Heat in Arkansas, August 5 to 6, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
943 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

Updated forecast to include Lee County, Arkansas in the Heat
Advisory through 8PM this evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track.

ANS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

Hot and humid conditions return today and will stick around for
the next few days. A Heat Advisory is in effect today for portions
of north Mississippi for heat indices 105 degrees or higher.
Temperatures climb back down late this week following a cold
front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

A few observation sites are reporting patchy fog this morning,
supported by the calm conditions and low dewpoint depressions.
This patchy fog development can be expected for the next few
nights, especially in rural areas near bodies of water. After
sunrise today, heat comes back with a vengeance as an upper level
ridge begins to overtake the central Gulf Coast. Forecast heat
indices are set to surge back into the triple digits this
afternoon, especially for our southern tier of counties in
Mississippi (and the Delta). As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect
for 105+F heat indices in these areas. We may need very similar
heat headlines tomorrow, but there is still a bit of uncertainty
regarding dewpoints so will let subsequent shifts make the final
call.

A cold front looks to approach the Mid-South on Wednesday morning,
which will most likely create a fairly stark heat and humidity
gradient from north to south depending on how the frontal position
correlates with afternoon heating. Hot, moist air may get trapped
as far north as the TN/MS state line as we reach peak heating
hours on Wednesday. Keep an eye out for another, likely final,
round of heat headlines this week. Heat Advisory is looking like a
given at this point but we may even need an Excessive Heat Warning
for the MS Delta for 110+F heat indices. Relief follows shortly
thereafter when the front clears the area and ushers in a far less
oppressive airmass.

Mid range guidance continues to suggest a generally eastward
track for the remnants of Hurricane Debby mid to late week, but a
few individual members of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles do still
want to retrograde the system back toward the TN River Valley on
Friday. It's also worth noting that the deterministic GFS is the
most aggressive on this westward jog and is certainly the outlier.
Even if this does happen, a fairly strong surface high will be in
place over the Mid-South by then and should act as a barrier for
any mentionable moisture that would translate into rain chances. A
cool, dry airmass at the surface with quasi-zonal flow aloft will
create much more pleasant conditions late this week into the
weekend. Highs may not even get above 90 degrees for much of the
area on Saturday.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

VFR conditions continue. Generally NE winds, becoming NW near the
end of the current TAF period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010>012-
     020>024.

TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CMA