A rapidly developing surface low pressure developed out of the southeast Colorado and Panhandles area, lifting into central Kansas on Monday December 30th. Numerous non thunderstorm wind gusts were measured on area mesonet stations in the 58 to 66 mph range.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
A rapidly developing surface low pressure developed out of the southeast Colorado and Panhandles area, lifting into central Kansas on Monday December 30th. Numerous non thunderstorm wind gusts were measured on area mesonet stations in the 58 to 66 mph range. A traffic light was downed by high winds in Dodge City. A High Wind Warning was issued at 10:46 am CDT for areas generally west of U,S. Highway 283.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 30, 5:53 AM CST, 4 hours 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 553 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High northwest winds are expected today, with gusts up to 55 mph. - Cooler weather is forecast starting Monday night and persisting through Friday. - Colder than average daytime temperatures and cloudy weather are predicted for Saturday and Sunday, along with chances for rain, freezing drizzle, freezing rain and snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 A fast moving upper level disturbance will traverse the plains today and tonight. Cold advection will develop today; but deep mixing along with a downslope wind component will allow temperatures to reach into the mid 50s to lower 60s by early afternoon before holding steady or slowly falling. With the intense vertical mixing, stronger winds will be able to make it to the surface, with gusts 50-55 mph starting around 10 am. A few places could reach near 60 mph. High winds will persist this evening in central Kansas as northwesterly 850mb winds are expected to be around 50 kts until midnight at Hays. Diurnal cooling will have taken place by this time (8-11 pm) and this may keep winds in the 40-50 mph range as opposed to 50-60 mph. A high wind warning may be needed; but confidence is not high enough at this point. The various ensembles and high resolution models indicate 20-30% chances for 55 mph gusts for much of central and southwest Kansas. Whether we reach the threshold for high wind warning (58 mph) is debatable. But regardless, its going to be very windy and impacts are likely. Have tentatively opted to forego a high wind warning and message the high winds in social media and DSS products. Given how dry it has been for the past several weeks, areas of blowing dust are possible. In the wake of the associated cold front, temperatures close to seasonal averages can be expected Monday night through Friday, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s and lows in the teens and 20s. Another cold front will prolong the cool spell Thursday and Friday. A strong upper level trough is expected to come onshore along the west coast Friday and then approach the plains Saturday into early Sunday. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of arctic high pressure over Canada will move through Kansas Friday night. The ensemble means of the ENS, GEPS and GEFS are coming into better agreement on a more robust upper level trough, albeit a fast moving open wave. However, cold air in place at lower levels will serve as a source of lift as mid level warm advection develops. These shallow arctic surges are normally stronger than expected and the coldest solution is usually the best for daytime highs, especially when there is little in the way of insolation and a slight upslope wind component (north- northeast as opposed to northwest). Highs may only be in the 30s Saturday and 20s Sunday, with the coldest readings at Hays in central Kansas. This is colder than seasonal averages. Precipitation will be light with this weather system, with the EPS and GEPS indicating 60-80% chances for measurable precipitation and 40-60% chances for > .1" of melted precipitation. Precipitation type of course depends on the exact temperature profile in the lower troposphere and forecasting exact numbers (for example 30 versus 33F) with cold air masses several days in advance is extremely challenging. About all we can say at this point is that any rain, freezing drizzle and freezing rain Saturday afternoon and night would transition to snow from north to south Sunday morning. Chances of 1" snow accumulations are 20 to 50% based on the various ensemble means, with the highest chances at Hays and lowest at Elkhart. The GEFS ensemble mean is drier; but this model typically underestimates cold surges and thus has weaker lift as mid level warm advection develops. But even the wetter solutions don't yield very much precipitation. However, it doesn't take a lot of ice to have impacts. After this upper level system passes, cold air may modify by Tuesday before the next cold surge arrives by mid week. However, sometimes cold air stays longer than expected over the plains and we may or may not experience a modification before the next front arrives. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 545 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 A cold front will pass across the TAF sites between 12-15z. Winds will gradually increase to 28-30 kts with gusts to 40-45 kts by 16z and then persist through 22z for KHYS/KDDC/KLBL and KGCK. After 22z, the higher winds will shift into central Kansas (KHYS) as low pressure progresses eastward so that gusts to 40-45 kts could persist through 06z. Areas of blowing dust could restrict visibility at all the TAF sites; but current expectations are for visibilities to generally stay 5 miles or higher. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 A red flag warning remains in effect starting at noon CST today for extreme southwest Kansas. Strong northwesterly momentum will mix to the surface by late morning given expected dry adiabatic lapse rates, with 45-55 mph gusts persisting all day. Despite cold advection, temperatures will reach into the 50s to lower 60s, leading to minimum relative humidity values in the 10-15% range for Liberal, Elkhart, Ulysses, Hugoton, Johnson and Syracuse. If drier air pushes farther east, the red flag warning may need to be extended eastward a bit to include Lakin, Meade and Sublette as humidity values there are currently forecast to be in the 18-22% range. In high wind conditions, it is often better to lean on the side of issuance despite marginal humidity values. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ061-074-075-084>086. && DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Finch FIRE WEATHER...Finch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 459 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-311100- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 459 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 /359 AM MST Mon Dec 30 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas, south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for extreme southwest Kansas this afternoon including Liberal, Elkhart and Syracuse. Northwesterly wind gusts will be as high as 55 mph along with very low humidity. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday There are chances for small accumulations of ice and snow Saturday into Sunday. This is not expected to be a major event, but some impacts are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
11 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust was measured by a mesonet station 1 ESE Scott State Lake.
Measured by a mesonet station 4 miles southwest of Friend, KS.
A Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 2 miles north of N Dodge City measured on mesonet.
Measured by a personal weather station KKSLAKIN-19 about 2 miles north of Lakn.
A sixty five mph non-thunderstorm Wind Gust measured 9 miles SE of Plymell, KS.
Measured 63 mph wind gust by personal station 2 miles east of Shallow Water, KS.
Measured by personal weather station 2 miles east southeast of Ulysses.
Measured by a personal weather station 4 miles south southeast of Dighton, KS.
Traffic light down in Dodge City, KS.
Measured by a personal weather station 9 miles north northwest of Offerle, KS.
Measured by mesonet site at the KZLF transmitter site 2 miles west northwest of Hardtner, KS.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, December 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1222820, 1222822, 1222824, 1222825, 1222826, 1222827, 1222828, 1222829, 1222830, 1222831, 1222832.