High Wind in California, March 28, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
940 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty south to southwest winds will occur over
much of the region today and Friday and linger into Saturday in
Mohave County ahead of a large low pressure system moving down the
West Coast. The system will bring widespread precipitation across
our region Saturday, followed by showery weather Sunday and Monday
and a drying and warming trend going into the middle of next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Gusty southwest winds have been occurring this morning
with localized gusts over 40 mph around and near the Spring
Mountains due to some downslope enhancement. Gusts over 40 mph will
become more widespread this afternoon and evening as a shortwave
trough moves over our region as it round the base of the Pacific
Northwest Low. Wind Advisories remain unchanged, but may need to be
extend/expand through Friday as recent high res models indicate good
potential for gusts over 40 mph again Friday afternoon and even into
Saturday across northwest Arizona. Automated snow sensors in the
Eastern Sierra slopes above 9000 feet also reported 3-5" of new snow
overnight and snow will end by about noon up there. No immediate
changes needed. -Adair
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1229 AM PDT

.SHORT TERM...through tonight. Midnight satellite loop showed
complex low pressure system spinning off the Washington coast and a
jet streak coming through the Aleutians which will eventually cause
this low to dig south into our area. Over our area, skies were
partly cloudy. Surface obs showed increasing south to west winds and
temperatures several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago thanks to the
winds and clouds. As noted by previous shifts, the strongest winds
were affecting the eastern slopes of the Sierra and into parts of
the Owens Valley, as well as the higher elevations of the Spring
Mountains. Winds will continue to increase in these areas and also
spill down into the lower elevations as daytime heating leads to
coupling. Thus, the Wind Advisories for this afternoon into tonight
look good. Snow amounts in the Sierra are still likely to remain
below Advisory criteria today, but the next system on Friday night
and Saturday is worth watching. More on that one in the long term
section.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will begin to amplify Friday as a strong
trough deepens off the West Coast. This trough is still poised to
bring fairly widespread wet weather to the region over the weekend
as the trough closes off and bottoms out off the coast of southern
California. Precipitation will be on the increase in the Sierra as
early as Friday afternoon and evening, with chances increasing and
spreading east Saturday. As mentioned in the previous discussions,
the best window for widespread precipitation accumulations is in the
Saturday morning through Saturday night period as an impressive
moisture plume is pulled up from the Eastern Pacific. Additionally,
with snow levels hovering in the 6000 foot range, some locally heavy
late season snow accumulations are looking probable in the Sierra
and  Spring Mountains, with NBM probabilities exceeding 70% for 8
inches of snow in the Lee and Kyle Canyon areas. With this in mind,
hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for Saturday afternoon through Saturday
night. While the main moisture plume will shift east Saturday, a
broad upper low will remain overhead through Monday afternoon. The
cold air aloft and lingering moisture will keep diurnally enhanced
shower activity going into Monday evening. In addition to the
widespread precipitation chances, temperatures will trend several
degrees cooler than normal.

More stable conditions will begin to return Tuesday though there is
uncertainty into how quickly the remnant upper level low moves
eastward. As such, at least some low chances for showers will
persist into Tuesday afternoon, especially across the higher
terrain, along with continued cooler than normal temperatures.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest breezes persist through the
morning hours, ramping up after sunrise. The likelihood of 25+ knot
gusts grows to over 50% by 15z and remains 50-90% through 06z
tonight. Peak wind gusts up to 40 knots. Southwest breezes expected
to weaken between 05z-10z, but remain elevated (10+ knots) through
the night. Gusty conditions resume after daybreak on Friday. No
impacts from cloud cover expected as bases remain aoa 15kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty southwest winds expected across the area today,
with gusts generally in the 20-35 knot range, possibly up to 40
knots at KDAG and the Las Vegas Valley sites. Moderate to severe
turbulence possible near and east of mountain peaks. At KBIH,
vicinity showers linger through the morning hours, with a 10% chance
of spilling over the Sierra and reaching the airport. Periods of
CIGs down to 8kft possible during this time. For the rest of the
area, dry conditions and cloud bases aoa 15kft.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Outler/Morgan
AVIATION...Woods

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