In early December, a north Pacific low tracked into Southcentral Alaska, shifting winds southerly and increasing temperatures and precipitation chances. Temperatures aloft rose above freezing while surface temperatures remained below freezing in the Anchorage and Mat-Su Valley regions.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
In early December, a north Pacific low tracked into Southcentral Alaska, shifting winds southerly and increasing temperatures and precipitation chances. Temperatures aloft rose above freezing while surface temperatures remained below freezing in the Anchorage and Mat-Su Valley regions. This had the effect of transitioning precipitation that fell into freezing rain. Roads across the aforementioned regions became slick, particularly in neighborhoods and back roads that had prior snow/ice cover. A fatal accident off the Parks Highway occurred with State Troopers noting that weather was a major factor.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 4, 5:29 AM AKST, 9 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 529 AM AKST Wed Dec 4 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Key Points: * Winter Weather Advisory for snow and freezing rain for Copper River Basin south of Glennallen until 9 AM AKST Wednesday * Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain for the Susitna Valley until 3 AM AKST Thursday * Areas of mixed, wintry precipitation return to Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su Valleys late tonight into early Thursday morning. Discussion: The next in a series of shortwaves and attendant surface fronts is lifting north from the Gulf of Alaska over the coastal mountains of Southcentral this morning. The shortwave and surface low will move from near Augustine Island this morning into Southwestern Alaska. Precipitation along the coast will become lighter as both features weaken. The northward progression of the shortwave will allow for some southeasterly gaps winds to sweep across Anchorage and into the southern half of the Copper River Basin around noon. The northerly winds around Palmer this morning may also become southeasterly for a time. These winds will shut off and become northerly again by this evening, allowing the resultant warmer temperatures to cool off slightly for tonight. There may even be a few breaks in the clouds across parts of interior Southcentral tonight as a weak upper level ridge noses into the region ahead of the next system. With the shortwave moving northwest and a ridge trying to build in winds aloft will become more east-southeasterly, allowing any precipitation to remain upsloped along the higher terrain of the coastal mountains and Alaska Range this afternoon through late tonight. By late Wednesday night into Thursday night, an additional shortwave trough will swing in from the south. A lingering surface trough over the eastern gulf underneath will begin to slide west as the upper-level wave advances toward Southcentral. A surface low is then expected to spring up along this front as it moves south of the Kenai Peninsula. A second, stronger low will deepen as it drives north toward the Copper River Delta. The upper-level shortwave and both surface lows will then move north over Southcentral for Thursday morning. The bulk of the precipitation will fall from Prince William Sound to the Copper River Basin with rain along the coast and a wintry mix from Thompson Pass north to Glennallen. Precipitation type and amount becomes less clear over Cook Inlet north to the Susitna Valley as the weaker of the two lows moves inland. Most guidance has this low quickly weakening and opening into a trough as it lifts over the Anchorage Bowl. This solution would allow for more widespread precipitation. Other guidance tries to hold onto a more consolidated low as it lifts more slowly to the north. This would likely allow for a longer period of downsloping and keep the bulk of any wintry precipitation from reaching the north of Kenai until mid Thursday morning. This solution also keeps warmer air over Cook Inlet, meaning any delay in the northward progression of the low could result in a better chance for rain as opposed to a rain/freezing rain/sleet mix. Confidence remains low with either solution; however, given that temperatures are likely to stay around freezing tonight into the first half of Thursday, areas of mixed precipitation from Kenai north to Talkeetna cannot be ruled out. -TM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)... **** Winter Weather Advisories for freezing rain remain in effect through Wednesday evening / Thursday afternoon across Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. **** A series of lows moving through the AK Pen into Bristol Bay through Friday will bring reinforcing shots of warmer air and waves of moisture into SW AK, the AK Pen and the Central Aleutians. A ridge builds in to the Western Aleutians into tomorrow afternoon before another round of rain arrives lasting through Friday evening. Since midnight, observations across the AK Pen and SW AK through 4:00 am today show widespread isolated