A decaying MCS/MCV moved through the Mid-South during the overnight/early morning hours of May 22. A slow moving cold front was stretched over the Missouri Bootheel and moisture surged northward allowing for plentiful instability.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A decaying MCS/MCV moved through the Mid-South during the overnight/early morning hours of May 22. A slow moving cold front was stretched over the Missouri Bootheel and moisture surged northward allowing for plentiful instability. This instability collided with remnant outflow boundaries from previous convection. Peak diurnal heating hours, moisture, and enough lift caused damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding across northeast Arkansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 11:29 AM CST, 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1229 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places a surface low over western Ontario with a cold front extending south back into Indiana and into portions of southeast Missouri, northwest Arkansas, and back into the Red River Valley. GOES Satellite/Regional WSR-88D radar trends show an MCS over west Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. A few elevated showers and a thunderstorm developed over west Tennessee over the past couple hours and have since diminished. As of 10 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Short-term models, especially the CAMs have struggled with the overall evolution of convective activity across the Mid-South into this evening. Nonetheless, a shortwave trough rotating through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys combined with an unstable atmosphere is expected to result in showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South, especially this afternoon and evening. Favorable upper-level divergence produced by the right entrance region of a 105 kt 250 mb jet streak, surface-based CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 35-45 kts, and precipitable water values approaching 1.7 inches suggest a potential for organized severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary severe weather threat and heavy rainfall. Overall forecast is in good shape but will make adjustments to rain chances to reflect current short-term trends. CJC && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Active weather will persist for most of the forecast period. Strong to severe storms are possible for the next several days. A Slight Risk is in place for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail this afternoon. Several systems will cross the region for the remainder of this week that will also threaten damaging winds and large hail. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 A few lingering showers and storms are depicted on KNQA radar as of 3 AM with continuous signs of weakening. The remnants of any of this convection will help a MCS/MCV develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Southwesterly flow will surge a moisture plume and bring dewpoints into the 70s this morning. Deterministic soundings are indicative of a damaging wind and large hail as the primary threats this afternoon into evening. Inverted V soundings will provide excellent mixing with around 50kts of effective shear. Unstable lapse rates (~8 C/km) through the column with MLCAPE ~2500 J/kg and SHIP values >1 may bring large, to very large hail. On a positive note, SRH values are low (<100 m^2/s^2) which keeps the tornadic threat below the damaging wind and hail threat. PWs are in the 90th percentile or higher, meaning locally heavy rainfall is possible, particularly with any strong updrafts could lead to localized flooding. Current QPF values are highest for todays set of storms in the Mississippi Delta region. This round of convective activity will be aided by diurnal heating and look to fire up this afternoon ~1pm. Depending on where remnant outflow boundaries lie from overnight convection, this could change our severe weather outlook for today, hence the removal of the Enhanced to a Slight Risk. The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall tomorrow evening before lifting north as a warm front by Thursday evening. As a result of this, showers and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast. Another Slight Risk for severe weather is in place for Thursday with a Marginal Risk for Friday. The placement of the LLJ will keep an active weather pattern across the Mid-South likely until Tuesday as series of systems will cross the region. While it will not rain or thunderstorm the entire forecast period, QPF continues to trend upwards. QPF for the next 7 days of 2-6" across the area. Memphis is currently in an area of 5" for the next 7 days. While it is a bit early for specifics, SPC has highlighted at least a 15% chance of severe weather on Sunday. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Timing of convective impacts remains the primary concern this period as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. As of 1730Z, storms continue to pop up and impact all sites except for TUP. This initial round of storms should persist into early evening, with another round approaching MEM shortly after sunset. Given uncertainty of precipitation impacts overnight, kept PROB30 groups in at all sites for TSRA. Showers and storms will remain possible through the end of the period. Otherwise, winds will be mainly out of the south with VFR CIGs anticipated. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...ANS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1156 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
MOZ115-TNZ001-002-221730-
Pemiscot MO-Lake TN-Obion TN-
1156 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PEMISCOT...
