A strong upper level low pressure system was in place across the Great Lakes region heading into the morning hours of Saturday, August 17. From this a cold front draped southwestward, moving towards the state throughout the day.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A strong upper level low pressure system was in place across the Great Lakes region heading into the morning hours of Saturday, August 17. From this a cold front draped southwestward, moving towards the state throughout the day. By the time it reached western Kentucky during the afternoon hours. the warm/unstable airmass ahead of the boundary had already spawned showers and thunderstorms. A line of storms formed ahead of the front and continued to outpace the frontal passage eastward. By the time it reached eastern Kentucky, multiple severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for these strong storms. Throughout the afternoon and evening hours, widespread wind damage occurred in numerous counties. Multiple locations also saw damaging hail. While the main line of storms fizzled out during the evening hours in the far east, additional discrete thunderstorms continued ahead and all the frontal boundary into the overnight for central and eastern Kentucky.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 12:50 PM EST, 56 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 150 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are expected to impact the area today. Damaging wind gusts appears to be the greatest hazardous weather threat and would most likely be associated with more organized storms...i.e. line segments and storm clusters. - Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday through Wednesday behind a cold front passage late Saturday night. - Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Sunday and Monday, especially in the afternoon and early evening, with a drying trend for Tuesday into Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1244 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024 We are seeing a few storms develop mainly north of the I-64 corridor this afternoon. You can see a well defined either pre- frontal trough or old outflow boundary on satellite this afternoon stretching from northeast Kentucky into parts of southcentral Kentucky and you can see associated cumulus field become more and more agitated with time. The convective development so far has been attached to this notable boundary and would expect this to be the focus for convection going through the afternoon. The main threat with stronger storms will be damaging wind gusts given the high DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg or greater in portions of eastern Kentucky based on the SPC mesoanalysis data. No notable changes to the latest SPC outlook and seems reasonable given the overall trends seen in the CAMs and various guidance. No big changes needed to the short term, but did make some minor adjustments to PoP to better match the latest trends. UPDATE Issued at 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024 We are seeing mix of sun and clouds this morning, with some lingering low clouds in parts of the area. Given this adjusted sky grids toward the CONSMOS guidance which seemed to be handling this idea the best. Outside this did lean towards the CONsShort for PoPs given it had the better trend this morning so far, but the short term guidance has been struggling to have any run-to-run consistency, with regards to convective trends this afternoon and evening. Overall no big changes in 8AM SPC outlook and seems reasonable given little has changed trend wise. Right now, it looks like window for severe weather seems to be between 2 PM and 9 PM local time, but will see how this trends through the day and with next SPC update. Outside this overall minor changes to the rest of the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 659 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024 Area webcams and a couple incoming COOP reports indicate that visibilities are improving at the surface, and much of the fog appears to be lifting across the area. Consequently allowed the special weather statement to expire and this early morning update is mainly to bring forecast products in agreement with current trends. Otherwise, grids were in good shape. No other changes to the forecast package at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 448 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024 Aloft, low over the Great Lakes Region will spin its way from Lake Superior to Lake Erie/Ontario during the short term. Two short wave disturbances will be rotating around the southern periphery of the trough early in the period as the low slides southeastward. The first is expected to pass through the Commonwealth very early in the period, while the second of the two short waves drops southeast into the Ohio Valley later this evening. Recent model guidance has been somewhat inconsistent with the evolution of sensible weather, putting into question the exact amount and timing of convection each wave will generate across the area. Overall, the bulk of guidance suggests at least two general rounds of precipitation today. Earlier solutions had convection firing across eastern Kentucky during the morning, but trends delay the start of convection until mid-day or just after. The second round has been more consistent and transits our forecast area this evening. Thinking is today's rainfall may be broken up in several rounds, similar to Friday, where segments of organized convection transit different portions of the area at various times through the afternoon and evening. Based on some of the latest CAM solutions, the best bulk shear is found across our southern zones Saturday, but is marginal at 30-35 kts. Better environmental shear (35-45 kts) develops by late afternoon into this evening. The best instability is realized during the daylight hours with heating, with MLCAPE climbing to 1500-2500 J/kg...with greater CAPE centered more across our southwestern zones. Wind fields aloft could be more favorable with H500 and H850 winds averaging less than 35 kts over eastern Kentucky. In addition, the best diffluent flow aloft is earlier in the day. Low level lapse rates appear strong (7-8C/km+), but mid level lapse rates are relatively weak (~ 5C/kg). Overall have definitely seen more impressive storm environments. But SPC does have the area within a marginal to slight risk today. Consequently, strong storms could be possible, and a few storms producing severe weather can not be ruled out. If analysis of the storm environment is accurate, damaging wind gusts would be the greatest hazardous weather threat and would most likely be associated with more organized storms...i.e. line segments and storm clusters. Without steeper lapse rates aloft and other more favorable storm environmental parameters, feel the hail threat will be minimal. A third short wave rounds the bottom of the trough by Sunday. Forecast soundings show ample instability across the area with MLCAPES climbing to between 1000-1500 J/kg during peak heating of the afternoon. However, bulk shear is around 15 kts or less, which is not favorable for organized convection. Interestingly, the NBM blend continues to advertise a consistently high 80-90% PoP for Sunday; quite high considering the nature of convection will be strongly driven by diurnal heating...instability showers and thunderstorms. Thus while activity will be scattered, effectively there is high probability most of the forecast area will measure. