High Wind in California, March 23, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
152 PM PDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Strong southwest winds will occur across much of the
area today, lingering through Sunday in San Bernardino County.
Expect scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder through
Sunday, with light rain amounts in the valleys and light snow
accumulations in the mountains. Sunday will be the coolest day for
most of the region, with temperatures warming back to late March
averages by the middle of the upcoming week. As March comes to a
close next weekend, a deep area of low pressure will usher in more
unsettled weather.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Wind event was well underway as
of midday, with gusts over 40 mph occurring at quite a few stations,
mostly in Nye and Clark counties. Winds should slowly decrease from
north to south tonight, and strong winds tomorrow should be limited
to the Barstow and Morongo Basin regions. Area radars showed
scattered light returns. One area over far southwest Clark County
was slowly increasing, where visible satellite loop suggested that a
northeastward-propagating trapped lee wave had intersected a
standing wave. Surface dewpoint depressions were still around 30F in
this area, so any rain reaching the ground should be light. Farther
north, lightning detection sensors had noted a handful of flashes
and strikes within about a 50 mile radius of Tonopah. Overnight,
heights will continue to fall as the trough draws closer, allowing
lifted indices to hover around zero, supporting scattered showers
and perhaps even a thunderstorm or two. There will be conflicting
factors on Sunday as the trough axis passes by, but cold temps aloft
keep lifted indices neutral to slightly negative and cyclonically
curved flow remains overhead. Thunder chances would most likely be
limited to Mohave County and adjacent areas of Lincoln and Clark
counties, with shower chances primarily on the higher terrain
elsewhere. High temperatures came down several degrees today from
yesterday, and should come down another five to ten degrees Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.

Active pattern expected through the long term period as a series of
weather systems move through the region, bringing cooler than normal
conditions along with periods of gusty winds and mainly mountain
rain and snow showers.  As the weekends trough shifts east on
Monday, a northwesterly flow aloft will take hold Monday and Tuesday
with dry conditions for most of the lower elevations, though some
low chances for showers will persist across the southern Great Basin
and Northwest Arizona with some residual moisture and instability
present.  In the post frontal environment temperatures will remain
cooler than normal both days as well.

By Wednesday, low amplitude shortwave ridge will begin to shift into
the Southwestern states allowing for a brief increase in regional
heights and allowing surface temperatures to climb close to seasonal
normals, though it will likely remain just a touch on the cool side.
Meanwhile, a deepening trough will take shape off the Pacific
Northwest Coast that will bring increasingly gusty winds to the area
for the later half of the week along with cooling temperatures.
Ensemble guidance is struggling with the details of this second
trough, with some members keeping the trough more progressive while
others develop a stronger and deeper trough that digs into the
Southwestern US over the weekend. Regardless of the exact evolution,
confidence is fairly high in a continuation of cool and unsettled
weather for the second half of the week, which may last into the
weekend. Depending on how far south the trough digs into the region,
some shower activity will be a possibility as well. Stay tuned.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty southwest winds will continue
through the afternoon with occasional gusts to 40kts possible
through 02Z.  Showers are also possible through late afternoon,
mainly over the higher terrain west and south of the field.  The
chance of any shower activity reaching the field is low, but if it
was locally enhanced winds from the direction of the showers would
be possible. CIGs should remain above 10kft AGL at the field, but
lower clouds can be expected near any showers, resulting in mountain
obscuration. Winds will diminish some overnight, but there is now
only a 30% chance of speeds falling below 10kts.  Northwest winds of
less than 20kts should develop by late morning tomorrow and continue
through the remainder of the day.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty west to southwest winds are forecast for all
terminals into this evening.  A few showers will also be possible
over southern Nevada and southeast California, although most of the
precipitation should remain over or near areas of higher terrain.
Winds will gradually decrease to less than 20kts overnight and
Sunday for most areas except the western Mojave Desert, including
KDAG, where gusty west winds to 35kts will continue into Sunday
afternoon. CIGs should generally remain above 10kft AGL at most
terminals, although lower bases are possible near showers, resulting
in mountain obscuration along the Sierra and higher elevations in
southern Nevada.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Planz

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter