Name: Drought in Arizona, February 1 to 29, 2024
Start: 2024-02-01T00:00
End: 2024-02-29T23:59
Location: Arizona

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

The extreme (D3) drought category continued across far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during February. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains.

While rain occurred on numerous occasions in February, with above normal rain for most of southeast Arizona, lesser rainfall occurred in the area of extreme drought near the New Mexico border. February monthly totals in the areas of extreme drought ranged from 0.5 to 2.0, with the highest amounts in the Chiricahua mountains. These amounts were generally 25 to 100 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings were in the 30th to 70th percentile ranking in most areas through February.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 1:27 PM MST, 10 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 1:27 PM MST, 10 hours 33 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
127 PM MST Wed Jan 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures will continue through Thursday with
highs topping out around 6-10 degrees above normal. A strong weather
system will bring valley rain and mountain snow Thursday night into
Friday with off and on showers lingering through Friday night. A few
showers will linger into Saturday for eastern areas. This system
will also bring much colder temperatures Friday onward. Then another
system is poised to affect the region the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies for the bulk of our forecast area
with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies primarily across Greenlee
County and along the NM border. Temperatures are quite mild to end
the month with another day of highs about 10 degrees above normal.
Increased cirroform cloudiness is noted on IR satellite across
western Arizona and that will push in by early this evening, perhaps
setting up a nice sunset for much of the region.

Changes are on the way starting Thursday as a longwave trough
approaches. Ahead of this system, we'll have one more mild day,
though temperatures won't get quite as warm as we've seen the past
few days. As the gradient tightens, breezy conditions are expected
area-wide Thursday into Thursday night with sustained winds of 15 to
25 mph and gusts up to around 35 mph.

The strongest dynamics and lift will come with a frontal band late
Thursday evening through Friday morning when the bulk of the
precipitation is expected to occur. Shower activity will then
gradually diminish Friday afternoon into evening as the negatively
tiled trough axis shifts east. Latest ensembles have backed off
slightly on QPF values with valleys now averaging 0.25"-0.75"
through Friday night with mountain liquid equivalent totals over an
inch, especially from Tucson northeastward. These QPF values aren't
expected to result in notable widespread hydrological/flooding
concerns but ponding on roads and/or localized street flooding is
expected. Much colder temperatures for the entire forecast area on
Friday as highs drop back into the upper 50s for Tucson.

Snow amounts of 6 to 12 inches are expected in the
Catalinas/Rincons, Mount Graham and the White Mountains. A Winter
Weather Advisory has been hoisted for these locales above 6500 feet
from 8 PM Thursday through 11 PM Friday. The bulk of the snow will
occur overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. Lesser snow
amounts are expected in the mountains to the south and east of
Tucson. Snow levels will start around 7500 feet Thursday, then drop
to 6000-6500 feet Friday before bottoming out around 5500-6000 feet
Saturday morning.

A few showers are expected to linger for eastern areas, mainly
across Graham/Greenlee County Saturday with most other areas drying
out. Chilly temperatures will remain through the weekend as ridging
aloft builds in resulting in sunny skies Sunday. Temperatures will
then warm early next week to slightly above normal levels Monday and
Tuesday before the next weather system moves in by Tuesday night or
Wednesday with another round of widespread valley rain and mountain
snow.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 10k ft along the AZ/NM border through 01/00Z.
Otherwise SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft increasing from the west this
afternoon becoming BKN-OVC throughout by 01/02Z, then diminishing
from west to east aft 01/06Z. SFC winds SLY/SWLY 5-10 kts into
Friday morning, becoming SWLY and increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts
30-35 kts aft 01/18Z . Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Much warmer than normal temperatures will continue
through Thursday before a major change in the weather pattern drives
colder air into the region. A strong weather system will bring gusty
winds Thursday and valley rain/mountain snow Thursday night into
Friday with some off and on showers lingering into Saturday, mainly
east of Tucson. Expect 20 foot wind speeds 15-20 mph Thursday and
Friday with local gusts 30+ mph. After a break in the weather
another storm system looks to impact Arizona early to the middle of
next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 11 PM MST Friday for
AZZ510-511-514.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet

When: February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 29, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme (D3) drought category continued across far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during February. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains.

While rain occurred on numerous occasions in February, with above normal rain for most of southeast Arizona, lesser rainfall occurred in the area of extreme drought near the New Mexico border. February monthly totals in the areas of extreme drought ranged from 0.5 to 2.0, with the highest amounts in the Chiricahua mountains. These amounts were generally 25 to 100 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings were in the 30th to 70th percentile ranking in most areas through February.

Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When: February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 29, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme (D3) drought category continued across far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during February. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains.

While rain occurred on numerous occasions in February, with above normal rain for most of southeast Arizona, lesser rainfall occurred in the area of extreme drought near the New Mexico border. February monthly totals in the areas of extreme drought ranged from 0.5 to 2.0, with the highest amounts in the Chiricahua mountains. These amounts were generally 25 to 100 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings were in the 30th to 70th percentile ranking in most areas through February.

Drought, Chiricahua Mountains

When: February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 29, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Chiricahua Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme (D3) drought category continued across far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during February. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains.

While rain occurred on numerous occasions in February, with above normal rain for most of southeast Arizona, lesser rainfall occurred in the area of extreme drought near the New Mexico border. February monthly totals in the areas of extreme drought ranged from 0.5 to 2.0, with the highest amounts in the Chiricahua mountains. These amounts were generally 25 to 100 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings were in the 30th to 70th percentile ranking in most areas through February.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2024 Every state in 2024 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, February 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1162495, 1162496, 1162497.