Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, August 17, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
339 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Early morning convection across northern GA should continue for the
next few hours. Lightning has diminished and the coverage of storms
should also continue to decrease.

Weak surface trough/old surface front is located across central
portions of the state this morning. The boundary is very diffuse and
difficult to discern in the surface pattern. There is also an
outflow boundary across the southern quarter of the CWA from
convection earlier tonight. Do think one of these boundaries (if not
both) will be the focus for scattered afternoon convection today.
Surface instability and moisture remain plentiful, but shear and
lapse rates remain unfavorable. A few strong storms will be possible
this afternoon/evening with an isolated severe thunderstorm possible.

A secondary frontal boundary is located across the Mid Mississippi
River Valley. This secondary boundary will slowly slip south and
east through tomorrow. This boundary and/or the old front across the
southern CWA will be the primary initiators for any convection on
Sunday. A drier airmass is expected behind the Sunday front. There
will be a little bit more shear around tomorrow along with more
favorable lapse rates. The potential for stronger storms and severe
storms will be slightly higher than for today.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

At a glance:

    - Mostly dry

    - Cooler mornings through the week

Behind the frontal passage on Monday, the key player in our sensible
weather through late week will be a constant stream of cooler, drier
air at the mid-levels -- fed by northwesterly flow on the lee side
of high amplitude ridging across the Desert Southwest. On top of
that, the southern fringes of a surface high centered over the Great
Lakes look to extend southward to the Gulf coast, locking into place
a relatively benign airmass. Backward trajectories show that the
aforementioned airmass settling across Georgia and much of the
Southeast originates from across central/eastern Canada. As a
result, and most excitingly, expect crisp mornings -- especially
across north Georgia -- through the long term, with lows each night
forecast to drop into the upper 50s to 60s. Afternoon highs will
similarly fall on the cooler side, though only marginally so, in the
mid-80s to lower-90s each day.

Rain chances will be minimal to negligible through Wednesday. From
then on, our surface high begins to retrograde northward, and a
weakness in mid-level flow develops in response to ridging shifting
slightly eastward aloft. With dry, northwesterly flow weakening, low
end chances for showers and thunderstorms will reintroduce
themselves across primarily south central Georgia to round off
the work week -- rainfall totals are likely to be sub-0.25" where
storms do form.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Isold/sct shra should remain north of ATL overnight. Afternoon
convection is again possible, mainly along the I-20 corridor. The
bulk of the storms may be just to the south of ATL, but will keep
the prob30 in for the afternoon. Winds will remain on the west
side through the period. Some sct IFR possible early Sunday
morning.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med-high confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          93  71  92  68 /  30  20  30   0
Atlanta         92  73  92  69 /  40  20  30  10
Blairsville     86  66  83  61 /  20  30  30   0
Cartersville    92  70  90  67 /  30  20  30   0
Columbus        94  74  96  72 /  40  30  30  20
Gainesville     91  71  89  68 /  20  20  30   0
Macon           92  72  94  69 /  40  30  30  20
Rome            90  71  89  67 /  30  20  30   0
Peachtree City  93  71  93  67 /  40  30  30  10
Vidalia         92  73  95  72 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
358 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-180800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
358 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening across portions of north and central Georgia. Some
storms may become strong to severe and capable of producing
isolated damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rainfall. A Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across
a majority of the state. Some storms may become strong to severe,
especially south of Interstate 20, and capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail in addition to
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. A Slight (level 2
out of 5) risk is in effect for portions of central and south
central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.