High pressure to the west continued to advect much drier air across northern and central portions of eastern Utah and western Colorado resulting in a downturn in storm coverage. However, a small pocket of deep subtropical moisture still remained over the eastern San Juans and Archuleta County, resulting in a few stronger storms that produced heavy rainfall rates and localized flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
High pressure to the west continued to advect much drier air across northern and central portions of eastern Utah and western Colorado resulting in a downturn in storm coverage. However, a small pocket of deep subtropical moisture still remained over the eastern San Juans and Archuleta County, resulting in a few stronger storms that produced heavy rainfall rates and localized flash flooding. One particular storm resulted in a debris flow over Archuleta County near Chimney Rock.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 22, 4:46 PM MST, 14 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 546 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier air moving in from the north will confine showers and storms to the San Juans and along the spine of the Continental Divide though a stray shower or storm can't be ruled out over the surrounding higher terrain. - Hot temperatures move in for Tuesday through Thursday. - A push of monsoonal moisture is expected late week, bringing increasing storm coverage. Some uncertainty remains over how long this moisture will linger over the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Visible satellite imagery is showing plenty of cumulus buildup over the higher terrain this afternoon with some showers and a few storms noted over the southern valleys and heading up to Wolf Creek Pass. Exactly as the hi-res models were indicating yesterday and again today. As one would expect, the highest CAPE values are in that same area which is also where the PWATs are highest as well. For the rest of the afternoon and evening the 18Z HRRR continues to show the best chances for convection over Archuleta county with a few cells popping in La Plata County. Might see some convection along the spine of the Continental Divide as well. Suppose we can't rule out a stray shower or storm over the remaining higher terrain. Even so, coverage looks rather sparse and less intense than that seen recently but some brief heavy rain, and gusty outflow winds can't be ruled out. Some very small hail might also make a quick appearance. Outside of that convection, we'll see some hazy skies thanks to the fires up north (including Canada) and warm temperatures. Calm conditions expected overnight though overnight lows will run on the warm side of things. The area of high pressure remains to our west Tuesday as that northerly flow allows drier air to continue moving in. 0.4 to 0.6 inches of PWAT will remain across the area with a small sliver of around 0.8 inches for the southern valleys. Guidance has pulled back on coverage some but for all intents and purposes, it'll be very similar to what we see today. Highs will run about 5 degrees warmer than today for most regions. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2024 An amplifying ridge over the Southwest Wednesday will push temperatures above 100 again here in the Grand Valley and in our low desert valleys of eastern Utah. Temperatures will trend around 10 degrees over climatology across the region as the tilted ridge axis builds from the Four Corners into the northern Plains. Thursday and Friday will see area temperatures back off slightly under the influence of cloud cover and more rain. A storm working across the Canadian Rockies will drag a trailing front into the northern portion of the CWA by Friday. This along with subtropical monsoon moisture working under the high from the south will enrich the convective environment on the terrain both Thursday and Friday. The lingering frontal boundary looks to hang up across our northern counties on Saturday, while afternoon convection shifts slightly east on most of our terrain Saturday afternoon. Deterministic solutions flatten a broad, zonal ridge over the CWA on Sunday, with some weak orographic showers possible, given enough moisture to work with. Things look mostly dry as the monsoonal moisture tap gets shunted south. Models hold on to this pattern for Monday. The subtropical moisture remains right at our doorstep across Arizona on Monday. It seems premature at this distance in time to count on a dry forecast. However, it would be fair to expect a return to monsoonal flow sometime in the latter hours of this extended period and beyond. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 545 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Evening convection, favoring KDRO and KGUC, will wane as the sun sets. In turn, gusty outflow winds will also weaken as the surface decouples and drainage winds prevail overnight. Chance for nocturnal storms remains low, maintaining VFR conditions through Tuesday morning. Tuesday's forecast also appears weak, in terms of afternoon convection, with less than a 10 percent chance of measurable precip over most terminals. KDRO and KTEX fall within the 10 to 20 percent range, as the San Juan's may tap into the better moisture source rotating across the Desert Southwest. Thus, gusty outflow winds cannot be ruled out for southern TAF sites from nearby convection. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 533 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2024 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-231145- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 533 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Much of eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain sunny and dry today, with the only chances of showers and thunderstorms expected over the San Juans and along the central Divide mountains. Main threats will be gusty winds, brief heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning. Activity will diminish after sunset. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A gradual warmup will continue through Wednesday, with mostly dry conditions prevailing. Shower and storm activity will be confined to the southern and central Divide. A push of monsoonal moisture is expected late Thursday into the weekend, bringing widespread showers and storms and cooler temperatures. Chances of heavy rain and flash flooding will be on the increase during this period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain from strong thunderstorms resulted in a rock slide across Highway 151 in an area between the intersection of Forest Service Road 618 and Highway 160. Colorado Highway 151 was closed in both directions due to the rock slide between mile markers 32 and 33.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1204574.