Drought in Guam, February 1 to 29, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
600 PM ChST Wed Jan 31 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers with fresh to strong trade
winds persist across the Marianas this evening. Buoys show seas
between 7 and 8 feet within the coastal waters, while altimetry shows
seas well west of Guam in the 7 to 10 foot range.

&&

.Discussion...
Little change in the previous forecast. A brief window of slightly
weaker winds tonight into tomorrow before breezy conditions return to
the Marianas and persist through the weekend. Model analysis still
showing little in the way of rainfall in the next 7 to 10 days with
a quarter to at the most a half inch of total rainfall expected. A
dry trade-wind pattern and little to no rainfall for the foreseeable
future will only continue to keep the risk for fires elevated.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate to fresh trade-winds are expected tonight through tomorrow,
then strengthen to fresh to strong winds and persist through the
weekend. Seas of 8 to 10 feet will persist through the weekend, and
likely longer due to elevated winds from shear line fragments and
another north swell moving through the Marianas.

&&

.Fire weather...
Moderate to fresh trade winds tonight into tomorrow are expected to
strengthen to fresh to strong trade-winds and persist through at
least early next week. Model guidance continues to indicate little in
the way of rainfall with between a quarter to a half inch of
rainfall at the most expected across the Marianas in the next 7 to 10
days. The KDBI currently sits at 585 and will likely climb into the
600s, or very high category, over the weekend. Any burning or open
fires are highly discouraged for the foreseeable future.

&&

.Tropical systems...
A weak circulation, Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Invest 93W,
is centered near 5N169E. This system shows little likelihood of
development over the next few days due to the presence of strong
vertical shear across the region. Models show the circulation
becoming an open trough near Kosrae by Thursday or Thursday evening.
93W will continue to be monitored for any changes over the next
couple of days.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
The main feature affecting eastern Micronesia is a weak circulation,
JTWC Invest 93W, centered near 5N169E. Models don't favor any
development of this feature as it makes its way west over the next
several days. Latest guidance shows the circulation moving west and
opening into a trough by Thursday as it approaches Kosrae. Even
though this feature is weak and looks to weaken over the next couple
of days, it is expected to maintain numerous showers across Majuro
through tonight, with showers increasing at Kosrae Thursday and
Pohnpei Friday. By Friday night, a drier pattern looks to move into
the Marshalls, spreading westward to Kosrae by Saturday night and to
Pohnpei by Sunday night. The dry pattern then looks to continue
through at least the middle of next week.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the region through
the beginning of next week. Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet tonight look
to slowly build over the next several days, possibly reaching 10 feet
over the weekend at Pohnpei, 9 feet at Kosrae and Majuro. Seas could
build to around 10 feet at Majuro over the weekend, however, decided
to stay below 10 feet for now.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
There is a weakening shear line fragment just north of Yap that is
maintaining fresh to strong northeast winds across Yap Proper. There
are also a few showers associated with this feature. Otherwise, a
fairly dry pattern remains in place across western Micronesia. This
dry pattern looks to continue through the end of the week for Chuuk
and through the weekend for Yap and Palau. Over the weekend, a
robust trough, currently a weak circulation over the Marshall
Islands, looks to move into Chuuk State, bringing increasing
convection to Chuuk for the weekend, with a drier pattern moving in
around the beginning of next week. This trough is expected to
continue to move west, bringing the convection to Yap and Palau
Monday, continuing through the middle of next week. Palau will likely
see more showers than Yap, though both locations can expect elevated
rainfall potential.

For the marine environment, the shear line fragment looks to maintain
fresh to strong winds and elevated seas at Yap, while seas and winds
have subsided a bit at Palau. Seas and winds look to remain hazardous
for small craft operations at Yap through Thursday night, and could
continue into the weekend. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
for Palau was cancelled a little early while the SCA for Yap remains
in effect through 5 AM Friday. Even though seas have subsided at
Palau, the High Surf Advisory for both Yap and Palau was extended
through Friday afternoon as a northeast swell looks to remain high
enough to produce 9 foot surf at both locations.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GUZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Friday for GUZ001.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Friday for MPZ001>003.

Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST Friday for
	 PMZ151>154.

&&

Marianas/Fire weather: Kelly
Micronesia/Tropical: Kleeschulte