A weakening line of strong to severe thunderstorms moved into northeast Georgia during the early morning hours in advance of a cold front. Isolated damaging wind gusts were occurred in Rabun County.
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The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
A weakening line of strong to severe thunderstorms moved into northeast Georgia during the early morning hours in advance of a cold front. Isolated damaging wind gusts were occurred in Rabun County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 2:00 AM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 300 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms early this morning with another round possible Monday afternoon with a cold front. Cooler and drier conditions return Tuesday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 244 AM EDT Monday: As we await the arrival of the line of thunderstorms coming off the Cumberland Plateau at 230 AM, some renewed shower activity was noted over the NW Piedmont where some residual lift was present, and over the SW upslope areas. Will update the precip probs to account for this. Speaking of the upstream convection, the current movement of the line would have it reaching the NC/TN border right around 08Z. However, the line is broken and is more parallel to the shear vector than the part of the line in eastern KY, which suggests less of a threat for widespread wind damage. It might actually be the rogue thunderstorms ahead of the line in northern AL that could be more of a problem if they get incorporated into the line and then reach southwest NC. As for warnings, we will begin by taking our cues from the MRX office and then go from there. Still no inkling of impending weather watches, but that can change quickly. Available buoyancy is the main limiting factor across the NC mountains, with maybe 1000-1500 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE and maybe 500-1000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE that was limited to the southern mountains. This is all to say the trend is toward the underwhelming, but let's not let our guard down until the line actually hits the mtns and falls apart in its attempt to cross the divide. Precip probs were adjusted accordingly. For today, the plan remains to gradually diminish the remnant of the QLCS east of the mtns after daybreak, with the best thunder chances and higher precip probs over northeast GA and the Savannah R basin, where the deeper convection can reach without crossing the mtns. In the wake of the QLCS remnants, expect widespread debris cloudiness and lingering light rain. Indications are that the precip and clouds will break up early enough in the day to allow some air mass recovery. The RAP still shows muCAPE climbing back up to the 2500-3000 J/kg range in the late afternoon, along with 30-35 kt of deep layer/cloud layer shear. If that is indeed the case, then scattered thunderstorms could develop mainly east of the mtns, and pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Coverage on the CAMs is relatively widely scattered, but a few severe storms will not be ruled out. Temps will top out maybe a few deg above normal assuming the clouds break early enough in the day. The deep convection should move off to the east by mid-evening or so. For tonight, we should have more quiet weather. Can't rule out a few showers in the westerly upslope areas along the TN border. Drying aloft suggests some fog potential, also assuming some locations get the rain late in the day. Low temps should cool off a bit, but still above normal. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 AM Monday: Kicking off a quieter stretch Tuesday as the surface cold front heads out to sea and drier air filters in behind. The upper low continues to lift toward the NE. Meanwhile, an omega blocking pattern emerges over the CONUS and keeps trough toward the north of the CWA. The pressure gradient is not anticipated to be tight, so some low-end wind gusts possible across the higher elevations through the end of the period. Guidance from the GFS and Euro does suggest a stray shower across the far northern NC mountains Tuesday afternoon, but models have also been trending drier over the past few forecast cycles. So confidence is very low. Upper flow should start to turn more NW by Wednesday night as the ridge axis over the central plains moves eastward. Will keep non- zero PoPs at this point. Temps will be warmest Tuesday during the short term and decrease closer to climo by Wednesday. Overnight temps will also be on the decline Wednesday night as drier air continues to move in and drop dewpoints. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 155 AM Sunday: By Thursday, a semi-strong omega blocking pattern continues over the CONUS, leaving the CWA in a weakening NW flow regime. Thursday and Friday will remain dry as heights begin to rise gradually as the ridge axis out west approaches the area. By Saturday, the axis will be over the CWA and also dry. Guidance does start to diverge on the next potential chance for showers. The Euro develops a weak upper low and trough that approaches the area by Sunday. However, the GFS keeps this weakened low from really forming and prevents any rainfall from reaching the CWA through the end of the forecast period. Either way, there's very little confidence in this as we start to transition into a more summer like pattern. So for now, consider the extended forecast dry and warm. Temperatures should remain close to climo. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dealing with a few showers over the NW Piedmont of NC, otherwise we are in the lull before the next line of storms arrives from the west. There could be some brief fog restrictions at any of the terminals prior to the arrival of the line, but VFR should prevail with light/var wind. The guidance is fairly consistent in bringing a line of strong/severe storms up to the TN border around 09Z. Confidence is highest with KAVL thunder probs this morning, but east of the mtns the situation is much less certain, as a few of the CAMs show this really struggling to make it east of the Blue Ridge. The line appears to be organized well enough that discretion suggests keeping a TEMPO for all terminals for now, until we are more certain that the line will actually diminish and dissipate, which should happen in the mid/late morning at any rate during the diurnal minimum. Wind should be SW. This afternoon is also uncertain, but several of the CAMs still develop scattered storms after sufficient air mass recovery happens. Will include a PROB30 