High based thunderstorms under a ridge of high pressure caused strong outflow winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
High based thunderstorms under a ridge of high pressure caused strong outflow winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 1:32 PM MST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 232 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last through this evening, with strong outflow winds. - Slight Risk for severe weather Tuesday evening. Main risks will be strong winds of 40 to 60 mph over the adjacent plains and 1.5"+ hail, 60 to 70 mph wind gusts, and an isolated tornado close to the Kansas border. - Flash flood risk for the mountains and the I-25 corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Monsoonal thunderstorms will continue throughout the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Currently... Isolated thunderstorms have already popped up across the higher terrain and parts of our northern I-25 corridor. SPC Mesoanalysis page is showing around 1500 J/kg of DCAPE depending on where you look across the plains and I-25 corridor, and observations are showing some pretty large dewpoint depressions. As such, gusty outflow winds continue to be our main concern this afternoon. Rest of Today and Tonight... Shower and thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase this afternoon and evening, with northwest steering flow aloft pushing activity off of the mountains and onto the adjacent plains within the next few hours. While scattered convection will be possible this evening for the entire eastern plains, the best chance for any stronger storms will be along and north of Highway 50 where effective bulk shear is maximized closer to 30-35 knots. While some storms may be capable of producing moderate to briefly heavy rainfall, given the dewpoint depressions and sounding profiles, our biggest convective impact risk for today will be strong outflow winds. As we move into the overnight hours, showers and storms will dissipate, mostly leaving the area by around 10pm. Tuesday... The upper-level ridge will break down on Tuesday as a cold front is pushed south across the eastern plains, hinting at the end of this stretch of excessive heat. High temperatures will be in the high-80s to mid-90s across the eastern plains, and mainly spread across the 80s for the mountain valleys. Looking at precipitation chances, the extent of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon will likely depend on a few key factors. First, the timing of the cold front will play a key role in localized lift and an influx of better moisture. Additionally, winds behind the front will quickly turn more northeasterly, allowing for some moist upslope into our higher terrain. Next, looking aloft, a perturbation to the mid and upper-level flow will be passing over tomorrow afternoon, coinciding with some lee troughing near the surface. Between that and the front, there will be plenty of lift across the area to help initiate storms. Meanwhile, high-res models are plotting varying amounts of CAPE, depending on which model you look at, with most in support of a decent amount of convective activity. Even some of the less enthusiastic models, such as the GFS, are showing between about 600-1200 J/kg, while more aggressive models bring in a larger wedge of unstable air behind the front, getting closer to 2000 J/kg by early afternoon. Then, given the easterly post-frontal winds at the surface along with breezy northwest winds aloft, bulk shear should be 30-35 knots or more. So overall, Tuesday is shaping up to be an active convective day, with thunderstorms forming over and near the mountains during early to mid-afternoon before moving off to the east-southeast. Storms will intensify as they approach the Kansas border, where instability will be at its highest. Convection is not expected to be very isolated in nature, with wider overall coverage on account of the easterly upslope. However, a few discrete cells cannot be ruled out. In general, main concerns for tomorrow will be strong outflow winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding in vulnerable areas. Most of the stronger to severe storms will be over the eastern plains, but the mountains could still see some heavy rainfall and gusty winds as well. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Tuesday Evening: There is a slight risk for severe weather outlooked over our far eastern plains on Tuesday afternoon. The short term forecast has the hazards over the I-25 corridor, but the far eastern plains is expected to have between 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, around 30 kts of 0-6km Bulk Shear, and a straight line hodograph in place. All of this leads to all hazard risks as splitting supercells are expected with this type of set-up. 1.5"+ hail, 60 to 70 mph wind gusts, and an isolated tornado are all possible with the risk increasing near the Kansas border. Wednesday: The post frontal airmass creating east-southeasterly winds all along the plains towards our mountains. There is around 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE all along the eastern mountains and the plains. In Wednesday's case, the further east you travel, the stronger the CIN and the closer to the mountains the less CIN there is. This really confines the flash flooding and severe risk to over the adjacent plains and the eastern mountains. The CAPE profile over those regions has long and skinny CAPE, which is a very good sounding for very heavy rains. I am not issuing it right now, but a Flash Flood Watch may be needed over the eastern mountains and I-25 corridor on Wednesday afternoon and evening. We'll need to pay close attention to the population areas, especially in low lying areas, and our active burn scars, the Spring Creek and Decker burn scars. Thursday through Sunday: Like mentioned before, the high pressure will remain over the desert southwest, wobbling slowly further to the west by the end of the forecast period. This results in daily chances for thunderstorms over the mountains that spread over the eastern plains. There always seems to be this looming moisture boundary near the Kansas border that has around 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40 kts of 0-6km Bulk Shear, but by time the thunderstorms reach that area, the night time inversion stabilizes the atmosphere. So main risks are going to be heavy rains over the mountains. The severe thunderstorm risk over this area is pretty limited due to the lack of shear. