Heavy rain along the Green River basin from the May 23rd storms resulted in water levels rising at Paradise into minor flood on the 25th, while additional heavy rain from the May 26th storms caused a further rise to several feet above moderate flood stage at Paradise and a rise into minor flood at Calhoun. Flooding continued into the start of June.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Heavy rain along the Green River basin from the May 23rd storms resulted in water levels rising at Paradise into minor flood on the 25th, while additional heavy rain from the May 26th storms caused a further rise to several feet above moderate flood stage at Paradise and a rise into minor flood at Calhoun. Flooding continued into the start of June.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 5:45 PM CST, 0 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
645 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunday looks like a very volatile day with 2 main rounds of
severe weather potential. The range of possibilities covers
everything from the pre-dawn period through the evening. High
end threats for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will
all be possible.
- In addition to the all modes severe weather potential,
intense heavy rainfall may produce localized flood
issues...especially for locations that recently received such.
We've issued a Flood Watch for the entire region from tonight
through Sunday night to account for this potential.
- A much needed respite from the active weather pattern is in
store for the bulk of next week thereafter, as we return to
drier weather and near seasonal temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024
Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024
We expect 2 primary rounds of potential severe storms. The first
round will begin after midnight tonight...probably closer to
morning, as a short wave lobe of energy leads storm genesis from
IA/IL/MO with the convective threat extending southward into our
CWA. Bulk shear here increases from around 25 kts at 06z to nearly
double that by 12z. Lapse rates are increasing from about 6C to
around 7C during that time frame, for the area of concern. Lower 3KM
helicity increases from about 150 to 250 m2/s2 during this time.
MUCapes grow from about 1500 Joules to nearly double that by mid
morning, when we lose the 200-300 Joules of CIN. If/as this line of
convection moves east, an enhanced risk of strong- severe damaging
winds may materialize tmrw morning. Soundings and shear vectors
suggest bowing elements of the line may also lend toward a surging
and thus supercell/large hail threat as well, if/where this occurs.
Despite this morning round's perhaps stabilizing effect, the models
insist we soup up again and quickly so during the afternoon. MUCapes
reach/exceed 4000 Joules/KG while lapse rates hike upwards to 8C.
CIN is effectively gone and there is now 300 m2/s2 of helicity in
the lower 3 KM to work with. If there are any boundaries layed out
from the morning that cells might coalesce upon, discrete supercells
would be possible with the attendant damaging winds/large hail
threats. It's also possible this does not materialize, and we await
the incoming (main) line of storms later Sunday afternoon and
evening. This comes to fruition with all our parameters at their
peak, so our entire region has been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk
with hacking for all severe modes at their high end potential.
Other hazards include the potential for localized flooding as
any/all storms will operate in a soupy/high PW environ and be
capable of locally heavy downpours. Given our recent receipt of
heavy rains causing localized flood issues for at least a few
of our municipalities, we'll go ahead and enter Watch mode with
a good portion of our neighbors as any repeat or intense heavy
rains may cause flooding, esp in these more sensitive/recently
saturated locations.
While ongoing storms may continue their life, in general, the
system departs and activity wanes by or certainly after midnight
Sunday night. Maybe there is some lingering early Monday
morning pop in our east, but after that, we go dry and seasonal
for the bulk of the remainder of the week (some small pops
return again by week's end).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024
Light winds and FEW-SCT clouds around 3500ft will leave VFR
conditions through the evening. Before sunrise, a line of storms
move in from the WSW, sweeping across the Quad State through
mid-morning with strong to severe weather possible. The
afternoon will see spottier showers and storms with severe
weather possible. A second organized line approaches from the
northwest towards the end of the TAF period. Winds will be
southerly and breezy during the day. Cigs drop to around 3000 ft
following initial storms though at least partial clearing is
likely in the afternoon. Vsby drops will accompany thunderstorms
and heavy rain.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Monday morning for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Monday morning for
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Sunday through Monday
morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Monday morning for
KYZ001>022.
&&
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...ATLHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 246 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-261015- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 246 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 /346 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Incoming thunderstorms late tonight might pack strong to severe potential, with all severe weather hazards in play. A Flood Watch is in effect beginning at midnight tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday A major severe weather outbreak is possible Sunday. A morning round of storms may include strong to severe storms. The atmosphere will be recharging in the afternoon, and there could be some storms that fire up to severe levels then, before more widespread storms develop Sunday evening. This is a high end enhanced severe storm risk with damaging winds, large hail, and strong and long-lived tornadoes all possible. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are also possible, especially in areas that see repeat rains. A Flood Watch is in effect through Sunday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should prepare for activation Sunday.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
338 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 WSW Hanson 37.40N 87.52W
05/25/2024 Hopkins KY Emergency Mngr
Numerous trees down near Otter Lake on Otter
Lake Loop, Hummingbird Cove, and Falcon
Creek Way with one tree falling through a
home.
&&
ATLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Floodwaters rose to over 3 feet above moderate flood stage at Paradise. Flooding of woods and farmland occurred, with impacts to rural roads. Flooding continued into the start of June.
Minor flooding of low-lying agricultural lands occurred. Flooding continued into the start of June.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1181543, 1181556.