High Wind in Arizona, March 2 to 3, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1055 AM MST Sat Mar 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A passing storm system towards the north will bring
strong winds, cooler temperatures, and isolated rain and snow
showers through the weekend. Fair weather returns Monday and
Tuesday, with additional disturbances possible mid to late next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...The main story for today and Sunday will be the gusty to
strong southwest surface winds expected to become widespread
across much of northern Arizona within the next few hours. The
upper air sounding from this morning taken at the office in
Bellemont reported a 50 kt gust at around 650 mb, roughly 5000
feet above the ground. Anticipate these strong winds to eventually
mix down to the surface for this afternoon, especially given the
clear skies resulting in optimal mixing conditions. The wind
forecast for today looks in good shape with widespread gusts of
35-55 mph. Areas right along higher terrain will experience the
downsloping effect from these southwest winds with ensemble
guidance suggesting gusts as high as 65-70 mph likely through the
night. Winds shouldn't decouple as much overnight in the High
Country, continuing through Sunday afternoon.

As for precipitation chances, isolated to scattered rain and high
elevation snow showers are forecast for later this evening through
the night, mainly for areas along and north of I-40. The Kaibab
Plateau looks to see the most precipitation out of this storm with
as much as 3-6 inches of snow by Sunday morning. Besides for that
location, most of the region will remain pretty dry during this
time.

The overall forecast and current High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory
remains on track with no changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /446 AM MST/...The powerful storm system over the
west coast will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of
days. While the bulk of moisture with the storm will remain north
of Arizona, we are in line to get plenty of wind. Winds aloft this
morning have already increased to 45-55 kts at 10K ft above sea
level, and will gradually increase further through the afternoon
and evening. Most areas early this morning are seeing southwest
surface winds in the 10-20 mph range, with the favored downslope
spots already becoming quite windy. Several stations in the Doney
Park area northeast of Flagstaff have recorded 50+ mph gusts, with
40-45 mph in the downslope portions of the Kaibab Plateau. The
period of strongest winds is still expected from late this
afternoon into the overnight hours as winds aloft peak. The
downslope locations off the Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim, and
Black Mesa are likely to experience wind gusts in the 60-70 mph
range, and a High Wind Warning will be in effect from noon today
through early Sunday afternoon in these areas. The rest of
northern Arizona will be in a Wind Advisory for gusts in the 40-55
mph range today through Sunday. Some areas of blowing dust are
expected over the lower elevations of northeast Arizona including
the Little Colorado River Valley, Chinle Valley, and parts of US
89 between Flagstaff and Page. While the bulk of moisture will
remain north of the state as mentioned previously, there will be
enough for decent amounts on the Kaibab Plateau, aided by strong
upslope lift. Precipitation totals there from late this afternoon
through Sunday are projected in the 0.25-0.50" range, but only a
few hundredths from the South Rim down to Flagstaff. Snow levels
will be around 7500 feet late this afternoon falling to 5500-6500
feet later tonight into Sunday. Snowfall totals of 2-5" are
forecast for the Kaibab Plateau, and less than 1" for the South
Rim down to Flagstaff and the upper elevations of the Chuska Mtns.

Monday and Tuesday - the western US trough retreats northward,
bringing dry and much less windy weather to our region, with
temperatures warming a bit.

Wednesday through Friday - a much weaker low is forecast to move
toward the southwest US, but there is plenty of spread in the
ensembles regarding timing and track. Right now, the best chance
for any precipitation with this system is on Thursday at 20-40%,
with only minor cooling forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 02/18Z through Sunday 03/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are forecast through 00Z. After 00Z, look for
deteriorating weather, first north of KGCN with areas of MVFR/IFR
conditions in rain/snow showers, then spreading across all of
northern Arizona by 12Z Sunday. Surface winds south to southwest
at 15-30 kts gusting to 45 kts. Isolated gusts from 50-60 kts
northeast of higher terrain.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 03/18Z through Tuesday 05/18Z...Look for surface
winds at 15-30 kts gusting to 40 kts through Sunday. Areas of MVFR
and isolated IFR conditions until 15Z Monday. Any showers will be
few a far between. Decreasing winds and improving conditions
later on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Very strong southwest winds will
develop today and continue tonight through Sunday. Expect sustained
wind speeds from 15 to 30 mph and gusts from 40 to 55 mph, some
gusts over 60 mph possible lee of higher terrain. The best chances
for rain and high elevation snow showers develop tonight north of a
Prescott to Happy Jack to Window Rock line, especially over the
Kaibab Plateau.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and breezy during this period, with
afternoon southwest winds 15 to 25 mph (locally higher gusts) each
day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 1 PM MST Sunday for AZZ004-012-015-016-
039.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST Sunday for AZZ005>007-009>011-013-
014-017-040.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM MST Sunday for AZZ008.

&&

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/JJ
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff