Funnel Cloud in Florida, May 1, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
222 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Upper level troughing moves off the eastern seaboard into the
western Atlantic. This will allow for broad upper ridging to build
in over the southeast U.S. starting today and continuing through the
end of the week. By Saturday, the upper ridge moves near the Bahamas
while weak troughing moves through the southeast U.S. This will be
short-lived as the ridge builds back in by Monday and continues
through the middle of next week. On the surface, high pressure near
Bermuda ridges westward over Florida and will dominate the weather
pattern through the week. There will be some minor north/south
movements of the ridge axis during the forecast period as an area of
low pressure moves north of the area over the weekend, but overall
this ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature
through the period. Rain chances will remain on the low side (10-30
percent) through the period. Above average temperatures are
expected with daytime highs topping out in the mid 80's along the
coast to low 90's over the interior. Overnight lows will dip only
into the mid 60's to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions with winds less than 12 knots expected
through the forecast period. Rain and storm chances remain on the
low side again, so will only mention at LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW for VCSH
during the late afternoon hours between 20-03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge westward over Florida
and into the Gulf of Mexico and will dominate the weather with
mostly rain-free conditions through the week and into the weekend.
Winds will remain 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making
for pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea breeze is
expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure builds in over the area and will dominate the weather
through the period. A slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and
storms will be possible the next few days, primarily over the
interior. RH values are expected to remain above critical levels
with no other fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  90  72  90 /   0  20   0  10
FMY  70  90  70  90 /  30  20  10  10
GIF  67  90  67  91 /  20  20   0  10
SRQ  69  89  69  90 /  10  20   0  10
BKV  63  92  64  91 /  10  20   0  10
SPG  73  88  73  87 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard