Just a day after a line of storms brings isolated damage to portions of eastern Kentucky, the cold front and low pressure system from which this line originated began to move across the state of Kentucky. WPC analyzed the cold front dissolving as it moved into eastern Kentucky with another one developing just to the west, making it's pass into western KY during the afternoon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Just a day after a line of storms brings isolated damage to portions of eastern Kentucky, the cold front and low pressure system from which this line originated began to move across the state of Kentucky. WPC analyzed the cold front dissolving as it moved into eastern Kentucky with another one developing just to the west, making it's pass into western KY during the afternoon. A line of storms developed along the first frontal boundary, and continued on into eastern Kentucky during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Many of these storms were strong to severe as they moved through the state. Eastern Kentucky was no exception, despite the weakening boundary, with thunderstorm wind reports received from across the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 6:25 AM EST, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 725 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening could produce locally heavy rainfall and strong to damaging wind gusts. - Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold front over the weekend. - Warmer and more humid conditions will make a noticeable comeback on Monday and continue into next week, along with a potential for more thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 700 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 No significant changes to the forecast - just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 445 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 08Z sfc analysis shows low pressure dropping into the northern Ohio Valley early this morning dragging a cold front into the region as it arrives. Ahead of this, skies are mostly clear over this part of the state allowing for a very small ridge to valley temperature split along with areas of valley fog. Currently, readings are quite warm running in the low to mid 70s across eastern Kentucky - a few degrees cooler in the sheltered valleys than the ridges. Meanwhile, amid light to calm winds, dewpoints are also high - in the low to mid 70s - creating a floor to the potential temperature drop through dawn. A few showers are noted trying to develop to the west and south of the Cumberland Valley which the CAMs suggest could slip in the southwest around dawn. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a shortwave trough moving southeast from the Upper Midwest and entering the northern Ohio Valley today into tonight. This brings substantive height falls and a brush-by of mid level energy to eastern Kentucky through 12Z Saturday. Thereafter, the pattern loosens a bit through Saturday evening with broad southwest flow at mid levels and weak energy streaming past the state. The model spread through the short term is relatively small so the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids through Saturday afternoon with little deviation needed aside from the incorporation of the latest CAMs details for the PoPs today and tonight. Sensible weather features another hot and humid day with heat indices in a few places reaching near 100 degrees. The heat will fuel, and be mitigated in a few places, by scattered to numerous showers and storms developing through mid afternoon. The latest CAMs suggest that a convective line will move southeast into the the area towards noon with a potential for organized convection with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. Decent instability will sustain these storms through the afternoon with CAPE progged to be over 2000 J/Kg while high PWs - over 2 inches - will make heavy rain a threat with these storms and a potential for localized flooding will exist with any repeated cell training. The storm threat will diminish after dark but remain a concern well into the night. The synoptic cold front settles through the bulk of the area late tonight, but may not quite clear the JKL CWA through the day, Saturday. This will keep a small chance for a shower in the forecast along the border with Virginia to start the weekend. The front should also bring in some drier air and make for a less oppressive day, with respect to the heat and humidity, than we face today. The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of tweaking the temperatures in order to better reflect some very limited terrain details early this morning. PoPs were adjusted more significantly today into tonight per the latest guidance from the CAMS. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Surface high pressure will continue to nudge into the region for the start of the forecast period. With surface high pressure in place, temperatures will be back on the rise with highs climbing into the upper-80s to low-90s for Sunday. Surface high pressure will nudge off to the east on Monday with enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching shortwave. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to be warmer as highs are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s, coupled with warm, moist southwesterly flow, heat indices will be approaching 100 degrees to over 100 in isolated locations. Models have come into better agreement with a positively tilted trough approaching the area. At the surface, a surface low will be tracking through the Upper Great Lakes. Along and ahead of the front, increasing showers and thunderstorms are likely. As the low tracks through the Great Lakes, the front will dive southeast through the CWA. Forecast soundings, sampled ahead of the front show a marginally severe atmosphere. Can't rule out a severe storm or two but overall, pre-FROPA environment appears to be a poor supportive environment for severe storms. Models continue to remain in very good agreement post-frontal Wednesday as deterministic runs keep PoP chances through the end of the forecast period and even possibly bring the remnants of Hurricane Beryl to the forecast area for the end of the forecast period. Overall, the period will highlighted with periods of showers and thunderstorms that'll bring much needed rain to the area. Also, temperatures will return to more seasonal ranges as daytime highs in the mid-80s to low-90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper-50s to upper-60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Just a scant chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm through mid morning. Any valley fog will clear out shortly with no impact on the terminals. Look for a lower CIG (but still likely VFR) to develop by late morning for most of eastern Kentucky with some convection likely impacting each of the TAF sites. For now have tried to time the window of highest impact via tempos. Winds will average 10 kts or less, outside of any convection, generally from the south to southwest. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GREIF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 350 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-060800- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- 350 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today with a slight chance tonight. A few of the storms could be strong with heavy rains and gusty winds the main threats. Heat indices will likely peak around 100 degrees in a few locations this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a possibility of thunderstorms, at times, from Monday through Thursday. Heat indices may peak around 100 degrees in a few locations Monday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. GREIF/VORST
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1013 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
KYZ079-083-051500-
Wayne KY-Pulaski KY-
1013 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WAYNE AND PULASKI
COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 AM EDT...
