Tornado in North Dakota, July 5 to 8, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30 to 60%) are again
  expected today across western and central North Dakota. This
  activity will be of the "hit or miss" variety, with localized
  areas possibly seeing heavy rainfall again.

- Daily chances (30 to 60%) for showers and thunderstorms
  continue through the weekend.

- A gradual warming and drying trend is expected for next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Fair weather cumulus continues to develop as we warm early this
afternoon. We are still expecting some showers and storms this
afternoon, but coverage will be a bit more sparse than
yesterday. CAMs suggest that denser coverage may come this
evening as the next subtle wave moves in. Modest ridging during
the afternoon will likely keep most of the early convection
isolated.

UPDATE
Issued at 923 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in
the latest observations to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The forecast for this morning remains on track. Updated POPs and
sky cover based on latest imagery and trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Currently, S/WV trough/mid level low continues to slowly push
off to the east, now over the Western Great Lakes region. Weak
north/northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains, ahead of a
S/WV mid level ridge to our northwest. Within the flow, a
subtle mid level impulse is moving south/southeast across my
eastern counties, contributing to maintaining elevated cloud
cover and resulting in some radar returns. Elsewhere, mostly
clear conditions along and west of Highway 83, with some low
clouds trying to develop into the Turtle Mountain region.

For today, active flow aloft continues, with the weak S/WV
ridge moving southeast across the region, followed by a well
defined S/WV impulse developing into eastern Montana during the
day. Decent instability will be present today though with more
subtle forcing compared to yesterday, but again expect to see
scattered shower and thunderstorm development as we warm. Shear
remain minimal so the threat for severe is very low if anything.
With similar PWATs and weak flow aloft, will have to monitor for
heavy rainfall potential again with slow moving convection and
possible training of storms. Showers and isolated storms will
continue into tonight as the aforementioned wave develops
slowly southeast into the Dakotas.

The remainder of the weekend will be similar to today, with
multiple embedded waves moving across the region within a
broader quasi-stationary trough aloft.

Strong upper level ridging over the western CONUS will slowly
nudge eastward through next week, but may be delayed a bit
compared to earlier NBM and ensemble blends. We remain in a
north/northwest flow pattern both Monday and Tuesday, and any
wave within the flow aloft could fire off diurnally driven
convection either day. NBM came in dry, and will not deviate
from this, just wanted to mention this possibility as we won't
start to lose our moisture until the ridge gets closer.
Temperatures are still favored to slowly warm through next week,
finally approaching seasonal normal values (low/mid 80s) by the
middle of the week. Once the ridge moves into the Rockies mid to
late next week, temperatures are favored to be above normal and
the weather will be mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected at all sites through the
period. However, we will see some isolated to scattered showers
and storms develop later this afternoon and into the evening.
These will be very hit and miss so we only included vicinity
mention for KXWA, KDIK, and KBIS for now. There is less
confidence in precip coverage farther east and north. If a
stronger storm can move directly overhead, there may be brief
MVFR visibilities and gusty/erratic winds. Finally, ceilings
over KMOT currently are right on the border of VFR/MVFR
categories but these cloud bases should lift over the next hour
or two with more daytime heating.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...ZH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-061745-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 /1139 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. While
severe weather is not expected, some storms may produce locally
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.