NORTHWESTERN OBION AND LAKE COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...
At 1156 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ridgely, or near Reelfoot Lake State Park, moving northeast at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Reelfoot Lake State Park, Tiptonville, Ridgely, Clayton, Cottonwood
Grove, Hornbeak, Samburg, Wynnburg, Wright, Cronanville, Roneys
Store, Sunkist Beach, Blue Bank, Proctor City, Fremont, Madie, Spout
Springs, Mooring, Walnut Log, and Grays Camp.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southeastern Missouri...and west Tennessee.
&&
LAT...LON 3639 8912 3621 8953 3631 8966 3639 8959
3634 8954 3635 8952 3638 8951 3643 8955
3650 8949 3647 8949 3646 8947 3647 8944
3650 8942 3651 8928
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 236DEG 27KT 3631 8952
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1200 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
ARZ035-221730-
Cross AR-
1200 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN CROSS COUNTY THROUGH
1230 PM CDT...
At 1200 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fair Oaks, or 12 miles west of Wynne, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Wynne, Cherry Valley, Hickory Ridge, Fair Oaks, Vanndale, Hydrick,
Tilton, Brushy Lake, McElroy, Mersman, Fair Field, Ellis Chapel, and
Hamlin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
eastern Arkansas.
&&
LAT...LON 3542 9104 3545 9087 3545 9071 3520 9076
3515 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 258DEG 19KT 3529 9099
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1224 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
TNZ021-022-221800-
Carroll TN-Benton TN-
1224 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BENTON AND
NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...
At 1223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bruceton, or near Huntingdon, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Huntingdon, Camden, New Johnsonville, Bruceton, Hollow Rock, Hillard,
Garretsburg, Palmer Shelter, and Buena Vista.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west Tennessee.
&&
LAT...LON 3603 8800 3600 8800 3598 8802 3595 8802
3590 8841 3603 8844 3618 8806 3604 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 247DEG 23KT 3601 8831
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1229 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
TNZ002-221800-
Obion TN-
1229 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OBION COUNTY THROUGH 100
PM CDT...
At 1228 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Troy, or 10 miles east of Reelfoot Lake State Park, moving east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Union City, Troy, Obion, Hornbeak, Woodland Mills, Rives, Glass, Old
Fremont, Gibbs, Moffatt, Shaffner, Roneys Store, Wolverine, Lassiter
Corner, McCutchen Heights, Jacksonville, and Fremont.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west Tennessee.
&&
LAT...LON 3632 8895 3630 8896 3623 8929 3636 8938
3650 8908 3650 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 248DEG 24KT 3633 8924
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MJPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1235 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1220 PM Hail 2 NNW Ellendale 35.26N 89.85W
05/22/2024 M0.75 Inch Shelby TN Public
Penny-sized hail reported near Rivercrest
Elementary.
&&
MJThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 100 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:46 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind, 5 hail, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Utility poles downed along Highway 349.
Golf ball sized hail fell at Hobby Lobby in Jonesboro.
Numerous trees were damaged as well as minor damage to homes and businesses across Jonesboro.
Jonesboro Municipal Airport ASOS reported.
Street flooding photos from the Fire Dept were seen on social media. Water covering residential roads and parking lots.
Flash Flooding throughout Harrisburg resulted in multiple road closures.
Trees and powerlines downed north of Caraway.
Roof partially peeled off of a retail building on Chestnut Street.
Power poles knocked down between Brickeys and Marianna.
Large tree uprooted, heavy farm machinery overturned, and damage to a metal outbuilding.
Powerlines down near Carter Drive in Marion.
Eight power poles on U.S. 61 between Osceola and Blytheville were knocked down.
Multiple downed trees in the Cypert community near County Road 606 and Highway 318.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1182107, 1182078, 1182079, 1182083, 1182112, 1182095, 1182081, 1182069, 1182071, 1182109, 1182088, 1182121, 1182099, 1182101, 1182103, 1182106, 1182116.