A SW to NE oriented heavy rainfall band crossed Southern Illinois during the late evening hours of the 23rd. A second band formed ahead of the first, and then merged together resulting in a localized higher rainfall total swath of 3-5 inches from Southeast Jackson County through Northwest Williamson County into Southern Franklin County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A SW to NE oriented heavy rainfall band crossed Southern Illinois during the late evening hours of the 23rd. A second band formed ahead of the first, and then merged together resulting in a localized higher rainfall total swath of 3-5 inches from Southeast Jackson County through Northwest Williamson County into Southern Franklin County. The highest observed rainfall total was a CoCoRaHS site 2 miles ESE of Bush, IL which received 4.89 inches. Flash flooding was observed in West Frankfort while areas of standing water were observed further west-southwest. Severe weather potential did not end up materializing with this line, likely due to insufficient clearing and poor mid-level lapse rates.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 23, 4:37 PM CST, 5 hours 3 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 537 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight and the first part of Tuesday. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain will also be possible. - A cold front will move through the region Tuesday, bringing a brief spell of dry weather Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. - The remnants of tropical system look to bring rainy and breezy weather beginning Thursday through part or all of the weekend. Locally heavy rain is possible during this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 534 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night...Tricky forecast for near term part of the forecast, particularly with the potential for severe thunderstorms. Aloft, there is a positively-tilted longwave trough moving through the Central Great Plains towards the region. An H5 shortwave is also embedded within this flow pattern. At the surface, a weak surface low is located over eastern MO, with an associated warm front extending through southeast MO into far southern IL and far western KY. A trailing cold front extends southward over central and southern MO. Ongoing elevated convection across the EVV Tri-State will be exiting the region by 20-21z, but isolated to scattered surface- based convection will develop through the afternoon hours. Tonight, as the H5 shortwave approaches, more organized convection may develop across southeast MO and sweep eastward through the region of the region. Confidence regarding how severe tonight's storms will be is low. Surface winds may be locally-backed to the SE just south the warm front, which could enhance low-level shear. However, cloud cover is pretty plentiful, and mid-level lapse rates are very low. The bullish scenario is that a few low-topped supercells with with a marginal wind and tornado risk develop over southeast MO and grow upscale into clusters and bows as they move east, with primarily a damaging wind risk. The bearish case is that non- severe clusters of storms develop tonight, with a marginal risk of localized heavy rain. By Tuesday morning, the surface cold front will begin to move through the region, bringing a brief return of dry weather. A few thunderstorms may develop ahead of the front in the mid to late morning hours over the EVV Tri-State southward into the KY Pennyrile. Cannot rule of these storms becoming strong to severe before exiting the forecast area, but the better severe thunderstorm environment looks to be across southern IN and central into southern KY. Wednesday through Sunday night...Forecast confidence remains low for the extended part of the forecast. While Wednesday looks to be the driest day of the next several, the region will still be under the influence of broad synoptic troughing. This will bring a modest chance of showers during a good part of the day. Cloud cover will be fairly plentiful as well. The big question mark remains how will the remnants of future Tropical System Helen impact the region after making landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast sometime late Thursday. The remnant surface low and tropical moisture may interact with and eventually be drawn westward into the Lower Ohio Valley by the deep trough over the Midwest and Mid- South. If this occurs, rain chances will be plentiful as the disturbance will be very slow to exit the region. The NBM initialization brings the heaviest rains to the region Thursday night through Friday night, with rain chances slowly diminishing over the weekend. Given the very moist environment, heavy rainfall is possible. The latest QPF from WPC shows a broad brush of 1.5-3.0" over the region during this time. The heaviest rainfall totals at this time look to be over southeast MO, and the lightest amounts are across the Wabash River Valley. There are a lot of moving parts to this forecast, and any change in that may significantly affect the forecast. Check back frequently for updates over the next 24-48 hours. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 534 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A quasi-stationary boundary lays across the southern FA at this writing, just south of the terminals. Expect continued overrunning of this boundary with scattered showers/storms offering potential for restricted CIGS/VSBYS thru the night into tmrw morning. A cold front then makes passage, and ultimately clears the pcpn chances out, with lingering MVFR to low VFR bases thru the bulk of the forecast planning hours. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 411 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-242115- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-White- Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin- Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick- Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston- Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster- Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO- Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard- Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 411 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 /511 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Periods of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast this evening through the overnight hours. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. Locally heavy rain will be possible as well. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly across the Evansville Tri-State area southward into the Kentucky Pennyrile. An isolated strong gusty thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Areas of moderate to heavy rain are forecast Thursday and Friday. Some minor or nuisance flooding issues are possible, especially in low-lying or poorly-drained areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. DWS
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 94 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:41 UTC.
1 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple social media posts and comments reported flash flooding in and around West Frankfort. Radar and rain gauge reports suggest approximately 2 inches of rain in under 90 minutes as two lines of heavy rain merged.
Photos on social media showed standing water on roads near the Field of Dreams Banquet Facility.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1215326, 1215327.