rain, freezing rain and snow for King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, and Pilot Point. This supports sounding information in the area. Also, nighttime microphysics showed waves of clouds moving through the region and areas of fog along the Bristol Bay coastline during this time. Low ceilings, mist, patchy fog and precipitation will persist through the day tomorrow in many areas of SW AK and the AK Pen. Winter weather advisories are in effect for frozen precipitation. Offshore winds in the Bristol Bay change to onshore winds this evening through tomorrow afternoon with gusts in the 15 to 20 knot / 15 to 25 mph range as a weak low moves through Bristol Bay. Elsewhere, southeasterly winds through Newhalen and Kokhanok ranging from and 25 to 35 mph through late this evening can be expected. Cold air returns to SW AK and the AK Pen Friday. As the aforementioned lows and waves of moisture over through the Aleutians, patchy fog, rain and snow showers are expected. A brief respite from the rain showers in the Western Aleutians continues into tomorrow evening before another low moves into the area causing a returns of rains showers through Friday. -DJ && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... A closed upper level low exits the Southeastern Gulf Saturday. High pressure extends across Interior Alaska through Tuesday. Over the Bering, conditions become less chaotic as a closed North Pacific low begins its track along the Aleutians and dissipates South of the Alaska Peninsula late Sunday. Deterministic model blends carry the features through Sunday, with the ECMWF and Canadian means picking up the tracks and strengths through the end of the forecast period. The overall pattern becomes less busy as the number of shortwaves is reduced. An elongated West-East trough takes up across the Bering through Tuesday. On the surface, a linger closed low near Prince William Sound adds moderate rain to the coastal areas with some snow further inland Saturday. A North Pacific low closes in on the Central Aleutians, brings some areas of snow before changing to widespread moderate rain. Snow moves into the Bering and Southwest Alaska, while the rain pushes over the AKPEN and Kodiak Island through Sunday. The rain continues along the Southcentral coast, with areas of moderate to heavy rain over Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula Monday, spreading over Prince William Sound and the rest of Southcentral coast through Tuesday. Areas of snow extend towards the Alaska Range, with mixed precipitation possible over the Chugach Mountains. && .AVIATION... PANC...Wind shear is expected to continue through mid-morning until winds shift southerly. The Turnagain Arm winds pick up early this afternoon with 10kt winds gusting to 20kts. Winds will shift back to northerly by late afternoon/early evening. Precipitation moves in tonight. There is some uncertainty regarding precipitation type, but anticipate a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and snow. &&
3 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
NWS employees reported slick back roads across Anchorage the morning of December 5th. Ice accumulated on trees, bushes, and power lines on the south edge of Midtown. Temperatures dropped below freezing overnight December 5th into December 6th which prompted refreezing of water on roadways, creating additional slick road conditions.
The Talkeetna ASOS (PATK) reported freezing rain between 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM AKST on December 5th. Road conditions along the Parks Highway according to Alaska 511 was very difficult from Susitna North to Talkeetna and south of Cantwell. Hazardous road conditions were reported south of Susitna North to Houston. Temperatures dropped below freezing overnight December 5th into December 6th which prompted refreezing of water on roadways, creating additional slick road conditions.
The Palmer ASOS Station (PAAQ) reported freezing rain between 6:00 AM to 11:30 AM AKST on December 5th. An NWS employee of the Alaska Region Headquarters reported that Big Lake was receiving a bout of freezing rain at 7:30 AM AKST December 5th. A fatal traffic accident was reported off the Parks Highway with State Troopers noting that weather was a major factor in the incident. The two vehicles involved in the incident were a Chevrolet Silverado pickup with two persons and a Toyota Sequia with one person. The male driver of the Chevrolet survived with serious injuries while the female passenger was declared deceased at the scene. Investigations revealed that the Chevrolet lost control on icy roads and collided with the Toyota Sequia in the early morning of December 5th. Freezing rain was falling and roads were still accruing ice at the start of the investigation. An article about the incident can be found here: https://www.countryjournal2020.com/2024/12/crash-kills-woman-on-knik-goose-bay.html.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Weather, Matanuska Valley | 2024-12-04 | 64 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1229831, 1229833, 1229834.