Excessive Heat in Arkansas, August 14 to 18, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1021 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Mostly clear skies are present across the area, and this should
remain the case through this evening. A very warm airmass is in
place with high temperatures expected to climb into the mid to
upper 90s. Additionally, elevated moisture levels will result in
very high heat indices of 105-115F across the forecast area.
Accordingly, Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are in
effect for all portions of the CWA. Breezy southerly winds will
continue through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The heat persists on Thursday. However, there will some potential
for limited relief in the form of isolated to scattered showers/storms
Thursday afternoon/evening as a weak frontal boundary moves into northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A few of these storms could be strong
to severe with damaging winds the main concern.

Above normal temperatures are set to continue into early next week as
an upper level ridge amplifies over the Plains. There could be some
shower/storm activity over the weekend on the eastern periphery of the
building high. Heat headlines will likely be needed across portions of
the area through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. South
winds will gust to near 20 knots at times today at the northeast
Oklahoma sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  79  98  75 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   99  77  99  78 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   98  78  98  77 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   99  76  97  71 /   0  10  30  30
FYV   94  75  96  74 /  10   0  20  30
BYV   95  75  97  73 /  10   0  20  30
MKO   96  77  97  75 /   0   0  20  20
MIO   96  75  97  71 /  10  10  30  30
F10   98  78  99  75 /   0   0  20  20
HHW   99  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     062-063-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
450 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
450 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma .
	ONSET...Late tonight.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...

Heat index values of 105 to 114 will be common across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas this afternoon as temperatures top out in the
mid 90s to around 100.

There will be a low chance of thunderstorms late tonight across portions
of northeast Oklahoma as weak frontal boundary approaches the region.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into early next week
as an upper level ridge builds across the Plains. There will be low chances
of thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night as a weak front boundary moves
into the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.