Strong to severe thunderstorms developed southeast across eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas during the morning and afternoon of the 18th. These thunderstorms weakened before moving into northwestern Arkansas, but additional thunderstorms developed over northwestern Arkansas along the outflow boundary that pushed out from these decaying thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TSA wrote it up.
Strong to severe thunderstorms developed southeast across eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas during the morning and afternoon of the 18th. These thunderstorms weakened before moving into northwestern Arkansas, but additional thunderstorms developed over northwestern Arkansas along the outflow boundary that pushed out from these decaying thunderstorms. The atmosphere over northwestern Arkansas became very unstable during the late afternoon and early evening, which enable some of these storms to produce large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 18, 1:29 PM CST, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
229 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Meso-analysis indicates axis of strong instability generally along
and N of I-40 in northeast OK and northwest AR this afternoon,
south of a frontal boundary pushing southwest through central MO.
A persistent cluster of storms continues to move across northeast
KS and appears to be tied to gradient in 850mb moisture. There
remains some potential for this cluster to hold together as it
continues to ride this boundary southeast, possibly into northwest
AR or even extreme northeast OK by late this afternoon or early
evening. Meanwhile isolated storms have developed within the
sfc instability axis north of the Tulsa metro. Both cases warrant
chance of thunderstorms into the evening, with an attendant
severe weather threat given the instability and moderate deep
layer shear.
Later tonight, most models keep the frontal zone active as it
continues to push southwest. Additional storms developing in this
frontal zone are still expected to move into western AR and at
least parts of northeast OK after midnight. For the most part,
this activity will remain elevated on the cooler side of the
front, but still will be adequate instability and shear for at
least a limited severe threat through tonight. Should note that
neither situation is a high confidence solution, but severe threat
is present both into this evening and again later tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Scattered convection could linger through the morning across
mainly NW AR, otherwise the front will continue its back-door
path across much of the area bringing notably less humid and
slightly cooler air into all but the far southeast portion of OK.
This area will see one more day of heat, and an advisory will be
issued for a few counties for Monday. After that we get a break
from heat headlines for several days it would appear.
As the area remains on the eastern side of the upper ridge,
nocturnal storm chances may persist another day or two but with a
down-turn in coverage and intensity. Some signal remains for a
few elevated showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday and have
maintained a small chance then. Otherwise a dry forecast with
upper ridge becoming centered more overhead late in the week, but
with a surface high over much of the eastern CONUS at least
keeping humidity levels reasonable a bit longer.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Challenging convective forecast today, with a couple of different
windows for thunderstorm impacts at all sites except for MLC
through the period. Confidence is highest in isolated development
mid to late afternoon in NW AR, and as such, will carry a VCTS
mention at FYV/XNA/ROG into early evening, with expected coverage
precluding inclusion of category impacts at this point. Confidence
is also fairly high that thunderstorms will expand late
tonight/early Monday morning across northwest Arkansas, with
coverage supporting a higher likelihood of category impacts. Will
maintain the existing PROB30 groups, although will delay their
onset by a couple of hours. Something to be watched is how
thunderstorms along the NE/KS border trend as they move southward
and approach northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this
afternoon and evening. There is a low chance for both category and
wind impacts if these storms intensify and organize before moving
into the area, with FYV/XNA/ROG most at risk. Uncertainty is high
enough that this scenario will not be included in the TAFs at this
time but if confidence increases here, will amend the relevant
TAFs for it. Winds will shift to an easterly direction late in the
period behind a cold front, but speeds should remain light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 90 70 87 / 20 10 20 20
FSM 75 90 72 88 / 30 10 10 20
MLC 75 95 73 90 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 71 89 66 85 / 30 10 20 20
FYV 69 88 65 85 / 60 20 10 20
BYV 68 86 62 83 / 50 30 10 10
MKO 74 89 70 85 / 20 10 10 20
MIO 68 87 65 84 / 50 20 20 20
F10 74 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10
HHW 76 99 75 91 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ057-058-063-069.
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
053>056-059>062-064>068-070>076.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-073.
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
020-029.
&&
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 456 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191015- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 456 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...Limited. AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest and West Central Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. DANGEROUS HEAT. RISK...Critical. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest and West Central Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... The combination of heat and humidity have lead to dangerously high heat across the region this afternoon, with many locations experiencing heat indices in excess of 110 degrees from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. A boundary currently moving through northwest Arkansas and far northeast Oklahoma will also serve as the focus for a few thunderstorms that will be possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be severe, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat through the evening. Otherwise, slightly cooler and drier air will follow the boundary tonight bringing an end to the excessive heat for most of the area for a few days. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential. TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...No Hazards. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Dangerous heat may persist into Monday across far southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, relatively cooler temperatures are expected by early in the work week behind Sunday's cold front and as the upper ridge shifts westward away from the region. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
553 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
ARZ001-010-182330-
Benton AR-Washington AR-
553 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BENTON AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...
At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Bentonville, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
is possible.
Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville... Springdale...
Rogers... Bentonville...
Siloam Springs... Bella Vista...
Lowell... Farmington...
Pea Ridge... Gentry...
Tontitown... Cave Springs...
Decatur... Highfill...
Garfield... Springtown...
Northwest Arkansas Regional Air...Hobbs State Park...
War Eagle... Miller...
This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 65 and 93.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas.
&&
LAT...LON 3623 9389 3619 9390 3600 9446 3638 9455
3650 9401 3628 9387 3624 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 323DEG 22KT 3636 9429
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
ARZ010-OKZ063-069-182330-
Washington AR-Adair OK-Delaware OK-
558 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...SOUTH
CENTRAL DELAWARE AND NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...
At 558 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
east of Scraper, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
is possible.
Locations in or near the path include...
Stilwell... Lincoln...
Westville... Watts...
Adair State Park... Christie...
Cincinnati... Baron...
Maryetta... Ballard...
Summers... Natural Falls State Park...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas.
&&
LAT...LON 3622 9469 3596 9437 3582 9464 3606 9480
3616 9480 3616 9481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 323DEG 22KT 3611 9474
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHThe Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:03 UTC.
14 thunderstorm wind, 5 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
The ASOS at the Northwest Arkansas National Airport (XNA) measured 64 mph thunderstorm wind gusts.
The AWOS at the Springdale Municipal Airport measured 59 mph thunderstorm wind gusts.
Ping pong ball size hail damaged vehicles and homes.
The ASOS at Drake Field measured 58 mph thunderstorm wind gusts.
Strong thunderstorm wind blew down trees.
Strong thunderstorm wind blew down trees, and damaged street signs.
Strong thunderstorm wind blew down several trees.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated to 60 mph.
Strong thunderstorm wind blew down numerous trees.
Strong thunderstorm wind blew down numerous trees.
Strong thunderstorm wind blew down numerous trees.
Strong thunderstorm wind blew down numerous trees.
Strong thunderstorm wind blew down power lines.
Strong thunderstorm wind blew down trees onto Shaver Road.
Strong thunderstorm wind blew down power lines.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1208292, 1208931, 1208934, 1208939, 1208930, 1208936, 1208937, 1208938, 1208949, 1208932, 1208933, 1208935, 1208944, 1208945, 1208947, 1208940, 1208941, 1208942, 1208943.