at most terminals to account for this. By nightfall, the convection should be to the east. The passage of the front is expected to happen in the late evening or early morning Tuesday, bringing a shift to the NW. It remains to be seen how much fog we get around daybreak Tuesday, but the guidance is keen on fog development. Outlook: Drier weather is expected by midweek with VFR conditions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...PM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 142 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504- 506-508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-280545- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell- Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell- Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville- Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee- Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville- Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg- 142 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A cold front moves into the are overnight and brings a line of thunderstorms before daybreak to the NC mountains. If the line can stay together, areas east of the mountains could have damaging winds, cloud- to- ground lightning and hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is possible on Monday with a few strong to severe storms east of the NC mountains. Main threats will be strong gusty winds, cloud-to- ground lightning and hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-280545- Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- 142 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A cold front moves into the area overnight and brings another chance for thunderstorms before daybreak. The main threats will be damaging winds, cloud-to-ground lightning and hail. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is possible on Monday with a few strong thunderstorms in the Western Carolina Mountains. Main threats will be strong gusty winds, cloud- to- ground lightning and hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
NCZ051-058-270830-
Graham NC-Swain NC-
401 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THROUGH
430 AM EDT...
At 401 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Gatlinburg to 16 miles
northwest of Bryson City to 17 miles northwest of Robbinsville.
Movement was southeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Robbinsville, Bryson City, Town Of Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Deep
Creek, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area,
Lake Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Fontana Lake, and
Fontana Village.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3552 8388 3553 8382
3556 8377 3558 8360 3556 8350 3561 8345
3567 8334 3566 8330 3569 8326 3567 8318
3564 8320 3563 8318 3560 8319 3557 8316
3546 8335 3526 8401 3531 8404 3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 301DEG 37KT 3576 8341 3561 8364 3548 8404
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MOORESpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
432 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
NCZ051-058-059-062-270900-
Graham NC-Swain NC-Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
432 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MACON...NORTHWESTERN
JACKSON...SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 500 AM EDT...
At 432 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles east of Gatlinburg to 7 miles west of
Bryson City to 10 miles west of Robbinsville. Movement was east at 45
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Sylva, Bryson City, Robbinsville, Cherokee, Dillsboro, Town Of
Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky Mountains-Fontana
Area, Lake Santeetlah, and Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3541 8402 3550 8390 3556 8376 3556 8350
3561 8345 3566 8330 3569 8326 3567 8319
3557 8316 3551 8318 3543 8308 3534 8324
3515 8373 3520 8373 3523 8369 3526 8371
3525 8385 3522 8396 3523 8400 3531 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 289DEG 41KT 3566 8327 3547 8358 3529 8398
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MOORESpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
521 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
NCZ033-049-050-505-270945-
McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
521 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN MCDOWELL...MITCHELL...
WESTERN AVERY AND YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM EDT...
At 520 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Elizabethton to 10 miles
south of Burnsville. Movement was east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Spruce Pine, Burnsville, Newland, Old Fort, Elk Park, Bakersville,
Beech Mountain In Avery County, and Mount Mitchell State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3627 8189 3621 8191 3619 8188 3558 8211
3576 8234 3580 8234 3582 8236 3582 8241
3610 8239 3614 8229 3613 8227 3613 8225
3616 8222 3614 8218 3615 8215 3611 8213
3610 8208 3613 8205 3612 8203 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0920Z 277DEG 27KT 3622 8217 3576 8232
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MOORESpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
532 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
NCZ052-053-064-065-505-271015-
Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Haywood NC-
Henderson NC-
532 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...
NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...NORTHERN HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD
AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM EDT...
At 532 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Waynesville, or near Canton, moving southeast at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, Waynesville, Hendersonville, East Asheville,
Arden, West Asheville, North Asheville, Black Mountain, Mills River,
and Woodfin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3579 8234 3575 8233 3573 8229 3570 8227
3571 8225 3558 8210 3553 8218 3552 8223
3550 8223 3531 8251 3533 8296 3537 8300
3538 8300 3558 8304 3582 8241 3582 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 0932Z 292DEG 22KT 3549 8284
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MOOREThe Greer radar (KGSP), 117 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:07 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
County comms reported at least five trees along with a few power lines blown down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1186702.