What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 1:50 PM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 1:50 PM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
250 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend.
Meanwhile, a cold front moves in from the north and becomes
stationary near the southern portion of the forecast area on
Saturday. This front will increase the chance for thunderstorm
activity outside the mountains through Sunday. More typical
summertime thunderstorm development returns Monday and persists
through next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday: Thunderstorms will remain numerous across the
mountains through late afternoon with scattered activity developing
into the Piedmont through mid-evening within the axis of 2500-3500
j/kg SBCAPE values. Decent enough storm motion should limit the
excessive rain threat, but we will continue to monitor for any
training storms, especially in the high terrain. Thanks to an axis
of moderately high downdraft CAPE values analyzed across the
piedmont, there remains the potential for a few storms to produce
damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, after storms ash out, temperatures
will remain warm all night with daybreak minimums flirting with
record high minimums. More summertime storms are expected on
Saturday as baroclinic zone activates, aided by vort energy
translating into the region within the moderate sw flow aloft. The
short range model consensus actually has the better forcing east of
the Blue Ridge tomorrow, where cvrg should blossom to numerous. Just
like today, there is the ongoing threat for isolated excessive
rainfall and damaging wind gusts. The llvl thickness ridge shifts
east away from the region on Saturday displacing heat advisory
concerns to the I-95 corridor and coastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 pm Friday: A broad long wave trough will be centered
across the central Conus through the short term, with the southern
Appalachians and vicinity expected to be near the southern periphery
of the subtropical jet. A surface boundary...perhaps being displaced
by a lee/thermal trough with time, will remain over or near our CWA
through the period, which in light of continued very moist
conditions (PWATs at least the 75th percentile in terms of
climatology through the period) will continue to enhance diurnal
convective chances early in the new week. Above-normal coverage of
convection is expected both Sunday and Monday afternoon/evening,
with general likely PoPs forecast over the mountains, and 50-60%
chances across the Piedmont both days. Instability will be adequate
for multiple strong+ storms, with a few pulse-y or multicell cluster
severe storms possible. Unusually high moisture, along with cell
motion of < 10 kts, and some potential for training storms will
yield a threat for locally excessive rainfall both days, especially
for locations that see multiple days of heavy rainfall. With the
increased activity and expected relatively early start to convective
initiation...as well as lower heights aloft, temps will be cooler
than they've recently been...generally around or even slightly below
climo.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 pm Friday: The early portion of the medium range will be a
battle for influence on the weather across the southern Appalachians
between an upper trough across the central Conus, and a subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic. The consensus of the latest global
model guidance suggests the ridge may begin to win the day toward
mid-week. Thus, PoPs for diurnal convection will trend down closer
to climatology Tue/Wed. A few strong-to-severe storms producing
microbursts and locally heavy rainfall will remain possible,
although with a diminishing threat due to fewer targets of
opportunity. (There will almost certainly be pockets of the CWA with
relatively poor antecedent conditions, so the excessive rainfall
threat will remain elevated for those areas.) Moisture associated
with the remnants of T.C. Beryl pose a potential fly in the forecast
ointment late in the period. However, the GFS and Canadian tend to
spin the cyclone down over Texas, while even the ECMWF...which has
consistently maintained a closed circulation into the Tenn Valley in
the Day 5/6 time frame...keeps the notable impacts very close to
the center. So...even indirect/minimal impacts appear unlikely for
our area at this time. Temperatures are forecast to remain within a
degree or two of climo through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT...Will plan on holding off on chances for TSRA until closer
to 00z based on convection allowing model timing of clusters of deep
convection moving off the higher terrain after mid-afternoon and
approaching the terminal during the early evening. After storms
dissipate by midnight and within the moist blyr layer, there remains
model signals of a period of lower clouds, perhaps an mvfr cig
around daybreak. Unless rain actually materializes, will also hold
off on introducing any vsby restrictions. An activating frontal
zone is fcst for the Carolina piedmont Saturday afternoon, so
introduced tsra chances after 18z.
Outlook: Diurnally-driven convection will continue each day thru the
weekend and into early next week, leading to sct showers and
thunderstorms and possible restrictions each afternoon/evening.
