Damaging Wind in Florida, July 21, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1040 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024
A weak tropical wave is near the Florida Keys beneath a weakening
TUTT cell. Mean-layer flow is cyclonic at all levels, tempered by
dry air slots noted on the low and mid-level GOES water vapor
channels. Flow into the back side of the wave is meager, hence the
limited coverage of showers and storms. The lapse rates sampled
by the 00Z KKEY RAOB are steep from 700 to 350 mb, adding to the
strong ML instability. On-the-whole, the sounding looks ripe for
thunderstorms, but all we can really manage right now is the
strong storm which moved away from the Cay Sal Bank and is nearing
the Upper Keys this hour. The relic outflow from Cuba stabilized
much of the Lower Keys and waters to the south. Nevertheless, the
ingredients and statistical guidance all point to likely
rain/thunder chances overnight into Monday. The triggering
mechanism likely will be the shift in SFC winds back to the
southeast around sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Atlantic ridging will
extend westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of
Mexico through the next several days, with gentle to moderate
east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal
waters. A weak tropical wave will move through the area tonight
into Monday, bringing an increase in rain and thunder chances,
along with a temporary shift in breezes to the southeast to south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024
A weak tropical wave is across the Keys this evening. Statistical
guidance suggests rain and thunder chances will be well above
normal for the EYW and MTH terminals tonight and Monday. Radar
trends suggest there may be a lull for the next several hours due
to post convective rain stabilization. We highlight VCTS at both
terminals beginning around 15Z, a little earlier than the CAM-
based statistical guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  90  84  91 /  60  60  30  30
Marathon  81  90  84  91 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
426 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-220900-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
426 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected this morning, with scattered
thunderstorms expected this afternoon and tonight. The primary
hazards will be lightning strikes and locally gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday, otherwise
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
rest of the period. The primary hazards will be lightning strikes
and locally gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.