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Gusty winds will pick up this afternoon, from the west at KALS and from the east-northeast at KCOS and KPUB, gusting around 20- 25 knots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the area this afternoon into early evening as well, with the most likely time of storm formation between 20-02Z. Gusty outflow could cause erratic winds upwards of 50 knots. Storms will depart the areas near the terminals by approximately 9pm, though a few showers may linger over the Palmer Divide a bit longer. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-093- 097-098. && SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1128 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 COZ058>089-093>099-161730- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 1128 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the area today. Storms will fire over and near the higher terrain early this afternoon before pushing east. Main impact concerns will be damaging outflow winds to around 60 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Weaker storms over the mountains will still be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and outflow gusts to 45 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous from Tuesday through the end of the work week. Showers and thunderstorms, along with severe weather, are expected to return to the plains Tuesday into Tuesday night. The primary threats Tuesday will be damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding. Several more rounds of thunderstorms are expected into the late week with a threat of flash flooding each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be possible over portions of the region. GARBEROGLIO/RODRIGUEZ
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
211 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
COZ084-085-152045-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
211 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH
245 PM MDT...
At 211 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cimarron Hills, or 8 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east
at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Schriever Space Force Base, Falcon, Cimarron Hills,
and Peterson Space Force Base.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3884 10480 3899 10475 3898 10441 3870 10449
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 281DEG 11KT 3890 10469
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KTSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
214 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
COZ083-085-086-152045-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
214 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FREMONT...
SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
MDT...
At 213 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Penrose, or 23 miles northwest of Pueblo, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Penrose and Pueblo West.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3839 10507 3857 10504 3855 10470 3829 10477
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 281DEG 11KT 3847 10498
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KTSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
243 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
COZ083-085-086-152115-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
243 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FREMONT...SOUTH
CENTRAL EL PASO AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM
MDT...
At 243 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Penrose, or 18 miles northwest of Pueblo, moving east
at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Fountain, Pueblo West, Pinon, and Penrose.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3838 10496 3850 10497 3858 10493 3860 10484
3859 10467 3852 10460 3842 10460 3833 10465
3834 10481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 278DEG 11KT 3847 10485
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KTSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
COZ084-085-152145-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
249 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM MDT...
At 249 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellicott, or 19 miles east of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Calhan, Ramah, Truckton, Yoder, Ellicott, Peyton, Rush, and Schriever
Space Force Base.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3867 10405 3864 10438 3913 10476 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 261DEG 11KT 3890 10446
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KTSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
333 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
COZ079-083-086-089-093-152200-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-Crowley County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
333 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OTERO...SOUTHEASTERN
FREMONT...NORTHEASTERN CUSTER...WESTERN CROWLEY AND PUEBLO COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 PM MDT...
At 333 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles east of Boone to 6
miles south of Blende to 10 miles southwest of Pueblo Reservoir.
Movement was east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Airport, Fowler, Ordway, Olney Springs, Boone, Sugar
City, Crowley, Pueblo Reservoir, Salt Creek, Pueblo Depot, Blende,
Avondale, Pueblo West, Beulah, and Colorado City.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3822 10363 3793 10439 3794 10498 3819 10505
3829 10490 3852 10404 3847 10389
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 291DEG 14KT 3827 10411 3815 10454 3816 10489
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
SimcoeSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
401 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
COZ089-152230-
Crowley County CO-
401 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CROWLEY COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM MDT...
At 401 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles southwest of Forder to 12 miles
northwest of Ordway to 7 miles north of Crowley. Movement was east at
25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Crowley
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3851 10356 3835 10355 3827 10365 3830 10402
3843 10403 3852 10399 3852 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 280DEG 20KT 3851 10387 3838 10386 3830 10390
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
SimcoeThe Pueblo radar (KPUX), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:30 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong outflow winds of 60mph were recorded northeast of Sugar City.
Strong outflow winds of 61mph were recorded northwest of Two Buttes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1204839, 1204840.