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 448 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024 After one last day of active weather on Monday, the upper level low responsible for this weekend's convection will open up into broader troughing and eject up into New England next week. In its wake, forecast guidance places Eastern Kentucky in a regime of generally weak meridional flow aloft. At the surface, the model suite collectively suggests that a high pressure will push into the Great Lakes region. Together, these features reinforce the idea that next week's weather will be both cooler and drier than what we have witnessed here as of late. As hinted at above, rain chances remain in the forecast for Monday, albeit at slightly lower values than the previous days. With the passage of Sunday's frontal boundary, the best surface- level support for organized convection will be removed far from the forecast area. Thermodynamic support will also be fairly meager, with afternoon highs only in the mid to upper 70s. However, favorable PVA on the backside of the troughing aloft will support scattered shower activity into the afternoon hours. The greatest PoPs will be in our eastern tier counties, where northwesterly flow throughout the column may locally enhance chances on the windward side of higher terrain via orographic lifting processes. Rain chances dwindle down during the evening and overnight hours on Monday as dry air advection begins to dominate and skies correspondingly clear. Overnight lows on Monday will be in the low to mid 50s, and these cooler temperatures foreshadow the fall-like conditions in the forecast for the much of the work week. Under mostly clear skies and a modified continental polar airmass, temperatures will be below average values on Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, with efficient diurnal mixing processes reducing the dewpoint and thus the relative humidity. Overnight, expect pretty potent ridge/valley thermal splits, with some of the deepest valleys potentially dropping into the upper 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Elsewhere, expect MinTs in the 50-55 range. While it will feel great outside for much of next week, this little taste of fall will not last forever. The surface high responsible for this will shift east on Thursday, bringing about a shift to southerly winds by Friday. Temperatures respond by increasing a little each day, and highs will return to near climatological norms (mid to upper 80s) on Friday. As the high shifts east, ridge/valley splits will be favored in the more eastern locations for Thursday night and perhaps additional nights. PoPs will remain below 10 percent through the rest of the period though. Thus, with the exception of Monday, the weather in this particular long term forecast package will be pleasant. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024 We are seeing a mix of VFR and MVFR skies to start the period this afternoon. The MVFR CIGs are variable given the in association with the cumulus bases developing this afternoon. This will be the story through the afternoon and evening as convection continues to develop. There is a pronounced boundary noted on satellite this afternoon and this so far has been the focus for convection that has at times resulted in a few strong storms. These have mostly been confined to the I-64 corridor so far, but will drift southward through the TAF period. However, it should be noted that some of the storms have exhibited left-moving motions to the northeast when storms have split. Therefore, storm motions right now will either be southeast or northeast depending on if they happen to split. Predominately these will more in the way of eastward and southeastward storm motions. Tonight there will be the potential for lower CIGs and possibly Vis as we move toward the overnight and early morning hours Sunday. There is some uncertainty on this as some model guidance suggest more convection would be possible later tonight. The winds will remain fairly light and variable through much of the period, but some gustier winds would be expected with thunderstorms and perhaps some 15 knot gust during peak mixing this afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...DJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 1038 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-181445- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- 1038 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Strong to severe storms are expected to impact the area today. A few of these storms may produce damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday and Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Marcus/JP/DJ
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1201 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
KYZ044-171630-
Fleming KY-
1201 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FLEMING COUNTY
THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...
At 1201 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lewisburg, or 7 miles north of Flemingsburg, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Flemingsburg, Wallingford, Foxport, Mount Carmel, and Flemingsburg
Junction.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3852 8363 3850 8362 3849 8359 3844 8357
3844 8358 3841 8352 3840 8348 3838 8345
3837 8346 3836 8346 3836 8349 3846 8385
3852 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 1601Z 282DEG 30KT 3853 8373
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1254 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
KYZ044-050-051-171730-
Montgomery KY-Bath KY-Fleming KY-
1254 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...
NORTHWESTERN BATH AND CENTRAL FLEMING COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...
At 1253 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sideview, or 9 miles northwest of Mount Sterling, moving east at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Owingsville, Marshall, Sharpsburg, Judy, Reynoldsville, Wyoming,
Sideview, Peasticks, Craigs, Flat Creek, Tilton, Odessa, Bourbon
Furnace, Pebble, Slate Valley, Sherburne, Bethel, Stoops, and Oakley.
THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers
116 and 126.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3812 8365 3808 8406 3811 8408 3813 8407
3817 8399 3819 8398 3832 8384 3832 8385
3834 8384 3837 8375
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 252DEG 25KT 3816 8406
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
KYZ044-050>052-171800-
Rowan KY-Montgomery KY-Bath KY-Fleming KY-
127 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...