At 1012 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Cains Store to near
Faubush to near Monticello. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Monticello, Science Hill, Burnside, Cains Store, Stab,
Sloans Valley, Bobtown, Nancy, Parnell, Pointer, Bandy, Bronston,
Woodstock, Mount Victory, Dabney, Valley Oak, Pulaski County Park,
Somerset Pulaski Airport, and Kidder.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Kentucky Highway 80 in Pulaski County between mile markers 17 and
33.
Louis B. Nunn Parkway
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3696 8495 3696 8492 3695 8490 3700 8484
3705 8491 3712 8490 3736 8456 3733 8451
3727 8443 3697 8435 3683 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1412Z 239DEG 26KT 3720 8497 3708 8487 3685 8481
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1052 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
KYZ079-080-083>085-051530-
McCreary KY-Whitley KY-Wayne KY-Laurel KY-Pulaski KY-
1052 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN WAYNE...SOUTHWESTERN
LAUREL...SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...CENTRAL MCCREARY AND NORTHWESTERN
WHITLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 AM EDT...
At 1052 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Burnside to near Alpine to Denney to
Slavens. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Whitley City, Burnside, Parmleysville, Slavens, Sloans Valley,
Parkers Lake, Barrier, Cumberland Falls S.P., Gregory, Bronston,
Clio, Huxley, Mount Victory, Deering, Ritner, Bunch, Krupp, Hightop,
Denney, and Kidder.
THIS INCLUDES Kentucky Highway 80 in Laurel County between mile
markers 1 and 4.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3718 8422 3700 8412 3698 8417 3676 8419
3667 8478 3683 8477 3688 8476 3697 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1452Z 241DEG 23KT 3701 8456 3689 8454 3683 8467 3676
8466
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1116 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
KYZ079-080-084-085-051545-
McCreary KY-Whitley KY-Laurel KY-Pulaski KY-
1116 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAUREL...
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...CENTRAL MCCREARY AND NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EDT...
At 1116 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Greenwood, or 10 miles north of Whitley City, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Honeybee, Cumberland Falls S.P., and Huxley around 1120 AM EDT.
Bark Camp and Youngs Creek around 1125 AM EDT.
Baldrock around 1130 AM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Liberty.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3681 8459 3682 8458 3684 8459 3685 8457
3685 8459 3687 8458 3689 8459 3689 8460
3691 8461 3702 8423 3674 8419 3671 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 251DEG 22KT 3688 8445
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
GEERTSONThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:25 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large limb was blown down onto US-25 South, blocking the roadway.
A tree was blown down onto Little Arthur Ridge Road near East Bernstadt.
A tree was reported down in the Robinson Creek community near Burning Springs in northern Clay County.
Reports of trees down in the Polly Hollow area of Middlesboro, including one tree on fire according to social media.
A tree was downed on Riley Branch blocking the roadway near the community of Clayhole.
A social media report told of utility poles broken and trees down on Lick Branch Road in the Noctor community.
A tree was downed across Stonecoal Road (KY-777). Power outages were reported in the area. The exact location of the downed trees and powerlines along the road was not reported.
A report was made of a tree that had fallen onto power lines at Right Fork Penhook Branch Road in the Harold/Boldman area.
A tree was downed onto Indian Creek Road near the intersection with Anderson Fork.
Trees were downed in the Pinsonfork community.
Trees were downed on KY-194 at Dry Branch, northeast of Pikeville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1203507, 1203509, 1204514, 1204517, 1204523, 1204599, 1204605, 1204612, 1204614, 1204624, 1204618.