Fog and/or low stratus may develop each morning, especially over
areas that received rain the previous day.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ018-026-028-
029.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ036-037-056-
057-068>072-082-508-510.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
104>109.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK/CSHHazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 3:54 AM EST, 11 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
454 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-
104>109-060900-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Anderson-
Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
454 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Heat Advisory.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. Isolated storms
may become strong enough to produce damaging winds. Heavy rainfall
and cloud to ground lightning will also be possible.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ101>103-
060900-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-
Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
454 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. A few storms
may become strong enough to produce damaging winds. Heavy rainfall
and cloud to ground lightning will also be possible.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
Krentz
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 5, 2:19 PM EST, 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
NCZ033-050-051945-
Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
319 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND
NORTHWESTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...
At 319 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Newland, or 6 miles northeast of Bakersville, moving
northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Banner Elk, Elk Park, Beech Mountain In Avery County, Buladean, and
Minneapolis.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3628 8190 3626 8189 3623 8191 3621 8190
3619 8188 3619 8186 3616 8183 3608 8197
3603 8218 3613 8225 3616 8222 3614 8218
3615 8215 3611 8213 3610 8208 3613 8205
3612 8203 3628 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 238DEG 16KT 3609 8211
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Jul 5, 2:33 PM EST, 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
333 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
GAZ010-NCZ062-052015-
Rabun GA-Macon NC-
333 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT RABUN AND MACON COUNTIES THROUGH
415 PM EDT...
At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles east of Andrews to 9 miles east of
Hayesville to 4 miles south of Hiawassee. Movement was east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Clayton, Highlands, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Sky
Valley, Lake Burton, Nantahala Lake, and Black Rock Mountain State
Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3525 8370 3527 8332 3523 8328 3524 8322
3516 8322 3509 8315 3506 8317 3499 8310
3494 8311 3488 8324 3479 8332 3482 8365
3488 8366 3494 8360 3495 8355 3499 8355
3500 8348 3500 8352 3515 8365 3515 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 275DEG 23KT 3519 8374 3504 8366 3488 8375
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Jul 5, 2:40 PM EST, 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
NCZ065-507>510-052015-
Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...EAST
CENTRAL HENDERSON AND NORTHERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...
At 340 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Columbus, or 6 miles south of Lake Lure, moving
northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Rutherfordton, Lake Lure, Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State
Park, Bat Cave, Green Hill, Mill Spring, Lake Adger, and Shingle
Hollow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
If on or near Lake Lure, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3539 8194 3526 8216 3536 8235 3547 8227
3546 8225 3547 8224 3550 8222 3552 8223
3552 8220 3553 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 221DEG 13KT 3536 8225
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Jul 5, 2:56 PM EST, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
356 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
NCZ048-049-053-052030-
Buncombe NC-Yancey NC-Madison NC-
356 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MADISON...
NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...
At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Downtown Asheville, or near Weaverville, moving
northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, North Asheville, Woodfin, Weaverville, Mount
Mitchell State Park, B.R. Parkway-East Asheville To Craggy Gardens,
B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland, UNC-Asheville, East
Asheville, and West Asheville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3594 8234 3575 8218 3573 8219 3571 8224
3570 8226 3570 8229 3568 8229 3558 8257
3574 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 242DEG 23KT 3570 8251
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Jul 5, 2:58 PM EST, 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
358 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
NCZ033-050-052030-
Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
358 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND CENTRAL
AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...
At 358 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Beech Mountain to 10 miles northwest of
Spruce Pine. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Banner Elk, Elk Park, Beech Mountain In Avery County, Seven Devils,
Sugar Mountain, Bakersville, Minneapolis, and Buladean.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3628 8190 3626 8189 3623 8191 3621 8191
3619 8188 3619 8186 3616 8183 3614 8182
3601 8218 3615 8219 3614 8218 3615 8215
3611 8213 3610 8208 3613 8205 3612 8203
3628 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 237DEG 15KT 3625 8190 3606 8215
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Jul 5, 3:00 PM EST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
GAZ010-017-052030-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HABERSHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN RABUN
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...
At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Clarkesville, or 5 miles southwest of Lake Rabun,
moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clarkesville, Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Mount Airy, Alto, Tallulah
Falls, Lake Rabun, Lakemont, and Tallulah Gorge State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3454 8362 3460 8365 3462 8364 3465 8366
3473 8362 3476 8363 3479 8366 3482 8365
3479 8332 3476 8332 3473 8335 3470 8335
3469 8334 3467 8337 3449 8346 3449 8354
3443 8362 3450 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 237DEG 15KT 3470 8352
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CAC