Isolated late afternoon storms morphed into a fairly small mesoscale convective system that surged southeastward through Southwestern Illinois. MLCAPE was 3000 J/kg, decreasing to 2000 J/kg for the evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Isolated late afternoon storms morphed into a fairly small mesoscale convective system that surged southeastward through Southwestern Illinois. MLCAPE was 3000 J/kg, decreasing to 2000 J/kg for the evening. Effective bulk shear was 30 kts. A localized swath of significant wind damage occurred in portions of Southwestern Illinois with the most concentrated area of wind damage near Karnak. Other areas receiving wind damage were Gorham, Dongola, Cypress, and Joppa.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 15, 12:27 PM CST, 3 hours 43 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 127 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The best potential for strong to severe storms is 4-9 PM. Storm chances will linger into the night and may continue the strong-severe storm threat, should it materialize. - Heat index values between 100-105 degrees are possible again Friday across portions of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky. - Storm chances linger thru week's end, but cooler and drier, less humid air is forecast to be incoming next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The 12Z modeling suggests the 21z-03z time frame as still the opportune time of development owing to peak instability, but the CAM's at least do suggest perhaps a slightly slower onset time of development, maybe a little further north and west with it too. This might push it back to 22-24z... something to watch closely. A couple of the CAM's suggest it will come later, and thus perhaps, carry less of a severe risk. Pops do spike overnight as the wave makes its way across central IL. All the severe weather parameters are basically unchanged and so damaging winds will continue to be the primary severe weather potential hazard, should one occur, with heavy rain/localized flooding also a highlight hazard. Pops will linger thru the end of the week as the primary long wave trof driving all of the storm activity makes its way across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This may contain a marginal risk of a strong-svr storm during peak heating Friday but the best threat for that is today-tonight. Heat/humidity may threaten Advisory levels near 105 again tmrw but continued clouds/pcpn chances preclude us from a more widespread headline issuance. Similarly the FFG is so high that we'll take a short fuse vs Watch headline approach to heavy rain/flooding potential as well. Eventually some slightly cooler/drier air works in for next week, and we see some 50s dew points return to the forecast by the back end of the week...that'll be an incredible 2nd bout of 50s dew points in August. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Restricted bases and vsbys are possible with thunderstorm chances heightening late this afternoon into tonight. Periods of Visual Flight Rules will temporarily restrict to at least Marginal Visual Flight Rules if/where storms occur. Tmrw looks like a near repeat of today. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 1155 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-161000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 1155 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 /1255 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Strong to potentially severe storms this afternoon into tonight will have damaging winds as the primary severe hazard should one occur, while heavy rainfall may cause some localized flooding. Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees will be possible mainly across southeast Missouri but also adjacent locales in far western Kentucky and southwest Illinois. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast Friday into Saturday. An isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out. Heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees will be possible again Friday afternoon across southeast Missouri and adjacent parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should stay abreast of the latest forecasts and updates in case their activation is requested.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
351 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
MOZ076-152115-
Perry MO-
351 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM CDT...
At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm just
southeast of St. Mary, or south of Chester, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Chester, St. Mary, and Lithium.
This includes Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 135 and 136.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3788 8980 3786 8980 3785 8979 3785 8974
3782 8971 3780 8967 3777 8966 3775 8967
3777 8995 3787 8995 3787 8990 3791 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 260DEG 13KT 3782 8985
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RJPThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:10 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds snapped a tree near the park on the east side of Gorham. Power poles were downed as well.
Downdraft winds blew down trees around Dongola with other trees reported downed throughout the county.
A powerful thunderstorm moving southeastward through SW Johnson County blew down a tree onto IL-37 and knocked down several trees and powerlines in Cypress.
Multiple trees were downed in the Joppa area including a tree on Portland Rd northwest of town as a thunderstorm moved southeastward through the area.
A particularly potent thunderstorm rolled through Pulaski County from the northwest. Several damage reports came in from the Karnak area including Post Creek Rd and Douglas Rd involving numerous trees damaged. A barn caved in on Hillcrest Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1209006, 1209008, 1209009, 1209042, 1209031.