A decaying derecho moved through the area late in the evening on July 15th. Storms raced eastward into southwest Lower Michigan and northern Indiana, prompting several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for winds up to 70+ mph and Tornado Warnings for embedded rotation along the line.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A decaying derecho moved through the area late in the evening on July 15th. Storms raced eastward into southwest Lower Michigan and northern Indiana, prompting several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for winds up to 70+ mph and Tornado Warnings for embedded rotation along the line. Three tornadoes were confirmed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 6:05 PM EST, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
705 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is high confidence in severe weather occurring overnight tonight,
mainly in the 10 PM to 4 AM EDT timeframe. There is an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather across
northern Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. Damaging wind
gusts 60 to 75 mph likely, with significant gusts over 75 mph
possible and a few tornadoes too. A high-end impact damaging
wind event is possible.
- Alongside the severe threat, flash flooding is also possible
overnight, especially in areas that remain saturated from
recent heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for along
and west of US 31.
- A cold front moves through Tuesday, bringing scattered rain/storm
chances (30-60%) in the afternoon and evening.
- Cooler, drier weather is anticipated midweek through next
weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
There is high confidence in severe weather occurring late tonight
into early Tuesday morning, mainly in the 10 PM to 4 AM EDT
timeframe. SPC has expanded the 30% hatched wind probabilities east
across our CWA in the newest Day 1 Outlook, prompting an expansion
of the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) further eastward into northwest
Ohio. Scattered supercells/clusters of storms will develop across
eastern Iowa this afternoon, and as those storms propagate
eastward, they will become organized into a well defined bow-
echo/MCS. This large linear complex of strengthening severe
storms will race along the highest theta-e axis through eastern
IA, northern IL, and into northern IN. Strong buoyancy,
increasing vertical shear (30 to 35 kts), and favorable
thermodynamics in place, which may result in a high impact damaging
wind event overnight. Given that the ground is still so
saturated from recent rain, especially in northwest Indiana,
even wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will take down trees and
powerlines. With damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70+ mph expected,
widespread wind damage is possible. With MLCAPE of 3000 to 5000
J/kg across much of the Enhanced Risk, this bow-echo could
sustain itself well after dark and maintain a widespread swath
of wind damage (as seen in members of the HREF ensemble) into
our CWA. A derecho is possible from eastern Iowa to northern
Indiana. Widespread damaging winds 60 to 75 mph are likely
overnight, with significant gusts over 75 mph possible. A few
tornadoes are possible as well, especially in the Enhanced Risk
area, given the expansion of the 5% tornado risk. There will be
ample 0-1 km shear of 25 to 35 kts to work with and very strong
0-3 km SRH between 200 to 250 m2/s2. Stay weather aware tonight
and have multiple ways to receive warnings that will wake you
up!!
In addition to the severe threat overnight, we are growing
increasingly concerned with the flash flood threat overnight as
well. Soundings depict extreme PWATs 2 to 2.25", a very deep
warm cloud layer of up to 15,000 ft, and a favorable vertical
CAPE profile. Thus, warm rain processes will be incredibly
efficient overnight, especially if the bow-echo backbuilds,
resulting in potentially extreme rainfall rates in excess of
2-3" per hour. Given that many locations in the Wabash and St
Joseph river basins have accumulated 5 to 8+ inches of rain in
the past week, the ground is saturated and river levels are
still somewhat high. Instances of scattered flash flooding will
be most common in the Flood Watch that in effect for along and
west of the US 31 corridor.
An upper level trough will pivot through the Great Lakes on Tuesday,
resulting in chances for storms ahead of and along a cold front. The
best chances for rain/storms will be along and south of the US 24
corridor in the afternoon and evening Tuesday. There is a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather.
A continental, cooler airmass from Canada will sink south midweek,
resulting in seasonable highs in the 70s, a stark decrease in
humidity, and dry conditions. It will be a nice change of pace
compared to the active weather we have dealt with the past few
days!
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
General VFR expected this period. Developing upstream convection
will organize further as intense clustering/compositing leads to
upscale growth into a mature bow echo early this evening over
nrn-northeast IL. This will progress fairly rapidly ewd late
evening into early overnight across the terminals with greater
impacts expected invof KSBN.
Otherwise cold frontal zone will sag across the terminals
tomorrow and may support another round of storms especially
invof KFWA in the aftn assuming sufficient destabilization
occurs within modifying residual outflow. Will defer that
potential mention until later given uncertainty.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for INZ005>008-012>015-017-
020-022-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...None.
