Avalanche in Colorado, February 23, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
929 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will continue through this evening across
  the northern and central Colorado mountains, bringing minor
  additional accumulations.

- Dry weather returns Friday into the weekend with temperatures
  warming to above normal levels.

- The next winter storm is expected to arrive Sunday night and
  impact much of the forecast area through the middle of next
  week. Significant mountain snowfall is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2024

Low clouds and showers are still hanging on across northwest
Colorado as northwest orographics combined with some embedded
vort maxes and steep lapse rates are contributing to scattered
convective shower activity. Rates remain light though as forcing
is weak as this latest disturbance exits to the east. Roads are
wet in most areas with exception of the very top of Rabbit Ears
Pass that is still seeing some low visibility in light snow and
fog but roadways aren't as snowpacked as they were due to some
periods of sun. Expect this convective shower activity to linger
through the afternoon, tapering off this evening with maybe an
additional 1 to 3 inches of snow at the higher peaks of the Park
and Elkheads.

A ridge of high pressure will broaden across the Great Basin and
slide eastward over the western slope tonight into Friday,
providing for clearing skies and warming temperatures. The
subtropical jet will lay across SoCal into northern Arizona and
northern New Mexico by Friday afternoon but should further
amplify by Friday night into the weekend, lifting northward
across central Nevada, Utah and Colorado, which should further
contribute to a warming trend heading into the weekend. We
should see max temperatures on Friday heading north of the 5
degrees above normal mark to start off this weekend's warming
trend with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. High clouds
increase from the south Friday evening due to the lifting of
this subtropical jet, but conditions remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2024

Saturday has eastern Utah and Western Colorado under a
northwesterly flow with ridging over the Great Basin and a
broad longwave trough over the Eastern US. Ridging will move
over the region Saturday and Sunday, providing for mostly sunny
skies and warming temperatures from 5 degrees above normal
Saturday to almost 10 degrees above normal by Sunday. The cutoff
low continues to drift south off the West Coast and will get
sheared into an open wave Sunday night into Monday by the
subtropical jet, moving onshore Monday night to meet up with the
trough descending down through the Pacific Northwest. Deep
moisture from an AR moves up from the southwest into the region
with current forecast of IVT's as high as 500 kg/m/s Monday into
Tuesday which is up significantly from earlier runs. This is a
point to watch as should these higher IVT's be accurate, we
could expect to see storm total QPF exceeding three inches
across most of the mountain areas with snow accumulations over
three feet. The trough that descends down through the Pacific
Northwest starts Saturday as a closed low over Alaska, moving
down over the Yukon into British Columbia Sunday and continues
Monday into the Pacific Northwest as an open shortwave. The
shortwave passes northwest to southeast across the region
Tuesday with an associated cold front that will kick off
widespread showers across eastern Utah and Western Colorado and
heavy snow showers through the mountains. This system brings
additional moisture with it from a second AR moving in through
the Oregon gap that will enhance snow totals across the northern
mountains. Cold, dry air moves in behind the front with H7
temps falling 12-15C pushing snow levels to the floor of the
lower valleys. With residual moisture in the area, look for snow
showers to continue into overnight Tuesday into Wednesday
mostly over the mountains, but a few light snow showers may
bring a dusting of snow in the Grand Valley by Wednesday
morning. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on the timing
and moisture available with this system, but it is looking to
be a significant storm for the region. Stay tuned for updates
and possible headlines coming out in the next couple days.

Temperatures will be about five degrees above normal Saturday,
warming to about ten degrees above normal Sunday and Monday. With
the showers Tuesday temperatures will run about normal, cooling to
about ten degrees below normal behind the cold front. By Wednesday
the temperatures could fall yet another five to ten degrees as the
cold air continues to pour into the region. A ridge builds in over
the Western States late Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures
returning to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 928 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2024

Mid clouds remained banked up against some of the north facing
hills leaving ILS conditions in place at KASE. Otherwise VFR and
light winds will prevail over the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
253 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2024

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-231000-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
253 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Snow showers will linger across the central and northern Colorado
mountains today before tapering off tonight. Additional minor
snowfall accumulations up to a few inches can be expected. Quiet
weather is in store elsewhere.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Quiet weather is expected through the weekend with high pressure
in control. The next winter storm is expected to arrive Sunday
night and impact much of the forecast area through the middle of
next week. Significant mountain snowfall is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.