NORTHWESTERN BATH...FLEMING AND NORTH CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH
200 PM EDT...
At 126 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sherburne, or 9 miles south of Flemingsburg, moving northeast at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Flemingsburg, Owingsville, Sharpsburg, Pecks Ridge, Reynoldsville,
Wyoming, Flat Creek, Odessa, Pebble, Slate Valley, Muses Mills,
Wallingford, Bethel, Foxport, Stoops, Oakley, Mount Carmel, Tilton,
Ringos Mills, and Hillsboro.
THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers
112 and 113.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3848 8358 3843 8358 3840 8348 3838 8345
3839 8342 3833 8337 3808 8391 3818 8399
3832 8384 3836 8388 3835 8390 3837 8390
3836 8391 3837 8391 3852 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 238DEG 26KT 3830 8378
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
KYZ050>052-059-060-171900-
Rowan KY-Montgomery KY-Menifee KY-Bath KY-Powell KY-
230 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL POWELL...
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN BATH...NORTHERN MENIFEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 230 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Camargo, or near Mount Sterling, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Frenchburg, Marshall, Jeffersonville,
Camargo, Salt Lick, Clay Lick, Means, Ramey, Levee, Preston,
Cornwell, Peasticks, Rothwell, Walkers Crossing, Olympia Springs,
Cedar Groves, Moore's Ferry, and Coons Station.
THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers
109 and 132.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3795 8348 3789 8392 3807 8399 3819 8365
3817 8364 3819 8363 3821 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 253DEG 22KT 3801 8387
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DJThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:46 UTC.
26 thunderstorm wind, 4 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
NWS Employee observed 1 inch hail at their house, just north of Jeffersonville and west of the community of Hope.
A tree was blown down on KY-557 near Sandy Hook. The exact location on this road was not given.
Multiple trees were blown down on Prater Road near the Mount Carmel community.
A tree was blown down in the 900 block of Sunset Road in Hillsboro.
A tree was blown down at the Banger Boat Ramp along Cave Run Lake, 7 miles south of Clearfield.
A tree was blown down east of Elliottville near the the Elliott County line. Exact location/road were not given.
A tree was blown down on Bangor Boat Dock Road along Cave Run Lake.
A tree was blown down and onto a structure in Stanton. Exact details, including location in Stanton, were not given.
A tree was downed along Darrel Randall Road just south of Stanton.
A tree was blown down on Fletcher Cliff Road, off of Tar Ridge Rod south of Flemingsburg. Exact location along the road was not given.
A tree was blown down and onto a powerline on Camp Judy Lane, north of Wellington.
A tree was blown down and across Hwy-746 in Wellington. The exact location along Hwy-746 was not given.
A tree was reported down along Campton Road near the community of Rosslyn, however the exact location was not given.
A tree was downed along Brandy Lane, just SW of the community of Rosslyn.
Multiple trees were downed along Chimney Top Road in the Red River Gorge. Exactly locations along the road were not given.
Tree down on a vehicle along Hwy-715 somewhere between Zachariah and Pine Ridge, exact location not given.
A delayed social media post reported a downed large tree branches at 3135 Tipton Ridge Road, near the community of Crystal.
Elliott County Dispatch received 21 reports of trees down from around the county, and two reports of downed power lines. Most of the trees were blown down along Brown Ridge Road, north of Sandy Hook, as well as KY-32, south of Sandy Hook.
A large healthy tree was downed onto Stamper Branch Road, just northwest of Hazel Green.
A tree was reported down at the 6900 block of State Hwy 404, near the community of David.
A tree was felled near 1090 Abbott Creek Road, just NW of Prestonsburg.
A tree was downed onto a power line around 2950 Arkansas Creek Road, just southeast of the town of Martin.
A telephone pole was downed by winds along Cliff Road in Prestonsburg. The exact location along Cliff Road was not given.
A tree was downed near mile marker 1 of KY-3680, in the Drift community.
A tree was blown down on KY-30 East, about 1 mile east of Airport Road.
A tree was downed onto Hwy-122 in the Hi Hat community.
A power line was reported to be hanging across Caleb Fork Road, in the community of Weeksbury, due to a downed tree. The exact location along Caleb Fork Road was not given.
A social media reported showed pictures of hail up to half dollar size. The hail fell off of US-421 at Elmer Lane, between the communities of Mozelle and Helton (closer to Mozelle).
A public report was received on Twitter with a picture of quarter sized hail along Shell Hallow Road, east of Harlan.
Half dollar sized hail was reported via social media with pictures included. The event occurred at a residence on Springs Road, located to the southwest of Somerset - not far from Lake Cumberland.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1211836, 1211841, 1211847, 1211850, 1212477, 1211851, 1211852, 1211853, 1211854, 1211859, 1211864, 1211866, 1211874, 1211880, 1211884, 1211886, 1211893, 1211897, 1211903, 1211913, 1211923, 1211927, 1211962, 1211977, 1211983, 1212409, 1212413, 1212417, 1212451, 1212475.