MI...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...THazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 447 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 INZ005>008-012>015-017-020-022-103-104-116-203-204-216-MIZ078>081- 177-277-160900- Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN- Whitley-White-Cass IN-Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN- Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN- Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale- Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien- 447 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 /347 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Another round of thunderstorms expected tonight. Flooding and damaging winds look likely with isolate tornadoes possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. There is a chance for additional thunderstorms on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed tonight. INZ009-018-023>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-160900- De Kalb-Allen IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford- Jay-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert- Allen OH- 447 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Another round of thunderstorms expected tonight. Flooding and damaging winds look likely with isolate tornadoes possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a chance for additional thunderstorms on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed tonight. LMZ043-046-160900- New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI- 447 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of southeastern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Another round of thunderstorms expected tonight. Wind gusts in excess of 50 knots and frequent lightning are likely. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There are additional thunderstorms chances on Tuesday.
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 39 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:37 UTC.
49 thunderstorm wind, 3 tornado, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Local media confirms a small engine shop was destroyed by fire, likely caused by a lightning strike.
A storm damage survey confirmed that a tornado developed south of Waterford. A private property sustained widespread and severe tree damage with several hundred|mixed hardwood and softwood trees uprooted and/or snapped on this |20 acre property. Another concentrated area of significant tree damage |was noted between Forrester Rd and Tiffany Dr. Many homes and outbuildings|sustained minor to moderate damage from tree fall along this track. This |tornado continued east but quickly weakened and ended west of Johnson Rd |as a larger scale microburst overtook the tornado.
Large tree down onto a car.
Powerlines down in and around Waterford. Power outages ongoing.
Large tree down blocking E Hutchinson Rd.
Police reports a large tree is down, blocking Tamarack Rd.
Emergency Manager reports four trees down with powerlines down on Nutmeg, south of Menominee Elementary School.
Powerlines are down on US 6 in La Paz. All lanes closed.
Large tree limbs down.
Large limbs down on Kenilworth Rd in Argos.
Large tree and smaller limbs down at Ironwood Road and 20C.
Tree down blocking SR 17 near the Plymouth Golf Course.
A survey of damage confirmed a brief tornado, embedded with a larger area of damaging winds. The tornado touched down southwest of the intersection of 19th Rd and Birch Rd, then moved northeast. Damage was confined to several trees being snapped or uprooted in the area.
Large tree down onto a home in Nappanee.
Large tree down at a residence.
Three large evergreen trees are down and power outages reported.
Tree uprooted on east 11th street.
Trees and powerlines down near the Goshen Municipal Airport.
Loss of siding to a home in Mishawaka. Photo on Facebook.
Tree down at 600 E and Logansport Rd.
Numerous trees and power lines down in an around Logansport. Locations include, 1225 S 800 E, High Street at Roselawn and 22nd, 250E and 125 N.
Tree down 3 miles NNW Ankola.
A survey of damage confirmed a brief tornado, embedded within an area of straight line wind damage. The tornado touched down southeast of Hawthorne Elementary School and proceeded quickly east-southeast. Numerous trees were uprooted, partially due to the wet ground conditions, as well as several snapped tree limbs and trunks. The greatest damage occurred in the area of Mather Ave, between Carlton Ave and Naomi St.
Trees down at Lake Street. Power is out over eastern Warsaw.
Report on Twitter of numerous trees and limbs down in the Brookside Mobile Home park.
Tree down near 800 E and 100 N.
Photo on Twitter of a large barn with one wall collapsed and a partial roof collapse. Trusses are still standing on one-quarter of the roof. Barn door in the photo is open or missing.
Large tree down onto a house.
Multiple trees down.
Several large trees uprooted on Ogden Point road. A few boat lifts damaged too.
Powerlines down in Peru.
Tree down on Grace street between Depot and Main st.
Tree down onto a home in Loon Lake.
Large tree down onto powerlines. Nearly landed on a house.
Tree down at Grace Street between Depot and Main street.
Photos on Twitter of numerous large branches down and a couple of trees down near Cree Lake.
Tree down on Grayston Ave.
Tree down on 300W in Lancaster.
Large tree limbs down near Illinois Road between Scott and Hadley.
Powerlines down.
Photos of tree limbs and powerlines down at the intersection of W State and Sherman.
Tree down on S. Calhoun and Tillman Roads. Tree is 10-12 inches in diameter and healthy.
Large tree uprooted on Smith Street.
Tree limbs and power lines down.
Trained spotter reports 62 mph wind gust.
Tree down on Joe Wheeler St, between Broad and W Maumee.
Tree down on 600 W and 100 N.
Power lines down on Fox Lake Road.
Photo on Twitter shows a large tree down onto a covered porch. Porch roof collapsed.
State police report a semi truck driver was injured when a tree fell onto the cab of the truck.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Indiana, 2024Warnings in Indiana, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1203994, 1203786, 1203800, 1203801, 1204004, 1204006, 1203803, 1203805, 1203798, 1203802, 1203804, 1203806, 1203787, 1203795, 1203794, 1204008, 1204009, 1203793, 1204005, 1203981, 1203982, 1203796, 1203983, 1203797, 1203788, 1203999, 1203792, 1203984, 1203791, 1203995, 1203997, 1203998, 1204000, 1203980, 1203790, 1204015, 1204014, 1203985, 1204003, 1203976, and more.