Euro EPS guidance showing median peak gusts in the 30-40 mph range. Higher values aren't out of the question, but trending upward seems a good bet here. As far as hydro issues with the rains this week...areal average rainfall totals for this week/weekend based on current forecasts look to range from 2-4". This much rainfall on the drought grounds we have currently would barely bring some of our low-flow rivers in southern KY up to action stage. It would take 5-6" of rainfall to get them barely into minor flood stage. So it would seem we can handle (and we need it!) this much rainfall, but will message the chance for localized flooding possible. The weekend and start to next week are a bit more up in the air as far as confidence, as a lot will depend on distance to the merged cutoff upper low to our area. Still will hang onto fairly cloudy skies and even solid chances (30-50%) for measurable rainfall each day. Given the moist conditions, expect smaller diurnal temperature ranges each day this period...with high temperatures near normal and lows above. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A cold front continues to be draped across the region this afternoon, and waves of precipitation are riding along this boundary from west to east. The main area of precipitation will impact HNB and SDF over the next few hours, with more scattered showers and storms expected elsewhere. Confidence beyond this initial wave of precipitation is quite low, so have only included TSRA mention where there is moderately good confidence. While VFR conditions are expected outside of any heavy rain/storms through much of the forecast period, reduced ceilings and visibility would be possible Tuesday morning around sunrise, though confidence is also low in this. Winds will begin to pick up out of the south and southwest Tuesday morning, with stronger gusts expected Tuesday afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...CSG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 342 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-241945- Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry- Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson- Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin- Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon- Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion- Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey- Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair- Russell-Cumberland-Clinton- 342 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 /242 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will continue into tonight. A few strong storms are possible, with locally heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region. Gusty, potentially damaging winds is the primary severe threat, with small hail being a secondary threat. Monitor the latest forecasts as the remnants of a tropical system could impact our area by late week into the weekend. Heavy rains and gusty winds will be the main impacts Friday, with localized flooding possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed, especially Tuesday afternoon for reports of wind damage and hail. GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY: Storms will move toward the east at 20 to 25 mph tonight. Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity can be erratic and constantly evolving. Please use this with caution and be prepared for changing conditions. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. CSG/RJS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
249 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
KYZ024-027-028-231915-
Grayson KY-Hardin KY-Breckinridge KY-
249 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GRAYSON...
SOUTHEASTERN BRECKINRIDGE AND SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH
315 PM EDT/215 PM CDT/...
At 249 PM EDT/149 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles northwest of Leitchfield, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Leitchfield, Clarkson, Concord, Dyer, Constantine, Se Ree, Westview,
Saint Paul, Buras, and Solway.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3748 8645 3769 8650 3778 8617 3751 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 257DEG 24KT 3761 8637
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SRMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
154 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
KYZ075-081-231930-
Monroe KY-Cumberland KY-
154 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND
SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...
At 153 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tompkinsville, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Tompkinsville, Meshack, Raydure, Judio, Blythe, Otia, Boles, Hestand,
Vernon, and Ashlock.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3662 8568 3662 8569 3669 8571 3676 8547
3662 8542 3661 8548 3661 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 262DEG 17KT 3666 8562
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SRMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
312 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
KYZ024-027-028-053-063-231945-
Hart KY-Grayson KY-Larue KY-Hardin KY-Breckinridge KY-
312 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN LARUE...NORTH CENTRAL
HART...NORTHEASTERN GRAYSON...SOUTHEASTERN BRECKINRIDGE AND
SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT/245 PM CDT/...
At 312 PM EDT/212 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles northeast of Leitchfield, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Elizabethtown, Leitchfield, Clarkson, Upton, Sonora, Seven Corners,
Constantine, Saint Paul, Eastview, and Flint Hill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3746 8634 3770 8627 3775 8587 3742 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 264DEG 30KT 3758 8616
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SRMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
215 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
KYZ075-081-231945-
Monroe KY-Cumberland KY-
215 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...
At 215 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Celina, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Littrell, Peytonsburg, Stalcup, Kettle, Raydure, Tanbark, Judio,
Frogue, Vernon, and Ashlock.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3671 8554 3676 8531 3663 8529 3663 8530
3661 8548 3662 8554
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 266DEG 14KT 3666 8548
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SRMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
409 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
KYZ045-053-054-063>065-232045-
Hart KY-Marion KY-Taylor KY-Nelson KY-Larue KY-Green KY-
409 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL NELSON...
NORTHWESTERN GREEN...LARUE...WEST CENTRAL MARION...NORTHEASTERN HART
AND NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT/345 PM CDT/...
At 408 PM EDT/308 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles south of Hodgenville, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hodgenville, Upton, Bonnieville, Raywick, Boundary Oak, Howardstown,
Wabash, Bloyd, Lobb, and Vento.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3739 8597 3744 8593 3744 8589 3747 8590
3748 8589 3750 8588 3764 8577 3755 8540
3727 8554
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 275DEG 28KT 3746 8579
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SRMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
415 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
KYZ045-053-054-063>065-232045-
Hart KY-Marion KY-Taylor KY-Nelson KY-Larue KY-Green KY-
415 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL NELSON...
NORTHWESTERN GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN LARUE...WEST CENTRAL MARION...
NORTHEASTERN HART AND NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
EDT/345 PM CDT/...
At 415 PM EDT/315 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Hodgenville, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hodgenville, Wards, Boundary Oak, Attilla, Stiles, Bloyd, Badger,
Magnolia, Mac, and White Rose.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3741 8581 3757 8574 3755 8540 3736 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 275DEG 27KT 3747 8574
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SRMThe Louisville radar (KLVX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:14 UTC.
20 thunderstorm wind, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were blown down along U.S. Route 31 just north of Magnolia.
Strong winds resulted in scattered tree damage east of Magnolia in southeastern LaRue County.
Strong winds produced scattered tree damage across eastern and southeastern LaRue County.
A flag pole was damaged by strong winds in northwestern Taylor County.
Several large tree branches were blown down along Brackett Cemetery Road.
A couple trees were blown down along Greensburg Road.
Power poles and lines were damaged by strong winds in Hodgenville.
Trees were damaged and power lines were blown down in Springfield.
Structural damage occurred to the baseball field at Idle Hour Park. Scattered tree damage was observed throughout the park.
A few trees were downed in the River Bluff community.
A tree was blown down onto a house along Covered Bridge Road.
A tree and several large tree limbs were blown down near Maple Court in La Grange.
A few trees were blown down in Campbellsville.
Trees were blown down on J W York Road.
A few trees were blown down near Barren River Lake.
A tree was blown down along Austin Tracy Road.
A few trees were blown down in downtown Scottsville.
Trees were blown down along Old Glasgow Road.
A few trees were downed in Hodgenville.
Quarter sized hail was observed in Columbia.
A few trees and large tree limbs were downed in Stanford.
Half dollar sized hail was reported near Cumberland City.
Golf ball sized hail was observed near Cumberland City.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1215345, 1215348, 1215346, 1215347, 1215349, 1215351, 1215352, 1215354, 1215355, 1215357, 1215358, 1215363, 1215364, 1215356, 1215359, 1215360, 1215361, 1215362, 1215367, 1215365, 1215368, 1215370, 1215371.